generating large quantities of energy at much lower cost. A market is now available for still larger quantities of such low-cost energy.

FUEL SUPPLY FOR GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY

Oil and natural gas are the principal fuels utilized in fuel-burning electric generating plants in the area. The war has caused a heavy drain on these natural resources. Above ground reserve supplies of oil in California have been greatly depleted even with an increased production of crude oil. Many steam-electric plants normally using oil for fuel have been converted to utilize natural gas. It is evident, however, that the known sources of both oil and natural gas in the region will not continue indefinitely to supply these fuels at the present rate of consumption. Unless extensive new reserves of these fuels are discovered, it is certain that their use for generation of electricity will be sharply curtailed in a very few years. An increase in the cost of producing electricity in fuel-burning plants in the near future is anticipated. If coal were to replace present fuels, it would have to be transported for long distances, probably from mines in Utah, as there are no known extensive coal deposits in the area.

A number of fuel-burning plants may be retired in the future because of their obsolescence and the high cost of fuel. It is anticipated that the larger and more efficient plants will continue to be used for peaking and stand-by purposes. Minimum generating capacity which should be held in reserve to meet probable emergency requirements of the present power systems in the power area is considered to be about 300,000 kilowatts. A substantial amount of capacity in fuel-burning plants is required for such stand-by when hydroelectric energy must be transmitted long distances over transmission lines, as is the case in this power area. Energy generation by fuel-burning plants, however, will be reduced appreciably as the supply of low-cost hydroelectric energy increases.

POWER UTILIZATION

Electrical energy requirements (sales plus losses and utility use) in the power area of the lower basin during the year 1943 were a little more than 11 billion kilowatt-hours with a corresponding peak-load demand of about 2,100,000 kilowatts. Approximately 95 percent of the area's 1943 energy requirements was generated within the area, while about 5 percent was imported. Annual energy requirements had increased over 4.5 billion kilowatt-hours from 1940 to 1943. Much of this increase resulted from the great expansion of war industries. Increasing amounts of power and energy were also required in agriculture for farm use and irrigation pumping, in mining, and in many other service and trade industries.

SELLING PRICE OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY

Domestic requirements comprise a large portion of the electrical load and were rapidly increasing even prior to the war period. About 27 percent of the total energy sold in 1939 was delivered to residential customers, both urban and rural, at an average cost to the consumer of 2.8 cents per kilowatt-hour. Corresponding combined sales to commercial and industrial establishments amounts to 44.7 percent of the total energy sold at an average cost of 1.6 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Rates for sale of power and energy vary considerably in this power area. Throughout most of the area with exception of the cities on the west coast, rates have been high. In general, communities receive power from Boulder Dam and Parker Dam plants at a comparatively low cost and isolated communities still pay very high prices for power from smaller local plants.

Power Market Survey and Load Trend

Demand for electric power in the area has increased at a rapid rate during the past decade. Even prior to the stimulating influence of war conditions a remarkable growth was being experienced. Indications are that the potential power market in the area will continue to grow for many years in the future. With the cessation of hostilities, however, it is to be expected that there will be some temporary dropping off or leveling of power loads.

Opportunities exist for greatly expanding agriculture, mining, manufacturing, recreational areas, and health

centers. The expansion of these industries will increase the demand for more low-cost power.

Since 1900 population has grown much more rapidly in the metropolitan areas on the west coast than in other parts of the power area. Some sections are very sparsely settled. Only 4,650,000 persons were living in the lower basin power area in 1943. It has ample room and resources to support a population considerably in excess of this number and by 1980 it is estimated the population will have increased to at least 8,500,000.

FUTURE POWER CONSUMPTION

Residential use. Domestic utilization of electricity in the past has been limited somewhat because of the high cost to the consumer and because of the lack of widespread knowledge and acceptance of the many services and conveniences which electricity can provide in the home. An increasing demand for more power for domestic use is expected in future. The climate throughout most of the power area is especially suited to electric heating and air conditioning because excessive consumption of electricity for these purposes is not required. Also, there is a lack of natural fuels, such as coal, oil, gas, and wood in the greater part of this area. Refrigeration for food preservation has become a necessity in the modern home. Introduction of new type equipment, such as "deep freeze" units, and the expansion of the use of present domestictype refrigerators, stoves, heaters, and washing machines would increase greatly the use of electricity in homes. Total energy requirements for heating, air conditioning, and for other conveniences for an "all-electric" home would be about 14,000 kilowatt-hours annually. If favorable rates for sale of power and energy are made available to practically all communities in the power area it is estimated that an average yearly domestic consumption of 4,000 kilowatt-hours per home would be reached by 1980.

Farm use. The agricultural industry in the area is largely dependent on irrigation. Dry farming is of little consequence. Any plan for development of the potential irrigation projects would necessitate the use of a substantial amount of power and energy for irrigation and drainage pumping. It is also anticipated that farms will use additional amounts of electricity under extensive programs of rural electrification, possibly reaching an average annual consumption of 4,000 kilowatt-hours per farm, or 8,000 kilowatt-hours including the farm residence.

Commercial use. The use of electricity by commercial establishments is comparatively high. The long, hot summers make the use of air conditioning equipment highly desirable in many parts of the area, especially in hotels, office buildings, restaurants, and in places of public gatherings.

Electricity is used for cooking in many places and is

becoming more and more popular every year as better appliances and lower rates are made available. With the possibility that lower cost energy and better appliances and lighting equipment will continue to be made available throughout the area a steady and substantial increase in the commercial load is foreseen.

Mining use. The mining industry has been greatly stimulated by the war emergency. Large, important underground supplies of minerals, however, remain undeveloped in the area. The availability of large amounts of low-cost power would help to reduce mining costs and would encourage greater use of electricity in the industry. Substantial quantities of such cheap power would also be used to replace present generation of many fuel-burning plants which are owned and operated by mining companies. It is anticipated that the future consumption of electric energy in the mining industry within the power area will average about 1 billion kilowatt-hours annually. Manufacturing use.-More manufacturing industries in the area are needed. Some industries have sprung up and expanded greatly under the war impetus but in some instances industrial expansion has been limited by the lack of available low-cost electric power. The construction of the potential hydroelectric developments would provide for broad industrial expansion. Low-cost electric power and energy would encourage the processing of agricultural products and special metals as well as the production of many finished goods that previously have been produced in other parts of the country and transported long distances to markets in the area.

Transportation use. Some consideration has been given to the possibility of electrification of that section of the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe Railroad between San Bernardino, Calif., and Winslow, Ariz. The increasing scarcity of fuel supply in the region and the availability of low-cost power in the future would increase the desirability of converting this section of main line railroad from steam to electric operation. Electrification of this section would probably consume 300 million kilowatt-hours of electric energy annually.

Total energy requirements for all purposes in the lower basin power area rose from an average of about 350 kilowatt-hours per capita in 1910 to approximately 2,400 kilowatt-hours in 1943. It is anticipated total annual requirements will reach at least 3,500 kilowatt-hours per person by 1980.

An estimate of future load growth for the lower basin power area is shown in table CXXX and figure 15. Studies previously made through extensive research by the Federal Power Commission, by individual powergenerating agencies, and by State and local planning boards and commissions have been used as guides in preparing this forecast.

Potential generating capacity in the lower basin would be concentrated fairly well, as 1,922,000 kilowatts, or 99 percent of the total capacity of 1,945,400 kilowatts, would be installed in three plants located on the main stem of the Colorado River between Lee Ferry and Boulder Dam. The remaining capacity, 23,400 kilowatts, would be installed in six small widely separated plants in Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. The locations of the potential power plants are shown on the map "Colorado River Basin, Principal Power Systems, Existing and Potential” included in the appendix.

The potential power plants in the Lower Basin would have a total firm energy generation of 10,242,000,000 kilowatt-hours per year. Of this amount 37,000,000 kilowatt-hours would replace loss of generation at the Stewart Mountain hydroelectric plant because of a potential upstream diversion from Salt River. The net increase in firm generation therefore would be 10,205,000,000 kilowatt-hours. It is estimated that the present power developments, including units operating, under construction, authorized or planned, can produce about 11 billion kilowatt-hours annually. The present and potential plants described herein would be capable of a total output

FIGURE 15.-Lower Colorado River Basin, estimated trend, electric power load of market area

of more than 21 billion kilowatt-hours of firm energy annually.

Potential plants in the Lower Colorado River Basin are listed in table CXXXI which gives the location by stream, project, the installed capacity, and annual firm generation of each plant.

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

A tentative plan for construction of a high voltage power transmission grid for the delivery of power and energy to principal load centers in the lower basin power area is indicated on the map in the appendix. This map shows the general location of potential transmission lines which would complement the existing lines and connect the present and potential major generating plants with the principal load centers and with each other. Such a transmission system would permit a high degree of coordination in the operation of the power plants. This is desirable from the standpoint of economy of power system operation and of conservation of water and fuel resources. Some of the generating plants would be located at great distances from the load centers. Operating characteristics of hydroelectric plants vary greatly because of the fluctuation in water supply and in reservoir releases for irrigation, flood control, and other purposes. Under these conditions an extensive transmission system is required to produce a maximum amount of firm power and energy and to provide for supplying economically large quantities of power and energy to widely scattered load centers.

The total cost of the potential transmission system for the lower basin area including transmission lines, terminal substations, and intermediate switching and transformation facilities is estimated, on the basis of 1940 prices, at $195,000,000.

COST ALLOCATIONS

Construction of some of the potential power plants in the lower basin probably will be needed in the near future. Any plan for full development of the water resources will require the construction of many multiplepurpose projects. The costs of construction and operation of such multiple-purpose projects should, therefore, be distributed among the purposes served in accordance with benefits received. From available information it is estimated that the total cost for production and delivery of power and energy will permit the sale of large quantities of electricity at rates sufficiently low to be very attractive to the future growing power market.

Summary

Requirements for electric energy by the metropolitan areas of southern California, and by people in Arizona. and southern Nevada, have resulted in the construction of large hydroelectric power developments in the lower basin power area. The total hydroelectric generating capacity now installed, authorized, and planned to be installed in the power area is 1,959,625 kilowatts. Another 1,142,452 kilowatts of capacity are installed in fuel-burning electric generating equipment. Although the present power developments in the area are on a very large scale and supply a vast area, the potential hydroelectric developments would double the amount of hydroelectric capacity available to the lower basin power area. The greater degree of coordinated generation of the area's power plants, present and potential, which will be made possible by more extensive interconnecting transmission lines and better stream flow regulation, will result in a higher energy output per kilowatt of installed capacity than is now being obtained.

Load growth in the past has been at a high rate of increase from year to year, and the average consumption for the area is now well above the national average. In view of the expected increases in population throughout the area, and the resultant increases anticipated in the demand for electricity for use in the home, on the farm, and by mining, industrial, commercial, and other users, it is estimated that by 1980 the total load requirements of the area will be nearly three times the present load require

plants. Although such energy would have to be transmitted long distances, it is believed technical advances in electrical engineering will make this transmission practicable.

SUMMARY-COLORADO RIVER BASIN

Power in the Colorado River Basin has been developed in the upper basin on a much smaller scale than in the lower basin mainly for the reason that a much smaller market for power is available to the upper basin as compared with the large metropolitan markets in southern California available to the lower basin. The use of power in those metropolitan areas has made possible the great developments on the lower Colorado River. The only city of over 10,000 inhabitants in the upper basin is Grand Junction, Colo. Development of the vast land, water, and mineral resources in the upper basin area has been on a very small scale. Present power developments in the two basin areas are summarized for comparison in table CXXXII.

Future load requirements in the Colorado River Basin and its electric service areas will grow as the demand increases for products from the basin and the service areas. As more people move westward to live, the demand for western products will increase; wants of the millions of people living on the west coast will also create an increased market for the products of Western States. These new marketing possibilities will stimulate industrial development throughout the Western United States; and the Colorado River Basin area will benefit greatly by increased population, and industrial and economic growth. Development of water resources on a basin-wide basis, as now being planned by the Bureau of Reclamation, will do much to stimulate future activities in the basin.

The future economic growth of the Colorado River Basin will depend upon more extensive utilization of the basin's land and water resources. Electricity, a product of water development, is used by people in all walks of life-in homes, on farms, in offices, in mines, in factories, and wherever else they may be. The benefits of large amounts of low-cost electric energy accrue to everyone.

Industry uses great amounts of electric energy in modern practice. The greatest benefit to industry within the basin is likely to come from the development of low-cost hydroelectric power by the basin's potential power plants. The combination of large quantities of low-cost electricity with the abundant mineral resources in the basin offers untold possibilities. The people of the basin, the Mountain and Western States, the Pacific coast, the Nation, and the world would all benefit.

Mining and processing of minerals within the basin would be greatly stimulated if abundant low-cost power were made available. The high cost of electricity and undependable service from the present isolated plants are important handicaps to the expansion of mining and processing activities. In the upper basin are vast deposits of minerals including phosphates, magnesium, potash, coal, and oil shales; while in the lower basin are reserves of copper, gold, silver and zinc, along with other metals and nonmetallic minerals.

areas.

Transmission lines could be constructed to carry electricity from the basin's potential power plants to adjoining areas outside the basin, and thus stimulate growth in those Lines into central Utah, interconnecting potential upper basin plants and Bonneville Basin plants, would result in industrial development in combination with materials from within and outside the basin. A basic steel industry has been started in the West by construction of the new Geneva steel plant near Provo, Utah. This industry with its associated and allied industries will require electricity in quantity and at low cost if it is to be developed on a large scale. Copper and zinc refining by the electrolytic process offers important possibilities in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. As an example of what can be accomplished by the generation and transmission of large amounts of low-cost electricity, the lower Colorado River power system can be cited. Electric power from those plants is used in quantity in the lower basin areas in Nevada, Arizona, and California, while transmission lines carry large amounts of power to the metropolitan areas in southern California located many miles from the basin. These large developments have made profound changes in the economic structure of the lower basin power area. The construction of similar