GRAINS * World grain production is forecast up more than 7 percent in 1989/90, with U.S. output rising 38 percent and foreign up 3 percent. While U.S. production rebounded strongly from the 1988 drought, weather problems, especially in the Great Plains, limited the gains. Global grain consumption is forecast up almost 3 percent in 1989/90, leading to another drawdown in world stocks to their lowest level since 1980/81. * World 1989/90 grain trade is forecast up 2 percent from last year and the largest since 1984/85. USSR imports are expected to drop slightly from last year, but remain well above the mid-1980's. Thus, this year's gain will come from regions such as North Africa and the Middle East and Eastern Europe. United States will capture almost 50 percent of world trade in 1989/90, compared with only 35 percent in 1985/86. * The World wheat production is up 7 percent in 1989/90. Foreign output is 6 percent above last year because of larger crops in Canada, India, the USSR, China, the EC, and elsewhere. Global wheat use is forecast to rise 1 percent but only slightly exceed production. Thus, global stocks may drop 2 percent to their lowest level since 1981/82. Global wheat trade is forecast up slightly as larger imports by a number of countries offset lower imports by the USSR and China. The U.S. share, however, may drop to 36 percent from 39 percent in 1988/89. * U.S. wheat output is up 12 percent in 1989/90. While U.S. wheat exports may drop 8 percent, total use is forecast 14 percent above production. Thus, U.S. ending stocks will be the smallest since 1974/75. Farm prices will be 10 to 15 cents per bushel above the $3.72 in 1988/89. * World coarse grain production is forecast up 10 percent in 1989/90, but foreign output is down marginally because of smaller crops in the EC, South Africa, China, and a number of other countries. World use, however, may rise 4 percent and exceed output by percent, leading to a 17-percent drop in stocks. World stocks will be the lowest since 1983/84. World trade is projected up 6 percent, led by gains in Eastern Europe, Korea, Mexico, and a number of other countries. U.S. exports may rise 9 percent and capture 67 percent of world trade, up from last year's 65 percent. * U.S. 1989/90 feed grain production rose 48 percent, but supplies are only up 1 percent because of lower carryin stocks. With both domestic use and exports up, total use will exceed production and may lead to a 25-percent drop in stocks. Ending stocks, however, will equal 2.5 months of use. Corn prices are forecast at $2.20-$2.40, compared to $2.54 in 1988/89. * Global 1989/90 rice production is up 3 percent, because of record foreign production. Global use is forecast up 3 percent, slightly below production. World trade is projected to drop 9 percent from 1988/89 but the U.S. share may hold at 19 percent. * U.S. rice production is down 3 percent as lower area offset larger yields. Although exports are forecast down 4 percent, total use may be 8 percent above the smaller crop. Thus, ending stocks may drop 29 percent to their lowest level since 1980/81. |