These assignment patterns were observed when there were shortages of new teachers in mathematics, physical sciences, English, foreign languages, industrial arts, and agriculture. These shortages may have required the combination assignment of these subjects to a larger proportion of teachers than would be observed at a time when supply and demand are in better balance.

Trends in Relative Demand Among High-School Subjects Based on the Trend Criterion

Information from a sampling survey of teachers conducted by the NEA Research Division in 1965-66 provides an estimate, with sampling variability, of the proportions of secondary-school teachers having their major assignment in each subject area. The annual summaries of reports from a varying number of states showing the number of new high-school teachers being employed in each major subject area provide an annual estimate of the proportion of new highschool teachers assigned to each subject area. The estimates based on these state reports reflect the trend criterion since they include the number of positions actually filled by new teachers rather than the number needing to be filled in order to attain the minimum standards of quality in staffing characteristics.

A summary of the estimated distribution of all secondary-school teachers by subject area in 1964-65 and of all new high-school teachers in the reporting states in selected years is given in Table 19. Precise comparisons of the percent distributions are not feasible owing to differences in the numbers of states reporting and the difference in the practice of counting librarians as classroom teachers. However, the general pattern of the distribution among high-school subjects for all teachers in 1964-65 and among the new teachers that session suggests that the relative demand for new teachers is almost in the same proportion as the total number of teachers assigned among the several subject areas. The percents of new teachers assigned to a subject area are within the range of ±2 standard errors of the estimated percent of all high-school teachers in the same subject obtained from the sample survey. The percent of new teachers in 1964-65 exceeds one standard error from the estimated percent of all teachers that year only in the foreign languages, music, and social studies.

Small changes in the relative demand for new teachers in high schools are suggested by information from the reporting states since 1948-49. The proportion of new high-school teachers has been decreasing somewhat in agriculture, home economics, industrial arts, and music. Slight increases in the proportion of new high-school teachers are noted in English, foreign languages, mathematics, and subjects not listed in the survey form.

III. SUPPLY COMPARED WITH DEMAND FOR NEW TEACHERS

Estimates of the supply of teacher education graduates prepared to enter teaching positions in 1966 and estimates of the number of teaching positions to be filled by these graduates have been presented separately in Sections I and II of this report. A comparison of the numbers of positions included in these estimates provides a general indication of the adequacy of the present supply of beginning teachers and identifies the fields of specialization in which the estimated number of beginning teachers in supply and demand are out of balance. Also provided in this section are estimates of the status of the current supply of beginning teachers as compared with conditions in earlier years.

SUPPLY OF GRADUATES COMPARED WITH DEMAND (TCE)

The number of new teachers employed and the number of graduates of teacher preparation programs in the reporting states provide an estimate of the status of the supply compared with demand based on the Trend Criterion.

Information about the number of new teachers in 1965 and their assignments reported by 29 states was summarized in Table 15 in the preceding section. The total number of new teachers and the number of persons completing teacher education programs in these same 29 states in 1965 are listed in Table 20 in the same subject grouping. Caution should be used in analyzing the data contained in Table 20 since the number of prospective teachers being educated in a given state may not represent the actual supply of beginning teachers for the state because of nonresident graduates and migration of resident graduates. Also limiting the accuracy of comparisons based on these figures is the possibility that experienced former teachers may be in great supply, or demand, in some subjects than in others. This would modify the estimated relative demand for beginning teachers to fill the positions listed as being filled by new teachers.

TABLE 20.—Comparison of the total number of teacher education graduates with the number of new teachers employed in 29 States, 1965-66

TABLE 21.-Teacher education graduates as percent of new teachers employed in selected States, 4-year intervals since 1948-49

The information in Table 20 shows that the areas in which the supply of beginning teachers is least adequate include elementary-school teaching, highschool subjects other than those surveyed, high-school mathmematics, highschool sciences, library science, and high-school English. If the entire class of teacher education graduates in these states entered teaching, the supply of beginning teachers in these subjects would not exceed the demand for new teachers by as many as 15 percent. Differences in the method for reporting persons being trained in the natural and physical sciences field without specific subject endorsements and in the reporting of persons assigned specific subjects within this field make the summary of supply-demand relationships in the specific subjects comprising the sciences very questionable.

Subjects in which the supply of teacher education graduates in these states is more than twice as great as the number of positions being filled by new teachers include physical education (men) and high-school speech.

TRENDS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND (TCE) IN REPORTING STATES

Information in Table 21 provides an estimate of trends in supply and demand conditions as observed in the reporting states since 1948-49 in four-year intervals. The table shows that the supply of qualified beginning elementary-school teachers has been rising toward, but has not reached, the level of demand (Trend Criterion). Mathematics, which comprises 8 to 10 percent of the new highschool teachers, also has consistently been in relatively low supply in these selected years. General science and physics, together involving about 8 percent of new teachers, have been in relatively short supply (the proportion in physics has wide variation owing to the small number of persons involved). The margin of supply of chemistry teachers has been decreasing. English, involving 18 to 20 percent of the new high-school teachers seems to be in better relative supply now than in earlier years, but the margin of supply is not as wide as in some other high-school subjects. Library science, involving 1 to 2 percent of the new high-school teachers, has been in relatively short supply continuously through these years studied. Industrial arts, involving between 3 and 5 percent of the new high-school teachers, has been in relatively lower supply than has been observed in earlier years.

FIGURE IV

Teacher education graduates as percent of all teachers, annually since 1955-56,

by level

SUPPLY OF BEGINNING TEACHERS COMPARED WITH TOTAL NUMBER
OF TEACHERS EMPLOYED

An estimate of the present status of teacher supply and demand may be provided by a comparison over several years between the number of prospective teachers being graduated and the total number of teachers employed. Allowance should be given to changes in the influence of annual growth of the teaching staff and differences in the proportion of teachers leaving the profession. Normally the proportion of the total number of teachers represented by the number of graduates completing teacher education would not be expected to vary widely if the new supply is keeping pace with a steady enlargement of the demand for beginning teachers.

Shown in Table 22 are the percents of the total number of teachers represented by the number of teacher education graduates ready for entry each year since 1955-56. During these years of marked growth in the size of the total staff, the number of prospective teachers has represented a gradually increasing proportion of the total staff size. A slight moderation in this proportion occurred at the high-school level in 1961-62, a year having a marked increase in the growth of the secondary-school staff.

SUPPLY OF NEW TEACHERS COMPARED WITH DEMAND (QCE)

Two estimates of the supply of new teachers compared with the estimated demand for new teachers based on the Quality Criterion are shown on page 47: TABLE 22.-Estimates of the total number of teachers and the number of teacher education graduates ready for employment each year since 1955–56

1NEA Research Division preliminary estimate plus 50,000 new teachers estimated to be added as an effect of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 (adjusted trend criterion estimate).

Source of staff size: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education, "Projections of Educational Statistics to 1974-75." Circular No. 790. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1965. Table 21 corrected for 1965 data (fall staff size including number of part-time teachers).

FIGURE V