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*** NRR : APPLICATION TO THE REGULATORY PROCESS ***
SEE COMMENTS/REMARKS.

*** NRR: IMPACT OF RESULTS ***

USER OFFICE REVIEWER: F. PAGANO

PAGE:

46

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OBTAINED.
THE KEY TO THE UTILITY OF EVALUATION MODELS IS THE RATIO OF THE EFFORT REQUIRED TO RUN THE MODEL TO THE USEFULNESS OF THE RESULTS
ALTHOUGH SAFEGUARDS EVALUATION MODELS DEVELOPED TO DATE TEND TOWARDS INORDINATE INPUT COMPLEXITIES BY COMPARISON WITH
OUTPUT UTILITY, EASI HAS BEEN A WELCOME EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND. CONSEQUENTLY, EASI HAS BEEN USEFUL AS AN AID TO LICENSING
DECISION MAKING, AND HAS BEEN DISTRIBUTED BY NRR TO THE POWER REACTOR LICENSEES AS AN AID IN PHYSICAL SECURITY SYSTEM DESIGN.
ADDITIONAL COMPUTER PROGRAMMING WHICH PERMITS THE USE OF COMPUTER GRAPHICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASI CODE MAY BE USEFUL FOR
PARAMETRIC DESIGN STUDIES, ALTHOUGH IT PROVIDES LITTLE ADDITIONAL UTILITY TO THE LICENSING REVIEWER. ADDITIONS AND FURTHER
VARIATIONS OF THIS SIMPLE TOOL APPEAR TO PROVIDE DIMINISHING RETURNS.

THE

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RIL TITLE: "FESEM" ADVERSARY SEQUENCE EVALUATION MODEL

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METHODS FOR FIXED-SITE THEFT AND SABOTAGE PREVENTION SYSTEMS.
RESEARCH HAS BEEN COMPLETED ON THE FORCIBLE ENTRY SAFEGUARDS EFFECTIVENESS MODEL (FESEM), IN RESPONSE TO A NEED FOR EVALUATIVE

A FORCIBLE ATTACK BY AN ADVERSARY INTENT ON CREATING AN ACT OF SABOTAGE OR THEFT.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING FIXED-SITE SECURITY SYSTEMS AS TO THEIR EFFECTIVENESS AGAINST
THE MODEL PROVIDES A FRAMEWORK FOR PERFORMING
COST EFFECTIVENESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DECISION POLICIES.
INEXPENSIVE EXPERIMENTS RELATED TO FIXED-SITE SECURITY SYSTEMS, FOR TESTING ALTERNATIVE DECISIONS, AND FOR DETERMINING THE RELATIVE

THE RESULT OF THE FESEM ANALYSIS INCLUDE ESTIMATES OF THE PROBABILITY OF SABOTAGE OR THEFT HINS CAND LOSSES) BASED ON ATTACK FORCE
OF THEFT, ETC.).
SIZE, ATTACK MOBILITY, AND TYPE OF ATTACK, COLLECTED STATISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH VARIABLE (E.G.. NUMBER OF WINS BY DEFENDERS
AND BY ATTACKERS FOR SUCCESSFUL SABOTAGE OR THEFT, ALARM TYPES FOR ALL RUNS, TIME REQUIRED FOR SUCCESSFUL SABOTAGE OR COMPLETION
A TRAINING PROGRAM HAS GIVEN IN

THE PROGRAM IS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE FOR NRC USE VIA AN ACCESS CODE NUMBER TO SANDIA'S COMPUTER.
FEBRUARY 1978 TO INTERESTED NRC PERSONNEL AND POTENTIAL USERS.

REQUIREMENTS, LICENSING, INSPECTION AND OTHER MONITORING OPERATIONS.
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE FESEM MODEL BE USED BY NMSS AND OTHER OFFICES AS AN ANCILLARY AID IN FORMULATING REGULATORY

OFFICE: NMSS IMPACT STATEMENT

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TEST APPLICATIONS ARE BEING CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE USER SUITABILITY.
SITE SAFEGUARDS.
THE RESULTS OF THESE EFFORTS HAVE BEEN USED IN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF IMPROVED EVALUATIVE METHODS FOR FIXED

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THE KEY TO THE UTILITY OF EVALUATION MODELS IS THE RATIO OF THE EFFORT REQUIRED TO RUN THE MODEL TO THE USEFULNESS OF THE RESULTS.
ALTHOUGH THE FESEM OUTPUT PROVIDED INFORMATION WHICH WOULD BE USEFUL IN THE DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY SYSTEMS FOR
POWER REACTORS, THE UTILITY OF SUCH INFORMATION (MUCH OF WHICH IS INTUITIVELY OBVIOUS TO A PHYSICAL SECURITY EXPERT) DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT THE EXTENSIVE EFFORT REQUIRED FOR INPUT PREPARATION AND EXECUTION OF THIS MODEL. IN ADDITION, THE ACCURACY OF
THE COMPUTED RESULTS CANNOT BE VERIFIED AS A RESULT OF THE LIMITED APPLICABILITY OF MILITARY-TYPE ENGAGEMENT MODELS TO THE PROBLEM
OF SABOTAGE OF A REACTOR FACILITY.

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THE RESULTS OF THE EFFORTS WILL BE USED IN DEVELOPMENT OF STANDARDS FOR SAFEGUARDS SYSTEMS AS WELL AS BY LICENSEES IN DEVELOPING
THEIR SYSTEMS AND BY NRC IN EVALUATING THOSE SYSTEMS.

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FRAP-53 IS A BEST-ESTIMATE COMPUTER CODE THAT CALCULATES THE THERMAL AND MECHANICAL RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS OF A NUCLEAR FUEL ROD
OPERATING UNDER STEADY-STATE POWER CONDITIONS, AND WAS DEVELOPED TO PROVIDE ACCURATE INITIAL VALUES OF FUEL-ROD PARAMETERS FOR
INPUT INTO TRANSIENT ANALYSIS CODES SUCH AS FRAP-T AND RELAP. IT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPLYING THE HOT-STATE VALUES OF SUCH
QUANTITIES AS

1.

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STORED ENERGY

RADIAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTIONS AT GIVEN AXIAL LOCATIONS

TOTAL FISSION GAS RELEASE

ROD INTERNAL GAS PRESSURE AND COMPOSITION

CLAD DEFORMATION

AMOUNT OF PELLET-CLAD INTERACTION (PCI)

FUEL DEFORMATION (SWELLING, DENSIFICATION, RELOCATION, AND THERMAL EXPANSION) FUEL-CLAD GAP SIZE AND GAP CONDUCTANCE

CLAD-CORROSION AND HYDRIDING.

ALL OF THESE QUANTITIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON THE OPERATING HISTORY OF THE ROD, AND EACH WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE
PREDICTED AND MEASURED RESPONSE OF A FUEL ROD DURING A TRANSIENT. THE CODE, THEREFORE, HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO PROVIDE THESE AND
OTHER QUANTITIES FOR ANY GIVEN POWER HISTORY AS INITIAL CONDITIONS TO THE TRANSIENT CODES.

THE VERIFICATION OF THE FRAP-S3 CODE HAD TWO MAJOR OBJECTIVES: (1) TO DETERMINE THE CODE PERFORMANCE IN PREDICTING THE AVAILABLE,
QUALIFIED, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, AND (2) TO IDENTIFY THOSE AREAS THAT REQUIRE MORE SOPHISTICATED MODELING OR MORE EXPERIMENTAL DATA.
THE CODE PERFORMANCE AND DATA WERE ANALYZED USING STATISTICAL METHODS. THUS, ALL OF THE MAJOR RESPONSE VARIABLES ARE PRESENTED
ALONG WITH THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARD ERROR BOUNDS. THE VERIFICATION PROCEDURE USED INFORMATION FROM OVER 700 FUEL RODS
CONTAINING A WIDE RANGE OF OPERATING AND DESIGN PARAMETERS.

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STEADY-STATE FUEL PERFORMANCE CODES ARE REVIEWED BY NRR AS PART OF LOCA AND OTHER ACCIDENT ANALYSIS. NRR USES AN INDEPENDENT NRC-DEVELOPED CODE FOR AUDIT PURPOSES IN THESE REVIEWS.

*** NRR: IMPACT OF RESULTS ***

NO DIRECT IMPACT. NRR USES THE GAPCON SERIES OF CODES IN AUDIT WORK AS IT HAS DONE SINCE BEFORE FRAP-S WAS DEVELOPED. NRR HAS NO PLANS TO USE FRAP-S IN THIS CAPACITY.

*** NRR COMMENTS AND REMARKS ***

THE FRAP-S CODE WAS DEVELOPED BY RES TO INITIALIZE VARIOUS ANALYSIS CODES. RES AND NRR HAVE RECOGNIZED THE DUPLICATE GAPCON AND FRAP-S CODE EFFORTS AND HAVE CONSOLIDATED THESE EFFORTS INTO A HYBRID CODE FRAPCON. FRAPCON WILL CONTAIN SOME ELEMENTS FROM FRAP-53, BUT FRAP-S DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

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THE ENGINEERING METHODOLOGY STANDARDS BRANCH PLANS TO USE THE RESEARCH RESULTS IN ITS ONGOING DEGRADED CORE COOLING TASK AND IN ESTIMATING THE FISSION PRODUCT SOURCE TERM FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVELOPE STANDARDS ACTIVITY. RESULTS MAY ALSO BE USED IN THE ECCS RULE CHANGE EFFORT AND, IN THE LONG TERM, IN REGULATORY GUIDES RELATED TO CORE DESIGN.

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