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to non renewable resources, only in a static society; they argue that

science, "by making the resource base more homogeneous, erases the

restrictions once thought to reside in the lack of homogeneity". They

suggest that conservation of a resource, because it reduces research,

education and investment directed toward more complete utilization,

may diminish the total social vaiue of that resource.


University of Texas, 1968. Limitations of the earth: a compelling

focus for geoloay. Proceedings of a symposium held November 16-17, 1967, at the University of Texas at Austin. in Texas Quarterly, v.11, n.2, summer 1968, np.5-154; reprinted by Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, Austin.

In this small volume are packed many important statements about resource availability. There are eleven authors, representing a

considerable range of background and viewpoint. Of particular interest

are papers by Alvin Weinberg, Preston Cloud, Thomas Lovering, and William Pecora. Weinberg, who titled his presentation, "Raw Materials Unlimited", argued that the abundant, cheap energy which is just around the corner of breeder-reactor development, will indeed make

raw materials essentially unlimited, because we'll be able to mine

seawater and common rock.

Pecora exhorted his audience to have faith

in science and technology to solve resource problems.

Cloud and

Lovering presented the opposing view, the former pointing out that

mineral resources "share certain peculiarities that transcend economics

and limit technology" and the latter that unit costs of copper,

contrary to the cornucopian school of thought, have been rising for

35 years. Both Cloud and Lovering gave persuasive reasons for their

conviction that, even with chean energy, common rock would never be




National Petroleum Council, 1971, U.S. energy outlook, an initial

appraisal, 1971-1985. Washington: National Petroleum Council.

This book, produced by the major vested-interest group in the

field of natural resources, contains a great deal of useful and

accurate information.

Its projections of U.S. demand for energy are

questionable as are its projections of potential domestic petroleum

availability; both appear to reflect a measure of interest bias. On

the other hand, the projection methods used are stated clearly, facts

are not difficult to separate from assumptions, and the conclusions

about domestic netroleum potential are considerably more conservative

than those published recently by the petroleum geologists (Future

netroleum provinces of the United States

their geology and potential,

American Association Petroleum Geologists Memoir 15, 1971) and by the

U.S. Department of the Interior (United States energy, a summary

review, 1972).


Japanese Ministry of Trade and Industry, 1971, White paper on "Prospect of

Natural Resources Problems in Japan", Trade and Industry of Japan,
No. 167, pp.34-60.

An interesting account of political-economic alternatives designed

to cone with a condition of permanent domestic resource scarcity.

Some of the approaches being used or considered by Japan to insure a

steady inflow of foreign raw materials merit study in the context of

U.S. needs.


National Research Council, 1972. Elements of a national materials

policy. A report of the National Materials Advisory Board,
NMAB Publ. 294. Washington: National Academy Sciences National
Academy Engineering.

This report discusses U.S. materials policy in regard to mineral

commodities, states that the basic problem is how to sustain a


continuing flow of needed raw materials into the U.S. economy without

meeting unacceptable environmental, social, political, or fiscal

costs, and puts strong emphasis on the need to re-examine continuing material growth as an element in national policy and strategies.

7. Hewett, D.F., 1929. Cycles in metal production. American Institute

Mining, Met. Engr. Tech. Publ. 183, 37 p. and Trans. 1929,

A pioneer analysis of the production histories of the major

metals, in which it is concluded that there exists a characteristic

cycle of depletion for the mineral resources of a nation, with stages

marked by successive culminations in tonnage exported, number of

mines, number of smelters, tons of ore mined, and amount imported.

Many graphs present the record of the production of separate metals

from some 28 mining districts of Europe and support Hewett's

observation that mining districts pass through stages analogous to those of infancy, adolescence, maturity and old age.

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References cited

American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1971, Future petroleum

provinces of North America. A.A.P.G. Memoir 15.

Barnett, Harold J., 1971, "The myth of our vanishing resources", p. 180-186

in The survival equation. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Elliott, M.A., and Linden, H.R., 1968, "A new analysis of U.S. natural

gas supplies". Journal Petr. Techn., v.20, p. 135-141. Hendricks, T.A., 1965, Resources of oil, gas, and natural-gas liquids in

the United States and the world. U.S. Geol. Survey Circ. 522. Hubbert, M.K., 1969, "Energy resources", p. 157-242 in Resources and man.

San Francisco: Freeman.

Hubbert, M.K., 1971, "Energy resources for power production", p. 13-43 in

Environmental aspects of nuclear power stations. Vienna: Intl.
Atomic Energy Agency.

Kaysen, Carl, 1972, "The computer that printed out W*0*L*F*". Foreign

Affairs, v.50, p. 660-668.
McKelvey, V.E., 1971, "Mineral resource estimates and public policy".

American Scientist, v.60, D. 32-40.

McKelvey, V.E., and Duncan, D.C., 1965, "United States and world resources

of energy", p. 1-17 in Symposium on fuel and energy resources.
American Chemical Society.

Merrill, C.W., 1959, "The significance of the mineral industries in the

economy", n. 1-42 in Economics of the mineral industries. New York: Amer. Inst. Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc.

National Petroleum Council, 1971, U.S. energy outlook. Washington.

Shell Oil Companies, 1973, The national energy outlook.

U.S. Denartment of the Interior, 1972, United States energy, a summary


U.S. Geological Survey, 1966, Unpublished memorandum by T. A. Hendricks

and S. P. Schweinfurth quoted in United States petroleum through
1980. Washington: U.S. Dept. Interior.

Bull. Amer.

Weeks, L.G., 1965, "World offshore petroleum resources".

Assn. Petr. Geologists, v.49, p. 1680-1693.


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