Energy and Water Development Appropriations for 1982

AS A RESULT OF THE WORK PERFORMED IN THE SETS COMPUTER CODE PROJECT, AN IMPROVED VERSION OF THE SETS CODE HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED AND
MADE AVAILABLE FOR USE BY NRC CONTRACTORS AND PERSONNEL FOR PROJECTS REQUIRING AN EFFICIENT TOOL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX
SYSTEMS.

THE MAJOR RESULTS OF THE SETS PROGRAM HAVE BEEN

(1) DEVELOPMENT OF AN AUTOMATIC TREE DECOMPOSITION ALGORITHM WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE STANDARD VERSION OF SETS;

(2) DEVELOPMENT, IN PRELIMINARY FORM, OF BASIC MINIMAL CUT SET QUANTIFICATION PROCEDURES;

(3) DEVELOPMENT OF A STANDARDIZED VERSION OF THE SETS CODE FOR THE CDC 6600 COMPUTER, AND INSTALLATION OF THIS VERSION OF THE CODE AT THE BROOKHAVEN NATIONAL LABORATORY COMPUTER CENTER FOR USE BY NRC PERSONNEL; AND

(4) PREPARATION OF A SETS USERS' MANUAL ORIENTED SPECIFICALLY FOR THE FAULT TREE ANALYST.

THERE

THE IMPROVED VERSION OF THE SET EQUATION TRANSFORMATION SYSTEM (SETS) IS A COMPUTER CODE FOR EVALUATING LARGE FAULT TREES.
ARE CURRENTLY TWO ACTIVITIES WITHIN NRR THAT USE FAULT TREES AS AN ANALYSIS METHOD. THESE TWO ACTIVITIES ARE GENERAL TASK NO. A-17
AND THE VITAL AREA ANALYSIS. THE SETS CODE PROVIDES THE NRC STAFF WITH THE CAPABILITY TO INDEPENDENTLY AUDIT THE RESULTS OF
ANALYSES THAT ARE BASED ON FAULT TREES, ALTHOUGH IN THE CASE OF TASK NO. A-17, THE CONTRACTOR WHO DEVELOPS THE FAULT TREE ALSO USES
APPLYING FAULT TREE METHODS TO THE LICENSING PROCESS.
SETS CODE TO ANALYZE THE FAULT TREE. THE AVAILABILITY OF THE SETS CODE ALSO PROVIDES A TOOL FOR FUTURE USE BY THE NRC STAFF IN

THE SETS CODE IS AN IMPORTANT FEATURE IN THE METHODOLOGY (COMPUTER CODE) USED TO IDENTIFY TYPE I VITAL AREAS (I.E.. ".... THOSE AREAS
AREA).
WHEREIN SUCCESSFUL SABOTAGE CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED BY COMPROMISING OR DESTROYING THE VITAL SYSTEMS OR COMPONENTS LOCATED WITHIN AN
TYPE I VITAL AREAS ARE THE MOST SENSITIVE SECURITY AREAS IN THE PLANT AND REQUIRE THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF PHYSICAL PROTECTION.
IDENTIFYING THESE AREAS IS AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN THE STAFF'S EVALUATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY AT A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
OPERATING LICENSE REVIEWS.
THIS ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION IS CURRENTLY BEING USED FOR ALL OPERATING PLANT REVIEWS AND WILL ALSO BE AN ONGOING REQUIREMENT IN

*** NRR: IMPACT OF RESULTS ***

THE SETS CODE HAS NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LICENSING PROCESS BUT IN THE FUTURE IT WILL PERMIT THE MRC STAFF TO ANALYZE LARGE SYSTEMS
THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE TO BE ANALYZED BY LESS EFFICIENT OR LESS EFFECTIVE METHODS.

REQUIREMENTS OR A TIGHTENING OF AN EXISTING REQUIREMENT.
THE RESULTS OF THE MORE EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENCY COULD LEAD TO EITHER A RELAXATION OF EXISTING REQUIREMENTS OR COULD LEAD TO NEW

*** NKR : COMMENTS AND REMARKS ***

FAILURES.
THE SETS CODE IS ONE OF SEVERAL COMPUTER CODES THAT CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE FAULT TREES, INCLUDING EVALUATION FOR COMMON CAUSE
NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE HERE TO DETERMINE THE RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OR EASE OF USING THESE VARIOUS CODES.

RIL TITLE: CONCEPT COMPUTER CODE & CAPITAL COST/SULFUR COAL PLANTS
SPONSORING OFFICE(S) NRR

RES UNII

THE CONCEPT COMPUTER CODE AND CAPITAL COST FOR HIGH AND LOW SULFUR COAL PLANTS 1200 MWE

RES COMMENTS

RES. TECHNICAL LEAR

THIS MEMORANDUM TRANSMITS THE RESULTS OF COMPLETED RESEARCH UPDATING AND EXPANDING THE CONCEPT COMPUTER CODE FOR FORECASTING
CAPITAL COSTS OF HIGH AND LOW SULFUR COAL PLANTS - 1200 MWE THE ESTIMATED TOTAL BASE CONSTRUCTION COST FOR THE 1200 MHE (NOMINAL)
HIGH SULFUR COAL PLANT REFERENCE DESIGN IS $465,498,393 OR $378/KH BASED ON JULY 1, 1976 PRICES. THE ESITMATED TOTAL BASE
CONSTRUCTION COST FOR THE 1200 MWE (NOMINAL) LOW SULFUR COAL PLANT REFERENCE DESIGN IS $402,825,229 OR $324/KW BASED ON JULY 1,
1976 PRICES. THE TOTAL BASE CONSTRUCTION COST FOR THE COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT (1000 MHE NET OUTPUT) REFERENCE IS HASH-1230 WHICH
DID NOT HAVE FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION IS APPROXIMATELY $174,000,000 OR $174/KW, BASED UPON PRICES EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1971. THUS,
THIS 1977 STUDY INDICATES APPROXIMATELY A 87.9 PERCENT INCREASE IN THE COST OF THE PLANT IN TERMS OF /KW. THE STUDY AND ITS
METHODOLOGIES HAVE BEEN REVIEWED EXTENSIVELY WHILE IN PROGRESS BY THE RES PROJECT MANAGER AND VARIOUS STAFF MEMBERS FROM NRR.
RES RECOMMENDS THAT THE UPDATED METHODOLOGY BE USED BY NRR FOR APPLICATION TO THE IDENTIFIED REGULATORY NEED (RR-NRR-76-6).

THE PRINCIPAL APPLICATION OF THE INVESTMENT COST DATA IS TO UPDATE THE CONCEPT COMPUTER CODE. IN TURN THE CONCEPT UDE IS USED TO
ESTIMATE CAPITAL COST FOR DIFFERENT SIZE PLANTS, DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE COUNTY, DIFFERENT SCHEDULE LENGTH, DIFFERENT COMPLETION
DATES, DIFFERENT ESCALATION AND INTEREST RATES. IN ADDITION TO UPDATING CONCEPT THE DATA IS USED AS A GENERAL REFERENCE FOR SUCH
THINGS AS, COST OF COMPONENTS, QUANTITIES OF MATERIALS USED, TYPE AND QUANTITY OF LABOR, ETC.

*** NRR: IMPACT OF RESULTS ***

DURING FY 1977 44 REQUESTS WERE MADE FOR CONCEPT CODE RUNS AND 32 REQUESTS WERE MADE IN 1978. MOST REQUESTS INVOLVED RUNS FOR
SEVERAL SIZES OF COAL PLANTS AND ONE OR TWO NUCLEAR UNITS FOR DIFFERENT ESCALATION AND INTEREST RATES. THE USE OF THE CONCEPT
PERMITTED THE STAFF TO PERFORM THESE ANALYSIS MORE EFFICIENTLY AND QUICKLY THAN IF THE CONCEPT CODE WERE NOT AVAILABLE.

RIL TITLE: EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ON COMMUNITY GROWTH

RIL SUBJECT/DESCRIPTION

EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ON COMMUNITY GROWTH AND RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES

RES COMMENTS

AS PART OF A LONGER TERM REAEARCH PROJECT TO DEVELOP FORECASTING METHODS FOR ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS ON
LAND VALUES AND COMMUNITY GROWTH, THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR LAND AND WATER RESOURCES CARRIED OUT A STUDY OF
THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS ON LAND VALUES AND COMMUNITY GROWTH AT FOUR PREVIOUSLY-LICENSED STATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY DID NOT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE EFFECTS ON LAND VALUES OR COMMUNITY GROWTH.

AS PART OF THE COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LICENSING APPLICATIONS, THE NRC IS REQUIRED TO ASSESS THE LIKELY SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION OF NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE IMPACT OF OPERATING STATIONS ON LAND USE, PROPERTY VALUES, LAND USE PLANNING AND POPULATION CHANGE ARE EFFECTS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION FROM INTERVENORS AND HEARING BOARDS. THIS RESEARCH CONTRACT WAS INITIATED WITH THE INTENTION OF TESTING A METHODOLOGY FOR QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF STATION SITING ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES.

*** NRR IMPACT OF RESULTS ***

BECAUSE OF THE NON-RANDOM SELECTION OF THE STUDY SITE, GENERALIZABLE CONCLUSIONS CANNOT BE DRAWN; HOWEVER, FOR THE SITES INVOLVED THE RESULTS DO INDICATE THAT THE NUCLEAR STATIONS HAD NO MEASURABLE, ADVERSE IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL VALUES IN SURROUNDING AREAS. BESIDES ADDING TO THE STAFF'S GENERAL KNOWLEDGE, THE STUDY PROVIDED THE STAFF WITH A TESTED, OBJECTIVE, AND REPLICABLE METHODOLOGY FOR RETROSPECTIVELY DIMENSIONING PROPERTY VALUE IMPACTS AT NUCLEAR STATIONS. WITH RESPECT TO THIS POINT, THE STAFF INTENDS TO EVALUATE THE IMPACT OF THE ACCIDENT AT THREE MILE ISLAND ON PROPERTY VALUES USING A METHODOLOGY BASED ON THE PROCEDURE USED IN THE CONTRACT. THE METHODOLOGY AND CONCLUSIONS OF THIS RESEARCH INCREASED THE STAFF'S UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROCESS OF PROPERTY VALUE IMPACT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. CONTINUATION OF RESEARCH ON PROPERTY VALUE IMPACTS SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY RELIABLE METHODS FOR PREDICTING RESIDENTIAL VALUE IMPACTS IN SPECIFIC SITING CASES.

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Energy and Water Development Appropriations for 1982: Hearings ..., Part 4