Earth at a Crossroads: Paths to a Sustainable FutureWe are fast becoming a global society. Flagging economies and social problems, environmental pollution and ecological destruction are burdens that fall on the shoulders of our international community. As we stand on the threshold of the twenty-first century, we search for cooperative answers to take us through the next millennium, and are confronted with the task of establishing a future that is both environmentally and socially sustainable. Earth at a Crossroads offers an integrated view for the development of human society within the natural environment on which it depends for support. The book stresses the dynamic and interconnected nature of feedback processes, traces possible future paths of societal development and their impacts, determines their sustainability, and points at necessary changes. Two alternative visions of the future are presented: Path A resulting from continuation of current trends, and a contrasting Path B that would result from adhering to principles of sustainability and protection of the natural system in the interests of future generations. This book will become an important reference in the discussion of global society's path into the next millennium. It will be a valuable read for anyone looking forward to a healthier world, and a well-thumbed resource for environmental scientists and policy-makers. Hartmut Bossel received his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering at the University of California at Berkeley. He is the author of ten books and over 300 papers. His research includes studies of agricultural policy for the German Bundestag. |
Contents
Prologue | xi |
CONCEPTS AND TOOLS | 1 |
Mapping the future | 3 |
Major concerns | 6 |
Globalization | 8 |
Dynamics | 10 |
Constraints | 12 |
Future paths | 14 |
Competition | 168 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 175 |
Partnership | 178 |
Reality check for Path B | 186 |
Individual development | 190 |
Competition | 191 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 196 |
Partnership | 200 |
Choice | 15 |
Action | 16 |
Riverbeds of the future | 17 |
Rules for defining scenarios and future paths | 18 |
Constraints of societal development | 20 |
Riverbeds of the possible | 23 |
Two visions of the future | 26 |
a first look | 32 |
Understanding dynamics | 34 |
A world of systems | 35 |
System components | 42 |
System structure determines system dynamics | 47 |
Change in a changing environment | 58 |
Patterns of change | 61 |
Points to remember when thinking about the future | 67 |
Assessing progress | 70 |
The search for indicators | 72 |
Orientors of system viability | 74 |
the need for ethics | 85 |
Discounting the future? | 94 |
Constructing a system of indicators for sustainable development | 98 |
A final note | 107 |
TWO VISIONS OF THE FUTURE | 111 |
Infrastructure | 115 |
Competition | 116 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 126 |
Partnership | 129 |
Reality check for Path B | 137 |
Economic system | 142 |
Competition | 143 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 152 |
Partnership | 154 |
Reality Check for Path B | 163 |
Social system | 167 |
Reality check for Path B | 205 |
Government | 208 |
Competition | 209 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 216 |
Partnership | 219 |
Reality check for Path B | 226 |
Environment resources future | 231 |
Competition | 232 |
Sustainability check for Path A | 237 |
Partnership | 240 |
Reality check for Path B | 245 |
FROM VISION TO ACTION | 249 |
World views and principles | 251 |
the paradigm trap | 258 |
Driving processes and principles of the two paths | 261 |
Viability and sustainability of the two paths | 263 |
Obstacles to sustainable development | 266 |
Path diversity and path transition | 268 |
Summary and conclusions | 270 |
Chapter 12 Agenda for change | 275 |
1 Indicators for sustainable development | 282 |
2 Efficient technologies | 288 |
3 Education and information | 293 |
4 Regionalization of economic activities | 295 |
5 Population control | 297 |
6 Equitable distribution of work | 299 |
7 Rights of affected systems | 300 |
8 Participatory democracy | 301 |
Epilogue | 304 |
Further reading | 309 |
315 | |
323 | |
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Common terms and phrases
accessibility space adapt allow anthroposphere assessment basic orientors become behavior Bossel Chapter check for Path computer networks constraints consumption contribute costs countries cultural decisions development paths diversity dynamic systems ecological ecological economics ecological footprint economic system ecosystems ecotaxes effective efficient energy environmental essential ethical example functions future paths global market goal human systems impacts important income increasing indicators individual development industry infrastructure innovation interaction interests labor logistic growth material means ment monetarization nations natural needs non-governmental organizations nonrenewable resources organizations participatory democracy particular Partnership pollution possible potential principles problems processes production protection recycling reduce renewable resources requires responsibility riverbed scenarios sector self-organization social service social system society species subsidiarity subsystems sustainable development sustainable path system environment system structure tasks technologies total system trade transportation unemployment unsustainable viability waste world view
References to this book
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies Richard Heinberg No preview available - 2005 |
Indicadores de Sustentabilidade: Uma AnĂ¡lise Comparativa Hans Michael van Bellen Limited preview - 2005 |