C. SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY IMPACT Population Growth As a In recent years, the U. S. has experienced declining birth rates and an attendant slowing in overall growth. result the subject of population growth has begun to surface as an important component of immigration policy considerations. Since we do not know the extent of illegal immigration today, we cannot define the proportion of population growth it creates. However, it is instructive to assess the role legal immigration plays in population growth as an avenue toward revealing the relationship between population growth and illegal immigration. Immigration has, since the 1965 amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act, assumed increased importance as a major contributor to U.S. population growth. It is less than we experienced during the peak years prior to World War I but more than that of the post-World War II years. The 1972 report of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future shows that the relative importance of immigration as a component of population growth has and will increase significantly as a decline in birthrates lowers the natural increase. Between 1960 and 1970 about 16 percent of total population was due to net immigration. If net immigration is maintained at the current rate (approximately 400,000 per year) and all families have an average of two children, immigration between now and 2000, plus descendants, will number 15 million, nearly one-fourth of the total projected population increase for that period. In July 1976, the Subcommittee of Population Education, Federal Interagency Committee on Education published a report entitled Population Education and the Federal Role. The report notes the impact of international migration on U.S. society. If both fertility and illegal immigration continue at current levels, all growth in the U.S. will derive from immigration by the year 2035. Today legal immigrants account for about 30% of the U.S. population growth and because of the present low fertility the relative contributions of immigration to population growth is increasing yearly. Not only the growth but the distribution of population is affected. Immigrants prefer metropolitan areas and concentrate in a few states. Assuming current tendencies prevail, two-thirds will settle in six states New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas and Massachusetts. Immigration as defined and experienced by the United States pursuant to the law is a central factor in growth. To the extent that some workings of the current law contribute to illegal immigration, and to the extent that we have been relatively unable to control the sheer size of such a migration, immigration becomes all the more important as a determinant in projecting future population growth. Levels of illegal immigration are not accurately known, but most recent estimates run to several million yearly. Since FY 1974, INS apprehension statistics for illegal aliens have hovered around three-quarters of a million annually. year, the United States population increase of 1.2 million persons in 1975 is in effect doubled as a result of illegal immigration. The following table of U.S. Population Pro-, jections gives us some indication of the effects of legal and illegal immigration given the historically low, current fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman and given the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Although this information is insufficient to judge the extent of the impact that immigration, both legal and illegal, will have on the U.S., it is sufficient to indicate that serious consideration must be given to the question of the proper level of immigration in the context of dwindling resources and desired growth. At an estimate of 1 million persons per The first column of data assumes a continuation of the current fertility immigration rate of 400,000, and an illegal immigration rate of 800,000.* *Assumptions 1Population size equals the total U.S. population including armed forces overseas as of July 15, 1975 (by age and sex). 2Age and sex structure of all immigrants (both legal and illegal) is the same. (Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601, p. 134.) 3The survival ratios are different for males and females but are similar for all races and for natives and immigrants. (Source: (Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601, p. 130.) 4That average age-specific fertility rates for women age 15-49 are used. Fertility rates apply to all women by single year of age, regardless of race or nationality. 5The timing of births (proportionate distribution of births to women) is similar to the actual childbearing pattern of 1973. The timing of childbearing is assumed to be the same for all races and for natives and immigrations. (Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601, p. 125.) INS Enforcement Immigration policy in general and its effects on certain groups within the society in particular have always been the source of varying degrees of controversy and bitterness. Today the most vigorous opposition to enforcement policy comes from the ethnic groups and communities that find significant numbers of illegal aliens in their midst. Their attitudes, rooted in negative experiences and a history of racial-type conflicts, have the potential for causing serious conflict at the local level in the future. Two distinct types of community organizations are openly critical of INS enforcement policy. One of these can be classified as ethnic civil rights organizations, the other as groups which defend the rights of aliens in general. 1. Ethnic Community Organizations These groups are composed of American citizens who are members of an identifiable ethnic group and consider themselves singled out for enforcement emphasis because of their cultural origins. They resent having to prove that they are U.S. citizens when other Americans are not required to do so. Because the majority of the enforcement effort is now directed at Mexican illegal aliens, it is principally Hispanic groups that have raised charges of civil rights violations. Any enforcement activity which has the appearance of being targeted towards Hispanic or any other ethnic community will continue to inspire strong criticism. |