demand curves off at some point, while other developed and developing nations will in time follow this same course, circumstances permitting. There are two salient points, however, which the report does not stress. First, there are far from sufficient materials available for all countries to achieve

the level of per capita consumption achieved by the most advanced countries, particularly since population rates of increase in these less-developed countries continue to be uninhibited. Second, the hypothetical flattening-out of the demand curve will presumably occur in different countries at different times, perhaps accompanied by a flattening-out of population; if true, the hypothesis suggests a stabilizing of demand in country after country, with those furthest behind left with the least materials.

Given these admittedly hypothetical propositions, there could be some very hard bargaining ahead.. The system has to "give" somewhere, and it is at least a plausible inference that the largest per capita consuming countries will have to lower their standards as well as demanding that the least affluent countries (on a per capita basis) control their population growth more closely.

RAW MATERIALS FOR STEEL

The notable shift in the world's steel industry is explored quantitatively. U.S. imports of ore 1950-1970 rose sixfold, while after the end of the Korean War, scrap exports doubled. World reserves of iron, supplemented from new discoveries and developments, rose to a figure exceeding 250 billion metric tons. U.S. production of steel remained stable and the industry did not keep pace with foreign technological developments in the use of oxygen, large ore carriers, and "super-ports". Steel production in the

"rest of the world" rose at an annual rate of eight percent, from 100 mil

lion metric tons to 476 million.

The implications of these developments are not searched out in the report. For example, what lessons should be drawn from U.S. reluctance to exploit the new technology of oxygen steel-making? Is the United States

at or nearing a point of consumer saturation in steel? What is the significance for steel demand of the changing patterns of design in the auto industry? What about the relation of steel consumption to the uncertainties of availability of petroleum supply? Will emphasis on solid waste processing create new sources of scrap, and compel a shift in steel mill practice, or will it be found advantageous for larger quantities be exported? What stimulus to U.S. steel production resulted from foreign military assistance and A. I.D. programs, and what will be the future consequences of the "Nixon Doctrine"?

The only conclusions drawn in this section are that world iron reserves are ample, that costs of processed taconite to U.S. steel-makers versely, of long distance ore shipments

or, con

place the United States industry at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis foreign countries.

However, the general U.S. trend in employment away from agricultural, timber, and mineral extraction, and away from manufacturing, and in the direction of the service trades and industries, probably has its own profound effects on the future of the industry. A larger number of people today are dependent on the product of the steel industry, but fewer and fewer engage in it.

Fastest expanding nonferrous industry in the world, aluminum has shown a growth rate globally of nearly ten percent annually (from 1.9 million metric tons to 12.5 million) during the period 1950-1970. In the United States, refinery output of aluminum metal rose during those years from 0.8 million metric tons to 3.6, while domestic production of bauxite increased only slightly and reserves dwindled rapidly. Globally, there appears to be no shortage in prospect of bauxite [and there is a very large secondary reserve of clay and other alumina-containing materials that are not mentioned in the report].

The aluminum picture presented is one of a dynamic and rapidly expanding industry with no signs of saturation as with steel. However, there are two areas neglected or touched on only lightly in the report:

(1) The scrap picture, of which it was explained that "available data are sketchy and incomplete" and "do not allow an accurate analysis." [It is interesting that metallic aluminum scrap, like copper, is extremely durable and will continue to accumulate above-ground until it is eventually collected and recycled. The fact that aluminum recycling has not yet been institutionalized very far carries no implication that it won't be. Economic motivation in this direction appears to be growing.]

(2) Limitations of electric power shortages and the environmental costs of both electricity generation and aluminum refining, may impose barriers on further expansion of primary aluminum capacity in developed countries as well as further stimulating aluminum recycling.

Technologically, copper appears to be somewhat more stable than the other metals considered. It shows neither the stagnation of steel in the United States nor the remarkably rapid growth in "rest of the world," except in Japan (10-fold) and the U.S.S.R. (4-fold). In the United States, during the two decades 1950-1970, production of mine copper increased from 0.9 million metric tons to 1.5 million, while the world production more than doubled, from 2.5 million to six million. Reserves of copper, even in

the United States, appear to be adequate, and elsewhere even more so. The secondary copper industry is reported to be well organized, with some thing like 50 percent of U.S. requirements being met from this source.

Mention

is made of nationalization of resources in some countries, but no inferences are drawn from this circumstance.

ZINC

In terms of production and consumption, zinc appears to have expanded somewhat more than copper and less than aluminum, during the period 1950-1970 with a growth rate of 4.8 percent globally. (The rate for copper was 4.4, and that for aluminum nearly ten.) Japan and the Soviet Union have set the pace in this expansion. World production went during these years from 2.1 million metric tons to 5.5 million, and consumption was roughly parallel. The scrap recovery picture for zinc is similar to that for aluminum: well reported or organized. With zinc in the United States, a principal problem is the reduction of refinery capacity (for combined economic/ environmental causes) by half, since 1969, with more refinery closings in

prospect.

not

U.S.

It is not clear why this material was included in the list. It is a major nonmetallic mineral, used in the steel, aluminum, and fluorocarbon plastics industries. Supply was reported as presenting problems, although these were not precisely characterized, nor were reserves quantified. consumption increased from 0.4 million metric tons in 1950 to 1.2 million in 1970, while the rest of the world increased its consumption from 0.5 million metric tons to 3.1 million. Consumption is associated with the large steel and aluminum producing nations, like the United States, Japan, U.S.S.R., and Germany, while production and reserves are mainly located in Mexico, Thailand, Spain, and Italy. Fluorine materials in industry are creating serious problems of waste management and environmental pollution, but the report suggests that emphasis on recycling (for both conservation and environmental quality purposes) will be beneficial.

FUELS (COAL, NATURAL GAS, PETROLEUM)

The report's historical approach and descriptions of the present stance in petroleum and natural gas, do not do justice to the problem ahead. With respect to the very large coal reserves in the United States, their span of usefulness would presumably be reduced if the nation should be required to turn to them for substitute materials in place of the liquid and gaseous fossil fuels. [In addition, exports of coal might be necessary as a bargaining position vis-a-vis nations supplying the United States with essential materials that are short in this country.] For example, Japan's coking coal for steel making is supplied mostly from the United States.

The three largest producers and consumers of coal are the United States, U.S.S.R., and People's Republic of China. Despite reductions in coal use