The percents of full-time teachers in 1964-65 represented by the number of beginning teachers needed in 1965-66 to replace separating teachers are within the range of 3.5 to 6.8 percent in elementary and 3.0 to 7.2 percent at the highschool level. The projected numbers of beginning teachers needed in 1966-67 based on these percents of the 1965-66 staff size and the projected staff enlarge ment are summarized in Table 14.

The numbers of beginning teachers at the midpoints of these estimates are greater than the earlier estimates given in Table 12 by only 1,438 elementary. school teachers (2.1 percent) and by only 741 high-school teachers (1.2 percent). The demand for beginning elementary-school teachers in this estimate represents 53.2 percent of the total demand for beginning teachers. The overlapping range of the estimates and the difference of 8,000 beginning teachers between the two levels suggest that the demand for beginning teachers is not widely different between the two levels.

TABLE 14.-An alternate estimate of the number of beginning teachers to be em ployed in public schools in session 1966-67, based on the trend criterion

The trends in demand for qualified public-school teachers for a given school year may be changed as a result of changes in various factors such as the following:

Major modification in the school program and assignment load of teachers
Enrollment growth related to enlarged educational programs

Reduction in the ratio of pupils per teacher to provide special programs being encouraged through federal and state legislation

Change in the rate by which persons having substandard certification are being replaced

Elimination of large classes.

Some of these conditions have been influencing the demand for new teachers during the past several years. The trends in staffing practices observed in the past are included in the data used to derive the estimates of teacher demand based on the Trend Criterion. For example, information in Section IV of this report shows marked improvement in the educational qualifications of elementary-school teachers during the past 10 years.

Owing to the lack of precise data, it is difficult to estimate the specific effects of new conditions influencing some of the components of teacher demand. For example, present data do not allow identification of the number of teachers being counted in regular staff turnover or attrition who have substandard certification and are encouraged to resign largely because of this condition.

Total Demand for New and Beginning Teachers, Based on the ADJUSTED TREND CRITERION ESTIMATE-A minimum estimate of change to be expected in the recent trends in the staffing of public schools is provided by the U.S. Office of Education. Projections of Educational Statistics to 1974–75, 1965 edition, shows an estimate of 34,000 additional new teachers needed for 1965-66 and 50,000 additional new teachers needed for 1966-67 as a result of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965. This estimate projects that the number of full-time and part-time teachers in public schools will rise in the fall

of 1966 to 1,014,000 elementary-school teachers and 779,000 secondary-school teachers. The increase of 46,000 elementary-school teachers and 30,000 secondary-school teachers represents 4.8 percent and 4.0 percent enlargement over the number employed in the fall of 1965. Since the full effect of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 was not reflected in the staff size reported in the fall of 1965, the Trend Criterion Estimate does not account for this new factor influencing the demand for teachers.

Use of an estimate that 50,000 additional new teachers will be employed in 1966-67 and application of the U.S. Office of Education estimate that 60 percent of these added teachers will be placed in elementary schools provides an estimate that 30,000 new elementary-school teachers and 20,000 new secondaryschool teachers will be required in the fall of 1966. These are added to the Trend Criterion Estimate to establish the Adjusted Trend Criterion Estimate of demand for new teachers. The total staff estimated by this process comprises 1,019,344 elementary-school teachers and 793,359 high-school teachers. The Adjusted Trend Criterion Estimate of the total demand for teachers exceeds the U.S. Office of Education estimates by 0.5 percent at the elementary-school level and by 1.8 percent at the secondary-school level. The total demand for new and beginning teachers based on the Adjusted Trend Criterion Estimate is shown below:

Other Factors Influencing the Demand for New Teachers

The U.S. Office of Education has estimated that 14,040 new teachers will be needed in the nonpublic schools in the fall of 1966. It has been estimated that 1,800 new teachers will be needed in the dependent schools overseas. Replacement may be required for an estimated 300 experienced teachers and 1,200 beginning teachers if the Teacher Corps is fully implemented. The normal flow of experienced teachers to advanced training may be increased by the estimated 900 fellowships for experienced teachers at teacher-training institutions as provided by the Higher Education Act of 1965.

Additional vacancies are certain as experienced teachers accept specialized positions being established through the impact of federal support to programs related to public education or which require persons having the characteristics of effective teachers. For example, the number of guidance counselors has almost trebled to 35,000 persons during the seven years following passage of the National Defense Education Act. The provision of funds to employ remedial instruction specialists, school social workers, research analysts, program coordinators, state department of education staff members, and other positions outside the classroom will attract an unknown number of teachers. The effect of these programs upon the typical components of Teacher Supply and Demand has not been documented.

The tide of increased enrollments is being felt at the 2-year and 4-year college level and the number of public-school teachers moving to these levels may increase markedly, thereby opening many positions for new teachers in the elementary and secondary schools. It has been estimated that in the junior colleges alone, 100,000 more teachers will be needed within the next 10 years. Probably the general shortage in other occupations which attract young people having at least the bachelor's degree and the increased demands of the military services are contributing also to an increase in the exodus of qualified teachers and the loss of potential teachers.

It is difficult to estimate the extent these conditions are changing the entry rate of potential teachers and the turnover rate of experienced teachers. It seems obvious, however, that the demand for teachers projected by each of the three sets of criteria should be considered as minimum estimates.

75-492-67-pt. 2- 42

Summary of the Estimates of Demand for New Teachers

Listed below are the total numbers of new teachers who will be needed in the fall of 1966 as determined by the three criteria. An estimate of the demand for beginning teachers may be obtained by subtracting the 28,756 elementary- and 22,231 secondary-school teachers expected to re-enter the profession (3 percent of the number of full-time teachers employed in the fall of 1965).

CHARACTERISTICS OF DEMAND FOR NEW TEACHERS AS SUGGESTED BY
ASSIGNMENTS IN SELECTED STATES

During the past 18 surveys of teacher supply and demand varying numbers of states have reported the number of new teachers employed and their assignments. (These include experienced teachers returning to the classroom as well as the beginning teachers.) A summary of the reports for 1965-66 from 29 states is provided in Table 15. The individual state summaries are given in the Appendix, Table B.

A review of the characteristics of the teaching assignments of these new teachers provides an estimate of the comparative demand between elementary- and high-school levels and among the high-school subject areas. Also, the data identify the types of competence needed by new teachers as suggested by the combinations of subjects being assigned to new teachers in the high schools.

Each new teacher is entered in this table only once with the entry showing the major and minor, if any, assignment. For example, the entry on line 1 and column 2 shows that 371 new teachers have been given their complete assignment in the teaching of high-school agriculture. The line shows that 9 new teachers had a major assignment in agriculture accompanied by a minor assignment in art, etc., and that 459 new teachers had either a major or complete assignment in agriculture. Column 2 shows that 1 new teacher has been assigned a combination in which art is the major assignment with agriculture being the minor assignment, etc.

Relative Demand for New Elementary- and High-School Teachers

Shown in lines 21 and 22 in column 22 of Table 15 are the total numbers of new teachers employed in 1965-66 who were given their complete or major assignment in either elementary or high-school levels. The total demand for new elementary-school teachers was 835 greater than the total demand for new highschool teachers in these 29 states. The new elementary-school teachers represented 50.5 percent of all new teachers.

TABLE 15.-Assignments of new teachers employed in 29 States, 1965-66-Continued

19

18

19

66

158
41

61

373

2,456

2,880

39, 560

40, 395