The number covered by unemployment insurance usually is between 40 and 60 percent of the total unemployment at any given time. It varies somewhat due to the kind of economic situation that we have. However, the State employment security agencies, with assistance from us and from BLS, have worked out techniques for estimating unemployment that is not covered by their unemployment insurance law. Mr. OLSEN. Or those covered but not drawing any more? Mr. GOODWIN. That is right. That group is fairly easy to determine, because we have worked out over the years the attrition rate. We use the term "attrition." I am not sure it is a good term. It is a reflection of the period of time they remain unemployed after they lose their unemployment insurance. So that we have fairly good estimates on the number still unemployed of those who have exhausted unemployment insurance benefits. Mr. OLSEN. Could you give me a written discussion with reference to Montana, an analysis of Montana? Mr. GOODWIN. I would have to check on the exact situation. I would be glad to give you a letter on it. Mr. OLSEN. Whatever you can do. (The information requested follows:) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, U.S. EMPLOYMENT SERVICE, Hon. ARNOLD OLSEN, House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. DEAR CONGRESSMAN OLSEN : During the hearings for the Department of Labor held by your subcommittee on the afternoon of June 2, 1964, you requested that we furnish you with statements covering several matters which arose during the discussion. Part of your questions concerned the nature of the labor force data available for the State of Montana and the role of that State's unemployment compensation commission in producing this information. With respect to unemployment data, the commission prepares each month statewide estimates of total unemployment as well as an actual count of insured unemployment. The former figure, as pointed out during the hearings, is based upon an estimating technique developed by this Bureau and covers all unemployed persons, whether or not they are filing claims for unemployment insurance. latter figure relates only to those filing such claims. The Montana's total unemployment figures are published each month in the commission's publication Montana Labor Market. I am enclosing a copy of the latest edition for your information. These figures are also published annually, along with similar data for other States, in the "Manpower Report of the President and a Report on Manpower Requirements, Resources, Utilization, and Training" prepared by the U.S. Department of Labor. The latest edition of this publication was transmitted to the Congress under date of March 1964. In addition to these statewide data, the Montana Unemployment Compensation Commission prepares labor market reports showing recent employment and unemployment developments for each of its eight areas now covered by the area redevelopment program. One of these-Butte-is classified as a "smaller area" and submits bimonthly labor market reports. The other seven-Kalispell, Libby, Livingston, Phillipsburg, Red Lodge, Roundup, and Thompson Falls-are classified as "very small areas" and submit reports semiannually. No labor market reports are presently prepared for Billings and Great Falls, the two standard metropolitan statistical areas in Montana, since their levels of unemployment fall below the minimum required for eligibility under the area redevelopment program. Like most other State agencies, the Montana Unemployment Compensation Commission is doing a good job in preparing its statewide total unemployment estimates and in compiling its area labor market reports. I am enclosing a table showing the latest available unemployment data for the State as a whole and the various labor market areas mentioned above. In preparing these unemployment estimates, the State agency does not duplicate the work of the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics which, as you know, are responsible for the monthly Current Population Survey which provides estimates for the Nation as a whole only. As pointed out during the hearings, State employment security agencies base their estimates of total unemployment in the State on unemployment insurance claims data plus other information already available to them, whereas the total unemployment estimates for the Nation in the Current Population Survey are based on information secured during interviews with a sample of households throughout the country. Another question which was raised was how national coverage under the unemployment insurance program compares with that under the old-age and survivors insurance program. We indicated to you at that time that the unemployment insurance average figure for fiscal year 1963 was 47.3 million, and that we would provide you the figure for old-age and survivors insurance. The most recent information available (September 1963) indicates that 62.1 million persons had effective coverage under the OASI program. Finally, you requested that we furnish you with a statement concerning the conformance with Federal standards of State inquiries of the public which go beyond those required or recommended by this Bureau. I am enclosing a copy of this statement. I hope that the information contained in this letter and the several enclosures will serve to cover the various items of information you requested. If you should find that I have overlooked any item, or if the information furnished is not entirely clear to you, please advise and I will write you further. Sincerely yours, ROBERT C. GOODWIN, Administrator. 1"Smaller areas" report bimonthly and "very small areas" semiannually. No reports presently received covering the two standard metropolitan statistical areas in Montana, Billings and Great Falls. Mr. OLSEN. Mr. Clague. Mr. CLAGUE. Yes, sir. Mr. OLSEN. You may proceed. Mr. CLAGUE. I want to emphasize that a lot of times the use of words, our joint use of words, our indiscriminate use of words leads to a feeling of much more duplication than there is. What we try to do is avoid any duplication whatsoever. I would like to emphasize, since I used to be in the program Mr. Goodwin is now directing, that I was one of those responsible back in the nineteen thirties, in the early days of social security, for setting up the cooperative arrangement between the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Employment Security. They do something for us that we cannot do. They get a complete report from every employer that is covered in the unemployment compensation program once a year, a report on the number of workers he has on his payroll. We use that information to give us what we call a benchmark. For the first quarter of each year, we find out whether our sample-we just take samples of employers during the year-is giving good results. The State agency gets the complete count, as it were. A year later we adjust our figures to that count. So the BLS and BES have a good cooperative relationship which serves both our purposes. In terms of actual reports from employers, as I indicated, Mr. Goodwin's State agency cooperates in collecting the current sampling report from employers, however many there are in the sample in that State. The figures are collected on a form that has our name on it. It comes in to the State. The State takes the data off for their purposes. They use it for the State as a whole and local city purposes in Butte, Mont., or any other city. The data then comes to us in Washington, where we process it for the national sample-employment in copper mining, employment in automobile manufacturing or whatever. Thus we have a complete coordinated operation, both of us working together to use the same form. In respect to your unemployment, I want to say one more word because you raised that point with Mr. Goodwin. We in our work, in cooperation with the Census Bureau, collect the national figures, which we publish every month, from a national sample of households, from whom we get broad-scale information on total number of unemployed in the United States. Those figures will be coming out later this week. In the localities like Butte or any other city, Mr. Goodwin does not have any such report as that. He works up in his local employment security agency estimates of the unemployed not covered by unemployment compensation. That is why you can see for Butte and for other cities a percentage of unemployed which includes those drawing benefits plus an estimate for those not drawing benefits. Mr. OLSEN. Who makes that estimate? Mr. CLAGUE. They make that estimate locally on the basis of instructions coming from Mr. Goodwin's staff. We in the BLS have no information in that detail. Mr. OLSEN. I do not think they do. That is why I asked Mr. Goodwin to give me a letter. Mr. GOODWIN. I will give you the specific facts on Montana. I apologize for not having them with me. Mr. OLSEN. Do the best you can. I do not want to worry you about it. I want to know about it. I do not want to cause a lot of paperwork either. I hope this is possible out of existing paperwork. How about it, Mr. Clague? The unemployment statistics, are they not collected for you by the Bureau of the Census? Mr. CLAGUE. Yes; we pay them for it. We get appropriations from the Appropriations Committee, and we buy it from them; there is no duplication there. Mr. OLSEN. Where do they get it? Mr. CLAGUE. They collect it from the families which they visit in the homes. They get the information on who is at work, who is looking for work, who is not in the labor force. Mr. OLSEN. How often do they do that? Mr. CLAGUE. Once a month they visit about 35,000 families. That is the basic monthly report on the labor force that provides the unemployment rates for the United States, as well as the figures on employment and total labor force. Mr. JOHANSEN. Do I understand, Mr. Clague, that the Bureau of Employment Security conducts or sponsors a large number of labor market and other surveys in which the surveys are actually conducted by the State or local agencies? Mr. GOODWIN. Yes. Mr. JOHANSEN. But financed by Federal funds? Mr. GOODWIN. Right. Mr. JOHANSEN. Is clearance for these surveys secured from the Bureau of the Budget? Mr. GOODWIN. We have a reporting system which involves the standard metropolitan areas. As you know, these are the largest metropolitan areas in the country. That whole program is cleared and approved by the Bureau of the Budget. Mr. JOHANSEN. Suppose you decide to add some specific survey and you enlist the aid of the State or local agency, which specific survey is financed by Federal funds. In other words, in order to augment or add to the set of surveys a new one, is that addition cleared with the Bureau of the Budget? Mr. GOODWIN. My understanding on this point, subject to correction by my associates here, is that we are required to clear this with the Bureau of the Budget if it is of general application. If this is a matter of our calling a State employment security agency and asking them for specific information about an area, I am under the impression that we do not have to clear that. These are not surveys, it is part of the regular area employment program, not special surveys. Mr. JOHANSEN. How do you obviate what I understand is the provision of the Federal law in this matter that these surveys, any survey, must be cleared with the Bureau of the Budget? The law reads: No Federal agency shall conduct or sponsor the collection of information upon identical items from ten or more persons other than Federal employees considered as such unless in advance of adoption or revision of any plans or forms to be used in such collection, the agency shall have submitted to the Director such plans or forms * * Mr. GOODWIN. With us, this does not require a survey. It requires our obtaining information from the State employment security agency that gets this information as part of operating its particular law. (Further information follows:) STATEMENT ON STATE INQUIRIES AND THEIR CONFORMANCE WITH FEDERAL STANDARDS The Bureau of Employment Security has always regarded State inquiries of the public, which go beyond those required or recommended by the Bureau, as not falling withing the purview of the Federal Reports Act of 1942. The Bureau of the Budget concurs with this opinion. From the beginning of the program most State agencies, while making maximum use of all Bureau required or recommended inquiries, have had frequent need to supplement these inquiries for their own State and local office program operation purposes. They not only have a real need to do so, but as pointed out in the last paragraph of page 1 of my statement for the record, "The laws which established the State unemployment insurance programs authorize the State agencies to collect payroll taxes and to secure such information from employers and job applicants as is necessary to carry out their responsibilities." Hence, while we have been diligent in securing Bureau of the Budget approval of all State inquiries required or recommended by us, we have not attempted to control those sponsored by the State agencies themselves. In fact, at the request of some of the States many years ago, we provided extra lines and columns on several of our required local office reports which we labeled "For State and local use" in order to facilitate the collection of State-sponsored information. Mr. JOHANSEN. We will pursue this with the Bureau of the Budget. Mr. WERTS. I might clarify this by saying any information gathered for the Bureau of Employment Security by a State employment security agency which requires going to the public is under the procedure for clearance with the Bureau of the Budget. Mr. JOHANSEN. That is responsive. You have testified as to how many reports you have dropped out of this, 12? We had two there. Mr. GOODWIN. I am not completely sure of the criteria. We list in here nine reports where there have been simplifications and consolidations. I think not all of those were eliminated. I cannot tell from this report. Mr. JOHANSEN. I was trying to add up 12 that have been eliminated. Mr. WERTS. Mr. Braver, our expert on this, indicates 2 were eliminated by BLS and 10 by BES, as referred to in this report to the Bureau of the Budget. We will identify those for the record if you like. Mr. JOHANSEN. It just occurred to me if you had given the Bureau of the Budget or the President the report, it might be rather simple to get it in the record. Mr. WERTS. We have it right here and we will provide it for the record. (The information follows:) IDENTIFICATION OF 12 REPORTS ELIMINATED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (Excerpted from material submitted to the Bureau of the Budget as part of its special review of reports) TITLE OF REPORTS BES Vehicle Inspection and Trip Reports.1 BES Identification Card of Mexican Agricultural Workers in Transit.' See footnote 1 on p. 377. |