IS. nd analysis of known mineral deposits on the sea bottom c potential. veys of areas of marked data deficiency, such as the physical, chemical, biological, geological, and geophysical the temporal and spatial variations in the circulation areas in which reasonably good general survey data are rents with ships and drifting buoys. c observations of lower atmosphere and upper water d transmitting buoy systems. the exchange of momentum, heat, and water between ère. ents in the modification of ocean-atmosphere exchange s of the input of elements into the sea, history of such and the exchange of these elements through the ocean temporal and spatial variation of standing crop, and rganisms in areas where general survey data are avail ents in marine aquaculture. essels with automatic instrumentation for measurement emical, and biological properties of the surface layers of re. w and perhaps exotic methods and equipment for more scientific problems. e and other research programs will, in turn, require the lities, special tools, and training. v shore facilities at existing oceanographic laboratories, propriate new centers, and conversion of existing shore mary military use to research and technological use. oys as data-gathering devices capable of using satellite ns systems for reporting oceanographic, meteorological, servations. anned and automated deep-diving submersibles with make them useful for scientific and exploration purposes. oceanographic research vessels, both as general-purpose obsolete vessels, and as special-purpose platforms. in types of existing naval vessels, including submarines, exploration. procurement of oceanographic instruments for routine , chemical, and biological properties of the ocean waters f current velocities, and of the properties of the air-sea -precision navigation systems having extended coverage. ientific and technical personnel, and retraining of such Such an increase in research effort will require an increase in our capabilities in education and training. We interpret the ground rule, as stated in Secretary Wakelin's letter, that there must be adequate qualified personnel to manage and support any otherwise justifiable increased program, to mean that personnel with the necessary basic background in the primary sciences and in engineering need to be available. This can only be accomplished in the short time period contemplated by transfer to oceanographic programs of scientists, engineers, and other technical personnel now engaged in defense-related pursuits. In order for such personnel now engaged in other branches of science and technology to be effectively incorporated into the expanded oceanographic program, there will still be required an efficient means of imparting to them the fund of knowledge and techniques peculiar to the ocean. The existing educational and training programs will require considerable expansion. III. Preliminary budget estimates for research, survey, and applied-research programs warranting expansion as an aid to the peacetime economy In the following, the specific problem areas, listed in section II, are treated in slightly greater detail, and budgetary estimates made for each area. It is assumed that, in addition to the expanded efforts recommended here, existing programs associated with the peacetime economy, such as oceanographic fisheries investigations, oceanographic studies related to peacetime use of nuclear energy, and near-shore oceanographic studies associated with the public health and welfare (including recreation) would also be funded at somewhat increased levels consistent with increase in needs and opportunities in these areas. The specific areas recommended for substantial increase in effort follow. A. Detailed geophysical and geological exploration of the Continental Shelf, the continental slope and the ocean basins. The ultimate exploitation of the mineral resources under the more than two-thirds of the earth's surface covered by the oceans requires a firm basic understanding of the geologic structure and of the sediment layers. The Continental Shelf offers a likely area for early exploitation, and an expanded program of detailed geophysical study should start here. This work could extend concurrently or in sequence to the next most accessible area, the continental slope, and to the more economically inaccessible ocean basins. These basic geophysical studies would provide the information necessary for adequate planning of a drilling program in the sedimentary layers, and for the ultimate exploitation of the mineral resources of these layers. A comprehensive field program designed to provide detailed geophysical data on the continental margins of the United States would require 200 ship-years of effort at a cost of $200 million. If this effort were scheduled over a 5-year period, the annual cost of making the field study would be $40 million. In addition, evaluation of the results of the field measurements would require $20 million per year, for a total annual budget, over a 5-year period, of $300 million.3 B. Drilling the sediments of the Continental Shelf, the continental slope, and the ocean basins. In order to make full use of the geophysical data describing the thickness and extent of the various sedimentary layers on the shelf, the slope and in the ocean basins, samples of each of the layers must be obtained by means of core drilling. This sampling of the sediment layers will also provide direct evidence of the mineral content of the sediments. A systematic program of drilling, based on information supplied from the geophysical studies, would require several special drilling vessels, though for work on the shelf and at least part way down the slope, these special platforms would not have to be as complex as is now planned for the Mohole project. A comprehensive drilling program for the Continental Shelves (less than 1,000 fathoms) of the United States would require 30 ship-years at a total operating cost of $45 million. Over a 5-year period, the anual cost of obtaining the cores would thus be $9 million, to which would be added $5 million per year for analysis of core material and evaluation of the results, for a total annual cost of $14 million. Total 5-year program, $70 million. C. Detailed sampling and analysis of mineral deposits on the sea floor to evaluate their economic potential. Deposits of phosphorite nodules, manganese nodules, and perhaps other minerals exist on or near the surface of the sea floor and offer a large potential for the mining industry, but detailed sampling and analysis of the more promising of these deposits is required in order to evaluate their economic potential as ores. This will involve the designe of equipment for very closely spaced sampling, in a controlled manner, of these deposits, in an economical and efficient fashion. In the shallow water of the Continental Shelves, this can undoubtedly be accomplished by the use of samplers on the ends of wires lowered from the ship. In the deep ocean, however, it is probably essential that we develop free instruments to be used from surface ships so that a series of samples may be taken with greater rapidity. The large number of samples required for this sort of study would be subjected to routine processing in appropriate chemical and mineralogical laboratories. For just the continental margins. Double the figures to include the deep ocean. It is estimated that, in order adequately to sample some of the more promising known deposits during the 5-year period, the following will be required: (a) Facilities: 2 ships- Equipment and instrumentation for sampling (free gear, etc.) (b) Operating costs: Field efforts, 2 ships per year for 5 years__. Sample processing, data analysis and interpretation, at $2 million 1 Included in summary budget for item 3-a. D. Oceanographic surveys of areas of marked data deficiency, such as the South Pacific and polar seas, to include physical, chemical, biological, geological, and geophysical measurements. So little is known concerning extensive areas of the world oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, that prediction of possible economic benefits to the United States from studies of these regions is not now possible. However, it is a national goal of this country to be in the forefront of providing new knowledge of oceans for the future benefit of all mankind, and the international prestige of the United States would certainly gain from studies of these distant ocean areas, particularly if carried out in cooperation with countries bordering these areas. A reasonable goal for these studies would be to bring our knowledge of the vast expanses of the world oceans to a level comparable with that which we now possess for the North Atlantic, where probably the greatest density of observations in space and time now exists. Such a program would require a total field effort of 50 ship-years over a 5-year period, and require an annual expenditure of $10 million. In addition, shorebased evaluation of the data from such a field program would require $10 million per year, for a total annual expenditure over a 5-year period of $100 million. A recent Operations Research, Inc., report for the Coast and Geodetic Survey estimates $455 million as the cost of a 10-year program to survey the entire world oceans to U.S. standards including the cost of new ship construction. E. Detailed studies of the temporal and spatial variations in the circulation pattern and water-mass properties in areas in which reasonably good general survey data are available. Motion in the ocean, especially in the surface layers, is turbulent in character with eddies of all sizes passing energy both up and down from the large-scale current patterns through intermediate scales of motion associated in some cases with passing meteorological phenomena to smallscale turbulence and finally to the viscous-dissipation range. These transient motions are, in turn, associated with the temporal and spatial fluctuations in the chemical and physical properties of the ocean waters. An understanding of these fluctuations is important as part of the air-sea interaction study, and also from the standpoint of studies of the movement and mixing of introduced contaminants in the sea. Effective field studies at the time and space scale needed here will require the development of new observing tools, including moored recording buoys for current measurements. Well qualified physical oceanographers will be required for the analysis and interpretation of the observations. Such detailed studies of pertinent areas of the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the equatorial regions of these oceans will require a field effort involving 2 ship-years in each of the 5 years of study, costing $2 million per year. In addition, analysis and interpretation of data will require $2 million per year. Much of the cost of development and construction of special observing tools, such as moored recording buoys, is included in G below. Twentyfive to a hundred buoys will be needed depending on the experiment. This project would expend about $7 million for capital equipment (100 buoys at $50,000 each and $2 million for cables or other means of telemetering the data). F. Tracking ocean currents with ships and drifting buoys. A great deal of new information about the major current systems of the world could be obtained by tracing their paths with ships and drifting drogue buoys. The major current systems (Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Peru Current, the equatorial currents, etc.) might have combined lengths of some 100,000 miles. Directional changes and the conditions at the boundaries of these major currents must be known in order to understand their influence on the ocean and the atmosphere. Ships and buoys would be used for this task. Ten ships per year for 5 years 4 Preliminary assessment of the ocean survey shipbuilding program of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, Operations Research, Inc., Technical Report 299, Sept. 15, 1963. 48-071-65--12 ($10 million per year) would cost $50 million. Analysis and interpretation will cost an additional $50 million. Another $5 million is recommended for buoys and expendable equipment. G. Synoptic oceanwide observations of lower atmosphere and upper-water layers using recording and transmitting buoy systems. A recent study by the Weather Bureau suggests that the U.S. economy might save more than $100 million a year if it were possible to deliver accurate short-range forecasts. One problem with present numerical forecasting techniques is the lack of adequate data from the oceanic areas. On the land area of the United States there are 278 observing stations, or one station for every 13,000 square miles. A thousand oceanic weather buoys would provide one buoy for about every 40,000 square miles. Such an increase in the observing network should materially improve the short-range forecast. Cost estimate.-One oceanic buoy installed and operating costs $100,000 (present cost of MAMOS buoys). Hence, 1,000 such buoys would be $100 million. Mass production servicing should reduce this to about $75 million. Assuming a life expectancy for the buoys of 5 years, 200 buoys should be added to the system each year. Laying, maintenance, and servicing would require 10 ships a year (100 buoys per ship) or $10 million. Since the Weather Bureau is already collecting and processing large amounts of data, the extra costs for communications and preliminary analysis are estimated at $1 million a year. Thus the 5-year cost of this program would be $205 million. H. Detailed studies of the exchange of momentum, heat, and water between ocean and atmosphere. Assuming the buoy system outlined in program G above were in operation, some of the buoys could be especially instrumented to study the exchange of momentum, heat, and water between oceans and atmosphere. Increased knowledge of the air-sea interaction process promises to provide considerable improvement in long-range weather forecasting, another area of large potential economic benefit to the peacetime economy of the United States. Studies in this area will also require the development of new observational tools and the use of relatively large numbers of instrumented buoys, both free, drifting, and moored. Much of the ship time required for this study would be for the setting and maintenance of recording buoys. The cost of this expanded program, excepting the costs of buoy development and procurement, and the costs of special instrumentation, which are included in G would be $1 million per year for ship operation, and $1 million for data analysis and interpretation, giving a total cost of $10 million (not including buoys and equipment budgeted in program G) for the 5-year program. I. Some moderate-scale experiments in the modification of ocean-atmosphere exchange processes could, in some situations, greatly advance our understanding of the coupling between the two halves of the great heat engine that governs our environment. Climate control and modification must be approached cautiously and at first in small areas where is can be proven that the experiment is self-healing. The experiment might involve attempts to modify the surface tension of a limited area of the sea where onshore winds prevail and thus introduce more salt condensation nuclei into the atmosphere, or it might consist of encouraging upwelling, either by taking advantage of potential energy or by introducing power, as has successfully been done in lakes. The cost of a cautious series of such experiments would not be more than $1 million per year over a period of 5 years. J. Geochemical studies of the supply of marine elements and compounds, natural and manmade, inactive and radioactive, the history of such elements in the ocean, and the exchange of these materials through the ocean boundaries. In essence, what is needed is an understanding of the rates with which matter is or may be introduced into the ocean, the routes taken by matter in passing from the land masses through the ocean to the marine sediments and the reservoirs and subreservoirs occupied by these materials while in transit. In the final analysis, our understanding of these systems is testable by predictability and control in the systems. The knowledge obtained from such studies will have broad usefulness in other parts of oceanography for the indirect determination of the character and time scales of the deep ocean circulation, for use with geological and geophysical data in planning the ultimate exploration of the sea bottom for mineral wealth, and in the experimental design and interpretation of results in marine biochemistry. This work involves the employment of highly qualified chemists and the use of the most modern analytical tools. The ratio of the costs of manpower and equipment for shore-based analysis and evaluation |