TABLE J. 1-ALASKAN COMMUNITIES WITH A POPULATION OF 25 OR MORE BY ETHNIC COMPOSITION FOR THE YEARS 1939, 1950, 1960, AND 1968 1 Data for 1939, 1950, and 1960 was extracted from the census reports for those years. 1968 data was derived from Estimates of Native Population in Villages, Towns, and Boroughs of Alaska, Federal Field Committee for Development Planning in Alaska, Anchorage, January 1969. Although transportation is only one of many factors that has created this situation, it is a major economic deterrent to part-time living in Native areas. If there are ever to be mixed villages in Alaska, again on any scale, it will probably have to be based in large part on the urban dwellers and their second homes and therefore will rely upon cheap and frequent transportation being available. Of the present 33 places that were counted as mixed in 1968, 17 were located either on the main road network or the marine highway system. Of the 141 locations 80 percent or more Native in population only 2 are on the main transportation network, these being the villages of Eklutna (pop. 35) and Mentasta Lake (pop. 75). There are many other factors weighing on the above situation, such as location of transportation investment and the historical development of Alaskan towns. However, it appears that the provision of cheap transportation does aid in maintaining existing mixed communities. There are three possible fates for settlement patterns in Alaska: (1) the urbanizing trend can continue for the non-Native population only, leaving us with urban aggregations of non-Natives and Native villages; (2) the urbanizing trend can continue for all Alaskans, leaving us eventually with no villages; and (3) there can be a movement back into the villages by the non-Native population, either on a full-time or part-time basis. The major benefits of the last alternative are that the non-Natives, those having some social consciousness and desire to learn, would meet and learn to know the Native and his culture on his home ground; the Native would learn to know non-Natives other than officials, teachers, or exploiters-while still in the village environment; and the social enrichment offered by diversified cultures would be kept in Alaska and most Alaskans could be influenced by that diversity. There must be many transformations in Alaskan society and economics before any trend towards mixed villages can again be developed. There is a very good chance that the urbanizing trend is irreversible. However, without cheap and frequent access to the villages, there is no chance at all. As shown before, serving any substantial numbers of villages by road, especially those villages in western and northern Alaska, will require a tremendous capital investment and several years to implement. The air system is capable of almost immediate response to this problem. AIR CARGO Alaskans have long hoped for a breakthrough in air cargo rates. The advent of such aircraft as the Lockheed C5A and its promise of 9 cents per ton mile total operating costs raises visions of $55 per ton rates from Anchorage to Nome in place of the $180 per ton rates now in use. Such costs would make air cargo more than competitive with marine transportation for all but bulk cargos such as petroleum products and ores. However, despite the cheaper costs held forth by the jumbo jets, there are many, many other problems which must be solved in Alaska before the millenium of cheap freight rates comes to pass. One of the foremost of these problems is that of cargo aggregation. There are few of Alaska's smaller communities that will need air cargo hauls of over 100 tons with any frequency unless they receive all freight including petroleum products by air. Larger locations such as Nome, Barrow, and Bethel might need one or two trips per month. In contrast, some smaller communities do not use 100 tons of general cargo per year. In 1968, there were 21,911.83 tons of air freight originated at Alaskan airports by certificated air carriers. No destination cargo records were available for this study. Of the above total. 17.607.13 tons originated at the Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Ketchikan, Annette, Sitka and Kodiak airports, leaving 4.304.70 tons for all other Alaskan points.' The ratio of off-loaded freight to on-loaded freight was computed over three years (1964–66) for five villages in western Alaska. These places are transportation centers serving clusters of satellite communities. The ratio was 3.17 times as much off-loaded as originated freight handled through these airports." The total air freight flown into rural Alaska by certificated carriers would appear to be about 13,000 tons (4,304.70 tons × 3.17). Since most of the 17,607.13 tons originated at the major cities would be destined for the smaller communities, this seems a reasonable assumption. About 9,750 tons (3.062.22 tons 3.17) goes to those western and northern areas not served by the main road system or the marine highway. The amount of air cargo handled by noncertificated carriers could not be obtained for 1968. A total subsidy of all present air cargo for Western Alaska would probably require under $2 million." This is not suggested as a solution but is a fiscal measure of the problem. Obviously, if air cargo is heavily subsidized and dropped well below surface rates, there would be a sudden shift to air of the entire cargo requirements of the area, provided sufficient airlift capacity was available. If air freight rates did become close to surface rates, many places would switch in order to gain more frequent service and thus reduce inventory and storage costs. It is far more likely, therefore, that Alaskan communities will rely upon such cargo airlift as the present Lockheed Hercules or other types with about a 20-ton payload when a requirement exists for a pure cargo haul, in order to keep service frequency as high as possible. The experience gained from the North Slope airlift thus far has not indicated that large cargo aggregations in themselves bring about substantially cheaper freight rates. During the last half of 1968 and the first five months of 1969, Hercules aircraft were in short supply and greatly in demand. Air cargo originations from Fairbanks went over 10.000 tons per month in the spring of 1969. By contrast, in 1968, air cargo originations by certificated carriers for all of Alaska averaged less than 2,000 tons per month. Due to the competition for aircraft. freight charges were held at $240 to $270 per ton for a 330 mile airlift (72.7 to 81.8 center per ton mile). By December of 1969, the demand for airlift had slackened and unemployed Hercules lined the runway at Fairbanks. By March, 1970, rates of $144 per ton were being quoted from Fairbanks to Prudhoe Bay (43.6 cents per ton mile). It has been generally conceded that for most small to medium hubs, cargo/ passenger combinations are more profitable than all freight operations. The Alaskan experience thus far tends to confirm this, since even under heavy cargo conditions the lowest rates for all freight carriers (43.6 cents per ton mile) is This is the L500," Starline (Lockheed Aircraft Co. magazine), July/August 1969, D. 16. Costs would be $49.50 (9 cents times 550 miles) plus a profit margin of $5.50 in this illustration. Containerized ground handling is necessary to secure these rates. Wien Consolidated cargo rates are now $9 per 100 pounds for freight over 100 pounds from Anchorage to Nome. Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Route Carriers: Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31, 1968, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. The five towns were Bethel, Dillingham. King Salmon. St. Mary's, and Aniak. Originated freight totaled 34.242.33 pounds, while destination totals were 108,452.51, giving a ratio of 3.17. Data obtained from the Alaska Division of Aviation, Anchorage, Alaska, who obtained it from original air carrier records. Op. cit. CAB and FAA. In 1968 there were 2.441.09 tons originated at the 13 main regional hubs for western Alaska; namely: Aniak, Barrow. Bethel, Cold Bay, Dillingham, Fort Yukon. Galena, King Salmon, Kotzebue, McGrath, Nome, Tanana, and Unalakleet, while only 621.13 tons originated at the 130 smaller villages in this area. It can be assumed that most of the freight originating at the regional hubs was destined for their satellite communities. The $2 million figure is based upon destination freight of 9.750 tons and originated freight of 3,000 tons x $150 average cost per ton. The average cost per ton was based on the per ton cost to McGrath ($120). Aniak ($200). Dillingham ($200), Bethel ($260). and Nome ($180). This average figure of $190 was then reduced to allow for the short haul shipment from the regional hubs to the satellites, which are 25 percent of the total for western Alaska. 30 percent more than the general over 100 pounds rate for the scheduled service between Anchorage and Nome (32.7 cents per ton mile). A breakthrough in air freight rates will require a substantial change in ground handling practices throughout Alaska but especially at the major transportation hubs. Centralization of air cargo facilities at Anchorage and Fairbanks plus consolidation of ground forwarding services has been recommended and seems to offer real savings. This has been resisted by the air carriers who prefer to operate individual cargo terminals and thus retain maximum company identification with shippers. The use of intermodal containers has been studied extensively. The requirement of seaborne container ships for modules that can be stacked necessitates a container that is too heavy for efficiet air cargo use. A lightweight container that meets the needs of all modes is needed to facilitate smooth and cheap modal interchanges or freight. One solution advanced is for a lightweight container for airlift that slips into the standard seaborne container. One of the most prevalent and persistent complaints heard in remote places is on the high tariffs charged bulky objects such as snow machines and boats. These rates are no doubt justified on a pure cost basis, but they constitute a definite factor in the ability of a rural family to improve its local transportation and generally upgrade its living conditions. The snow machine which costs $750 in Anchorage may cost close to $1,000 or more before it reaches some remote villages. Another problem of small villages is the resupply of gasoline, propane, explosives, and other cargo classified as dangerous. Often several months go by before they can be brought in on a regular flight. Normally, special charters are required. A lack of gasoline or propane imposes the same deterioration of living standards on the rural dweller as the loss of electricity does on the urban resident. A community which enjoys a bulk air freight rate of 4 cents per pound is considered to be in a favored position. Few have rates this low. Even this adds $80 per ton to freight that is already carrying transportation charges from its point of origin to one of the major centers, usually Anchorage or Fairbanks. The cost from Anchorage on may be double the rate from the contiguous states to Alaska. As a result the urban resident who enjoys an average family income three to four times greater than those of most villagers also benefits from a retail price structure about two-thirds of the rural prices. As an alternative to air cargo the bush resident frequently uses parcel post; indeed, almost half of his freight is shipped in this manner. 11 If he is in the right zone his rate may be half the air freight rate. This is still not cheap freight since most villages will still pay about 15 cents per pound for shipments from Anchorage or Fairbanks. There are limits on size and type of merchandise that hamper this alternative, but it has been used to transport a surprising variety of goods including bundles of dried fish, canned goods, and other items that will fit into a mail bag. Boeing Aircraft and Wien Consolidated Airlines conducted a joint study which showed a substantial reduction would be possible on air freight rates with the advent of the Boeing 737. These prices (shown in Table K) have not come to pass as yet. One factor that prevents their implementation is the inability of the Bethel and Dillingham airports to handle the 737 in its most efficient configuration. The reductions were based on an increase in the use of air freight as it became more competitive with surface costs. TABLE K-PROPOSED REDUCTION IN AIR FREIGHT RATE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE BOEING 737 11 Op. cit. CAB and FAA. Air mail originated at the 13 regional hubs of western Alaska. totaled 2.041.95 tons in 1968 compared to 2.441.09 tous of air freight. For the 130 smaller villages the air mail total was 618.35 tons and 621.13 tons of air cargo, an almost even match. The above proposal did nothing to alleviate the high costs from the above hubs to the outlying villages. No technological breakthrough has as yet been suggested for this situation. There is no known short-haul equipment presently being planned that will result in large reductions in cost. In summary, air freight costs to rural Alaska can decrease slightly as more efficiency is achieved with the present aircraft fleet. Large reductions will probably not occur as a result of all cargo operations except where high aggregations are possible. Such freight accumulations would occur only in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and during special short-term operations by resource locators. SUMMARY The transportation problems of rural Alaska are essentially those of high operating costs and low volumes. There are no spin-off benefits from systems connecting larger concentrations of population especially for Western and Northern Alaska. Solutions must be related to social or economic goals if any real improvement is to be achieved. The first set of alternatives to consider is whether the normal penalty exacted for distance from transportation centers shall be maintained. If Alaska is ever to achieve a reasonably equal price level throughout the state, something will have to be done to bring price levels at locations such as Bethel closer to those of Anchorage and Juneau. (See Table L.) |