basis can be obtained in commercial plantings. We told the Baruch committee and everybody else that this is speculative. We might only get half of what we estimated, or only two-thirds, and they have apparently formed their own conclusion that our estimates are probably too liberal.

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION OF RUBBER UNDER PRESENT AND ENLARGED PROGRAM

The CHAIRMAN. What is your program now, with this 500,000 acres? What do you expect in the way of production in the immediate future, the next 2 or 3 years?

Mr. GRANGER. Beginning in the fall of 1944, with this expanded program, instead of getting 13,000 tons we should get 33,000 tons. The CHAIRMAN. To what extent can we rely on that?

Mr. GRANGER. I could not say you can rely on it; that is our reasonable expectation, based on the data we have. It would not surprise me if it fell off one-third, and it would not shock me if it fell off one-half. There are many uncertainties in this. It is being presented as the best known possibility in the domestic rubber field. Mr. TABER. Did I understand you to say that this amount of 33,000 tons in the fall of 1944 would only come with the additional acreage, on the basis of 500,000 acres.

Mr. GRANGER. It would come only with the expanded program. I think I might explain about the 500,000 acres. There are a good many figures in this presentation and it may be confusing. We had to adopt some basis for the outline of the project to the Baruch committee, so we proceeded on the basis that we would plant all the seed now available and stop right there, if that were determined to be the best thing.

The CHAIRMAN. Do you expect to get the 33,000 tons with the $19,000,000, or will it require additional funds?

Mr. GRANGER. It will require more money after this fiscal year. The CHAIRMAN. How much?

Mr. GRANGER. It will take about $100,000,000 more to plant all of the stock which will result from this seed and to put up the necessary factories and get the rubber out of the shrubs.

The CHAIRMAN. How much acreage will you plant with the $19,000,000?

Mr. GRANGER. We hope to plant 88,000 acres in the fiscal year

1943.

The CHAIRMAN. How many acres have you secured with the money already appropriated?

Mr. GRANGER. We have not yet got into the big planting program; we plan to plant 32,000 acres.

The CHAIRMAN. That will make a total acreage of how much?

Mr. GRANGER. We will plant 56,000 more in this fiscal year, which will bring us up to a total in the fiscal year 1943 of 88,000 acres.

EXPERIMENTAL WORK WITH RUSSIAN DANDELION, RABBIT-BRUSH AND GOLDENROD

The CHAIRMAN. You have been carrying on experimental work with a Russian dandelion. What is that called?

Mr. GRANGER. That is the Kok-sagyz.

The CHAIRMAN. What results are you getting on rubber production from goldenrod and rabbitbrush?

Mr. GRANGER. As to rabbitbrush, the Bureau of Agricultural Chemistry and Engineering has been studying the possibility of getting rubber out of rabbitbrush, and I understand that they have gone far enough so that they are very doubtful whether rubber can be successfully produced on a commercial scale from rabbitbrush, except possibly from one strain that grows to an especially large size, and all indications so far are on the negative side.

The CHAIRMEN. What about goldenrod as a source of rubber? Mr. GRANGER. Goldenrod is quite promising, if we can develop a process for getting rubber out of it, for the production of a rather low grade of rubber. The Navy informs us that they can use vast quantities of a type of rubber for various purposes, which, apparently, would be the type of rubber that would be gotten out of goldenrod. The CHAIRMAN. Do you expect to continue with your work on goldenrod?

Mr. GRANGER. We expect to continue our work with goldenrod, and may come before the committee with a proposal to plant 15,000 acres in goldenrod.

The CHAIRMAN. How about the other rubber-producing plants? Mr. GRANGER. Cryptostegia is a rubber-producing plant that is under study by the Bureau of Agricultural Chemistry and Engineering with a view to developing an extractive process. That has not yet been developed. The Cryptostegia plant is under study in an intensive way, and there is a good deal of confidence that a suitable extractive process can be developed. It is believed, however, from the standpoint of growing the plant in the United States that there are very few localities in this country where it can be successfully grown. The climatic requirements are much more rigid for the Cryptostegia plant shan for the guayule plant. However, there are probably quite large areas in the western hemisphere, including Mexico, Puerto Rico, and elsewhere where the Cryptostegia can be successfully produced, and I believe the Board of Economic Warfare is interested in that program. The CHAIRMAN. If we are to get practical results, you think we must pin our faith to the guayule plant?

Mr. GRANGER. So far as the United States is concerned, very largely so; yes, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. In the development of natural-rubber production, what relation does your Department have to the synthetic rubber program?

Mr. GRANGER. In connection with the guayule program, some natural rubber appears to be absolutely essential to be mixed with synthetic rubber for use in the manufacture of the larger tires and from other purposes for which some proportion of natural rubber must be used. Therefore, it is regarded as indispensable to have some guaranteed source of natural rubber until such time as the experts are able to adapt synthetic rubber to all of those uses in this country. That is something that Germany and Russia have undertaken to do, but have not been able to do it up to this time. Whether we shall be able to adapt pure synthetic rubber to all those uses is not now predictable.

BENEFIT OF RUBBER PROJECT TO AGRICULTURE GENERALLY

The CHAIRMAN. If your estimates will permit you to proceed on the basis of 75,000 acres, or with the plantations as originally authorized, and if the basic law is not changed, what recommendation do you have with respect to acreage for this project?

Mr. GRANGER. When I was before the Senate committee, the question was raised as to whether the acreage limitation should be removed entirely, or whether there should be a new acreage figure. We agreed to the 500,000-acre figure as a ceiling under which we can operate comfortably for some time in the future. If it were decided that we should go into the project on a more or less permanent basis, for the production of approximately 80,000 tons of rubber a year, then we would want approximately 500,000 acres of land to be kept in use all the time for the purpose. We would be establishing plantations occupying about 185,000 acres of land in each of the 2 years, making a total of twice that acreage. Then, because of the fact that you cannot take the shrubs out of the first year's plantation and resow it at the same time, we must have additional acreage to allow for the overlapping.

The CHAIRMAN. I believe the basic law is not changed, but you are recommending the planting of more than 75,000 acres.

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir.

Mr. O'NEAL. Assuming that this experiment-and I think you still call it an experiment is successful, and you establish the fact that rubber from cultivated plants can be produced in this country in appreciable quantities, have you considered the possibilities, or have you taken a long-range view of the possibilities of the cultivation of these plants in relation to individual farmers, or have you considered these plants as something the individual farmers might grow? In other words, is there any possibility of this being of benefit to the whole agricultural situation in this country, from the point of view of a longrange program of production?

Mr. GRANGER. The areas where these plants are grown

Mr. O'NEAL (interposing). Do you feel there is a possibility that in the future this might be of help to agriculture in this country by providing another profitable crop for individual farmers?

Mr. GRANGER. I think it might provide quite a possibility of production for farmers in the areas where these plants are grown.

Mr. O'NEAL. Do you think that an operation of this kind is one that can be handled by individual farmers, with the Government directing it or furnishing the stock?

Mr. GRANGER. A considerable part of the program could very well be handled by the farmer. The raising of the stock in the nurseries might have to be a Government project, or a cooperative project on the part of groups of farmers. The supervision of the specialized methods of planting the stock in the field might have to be handled by the Government, as well as the machinery used for the extraction of the rubber.

Mr. O'NEAL. So that, in addition to the benefits that will flow from the project for war purposes, it might in the long run represent money well spent from the standpoint of agriculture generally, or from the standpoint of the individual farmer.

Mr. GRANGER. I think so.

the possibilities along that line.

At least it would seem to demonstrate

Mr. LUDLOW. Pursuing Mr. O'Neal's line of questions, with reference to the benefit that this project might be to agriculture generally, I have always understood that the production of these plants is restricted to certain areas, or that only certain areas or soils can produce these rubber plants.

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir; they are grown on a fairly limited range, principally in the southwestern part of the United States. However, there is quite a substantial area in the southwestern part of the United States where these shrubs will grow.

Mr. LUDLOW. I want to ask you something on that particular point. Approximately, how much area is adapted to the cultivation of this plant?

Mr. GRANGER. I do not think I can answer that in terms of acreage, but in practically all of the farming part of California south of Redding, or in approximately three-fourths of the State, the guayule plant can be grown. Then, in perhaps half of the agriculturally developed area of Arizona, in some of the Panhandle of Texas, and in a little of New Mexico the plant can be grown. I am not sure that it would be found feasible to grow it in all of that territory because we have found already indications of root rot and other things attacking the plant. In part of that territory it is still speculative, but there is a possibility of the plants being successfully grown.

PRESENT PRODUCTION OF GUAYULE RUBBER

Mr. LUDLOW. What has been the total production of guayule rubber up to this time?

Mr. GRANGER. I do not have the figures for the total production, but it averaged around 5,000 or 6,000 tons a year from the wild shrubs in Mexico in recent years, and is now about 9,000 tons. That production has been coming from wild shrubs.

Mr. LUDLOW. Is there any production from the cultivated guayule plants?

Mr. GRANGER. Only a few tons.

Mr. LUDLOW. When do you expect to have a substantial production from them?

Mr. GRANGER. We expect greatly increased production by late 1944.

Mr. LUDLOW. You are continuing your investigative work with a view to producing rubber of a higher quality, are you not?

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir. With the resin in it, as it comes from the factory, it is not a high-quality rubber. However, for some purposes, with the resin in it, it is quite suitable for mixing with synthetic rubber. After the resin is taken out, it is high-quality rubber.

Mr. LUDLOW. You were speaking about mixing natural rubber with synthetic rubber as being an essential thing to do.

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir.

Mr. LUDLOW. In about what proportions do you mix the natural rubber with the synthetic rubber?

Mr. GRANGER. When this program was launched, the experts said there should be 40 or 50 percent of natural rubber mixed with the

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synthetic rubber. Now I think they have found that for rubber they use for making a lot of things they require from 25 to 40 percent of natural rubber.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. What sort of lease do you take from the landowner?

Mr. GRANGER. We take an annual lease, subject to renewal, running for not more than 10 years.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. At the expiration of 10 years, you will be at the mercy of the landowner; will you not?

Mr. GRANGER. If necessary, we could exercise the power of eminent domain.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. Do you have anything in your contract by which you can buy the land for the Government, if you want to take it over?

Mr. GRANGER. No, sir. The act limits us to the leasing of plantation land. We have not taken any option to buy the lands because we have no authority to do that.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. Do these cultivated shrubs yield more rubber than the wild rubber shrubs?

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir. The average rubber content of the wild shrub is about 10 or 12 percent.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. How about the yield of the cultivated plants?

Mr. GRANGER. The cultivated shrubs yield a higher percentage. We have in the past been finding a 20-percent rubber content in the cultivated plants.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. How do you account for that?

Mr. GRANGER. We get a bigger shrub, in the first place, in a shorter space of time when they are under cultivation. It is due to a combination of many years' effort in selecting high-yielding strain, the use of water, better soil, and cultivation that you get a bigger shrub with a larger rubber content.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. The land you take out of cultivation for this purpose would be of help to the farmers. In other words, the more land you take out of cultivation for certain purposes will be helpful to farmers, and they can also use, where necessary, a lot of land that is not now being used.

Mr. GRANGER. It would help the farmer who is raising a crop which at the moment is surplus. If we can divert that land to some other crop, it will be helpful to the farmer.

Mr. JOHNSON of West Virginia. If he has a surplus crop, and you can convert the use of that land to this industry, or the land on which the surplus crop is grown, to that extent this would be helpful to the farmer.

Mr. GRANGER. Yes, sir; that is right.

Mr. RABAUT. What climatic conditions are required for the growth of this Russian plant, or Russian dandelion?

Mr. GRANGER. The Russian dandelion is a hardy plant, and will grow under severe climatic conditions. We are testing it in the northern part of the United States, clear across the northern section. Mr. RABAUT. Is it a large plant?

Mr. GRANGER. No, sir; it is about the size of our ordinary dandelion plant.