kilowatt-hour. In general, plants operating at the higher plant factors had the lowest average annual production costs. The costs include operation and maintenance items, but excluded fixed charges on the investment and taxes.

Steam-electric plants. An analysis of production cost figures for steam-electric plants in the basin for which data are published by the Federal Power Commission shows that the total production cost is approximately 7 mills per kilowatt-hours. This includes operation, maintenance, and fuel costs, but does not include interest, depreciation, or taxes. Fuel cost is a major item of expense incurred in the operation of a steam-electric plant and for the plants selected this cost ranged from 2.1 mills to 3.18 mills per kilowatt-hour.

Internal combustion engine plants.-Cost data recently available on two internal combustion engine plants, with installed capacity totaling 750 kilowatts, show that the total production cost was 3.46 cents per kilowatt-hour, with fuel costing 0.86 cent per kilowatt-hour. The largest item of expense, amounting to 1.35 cents per kilowatthour, was for supervision, engineering, and labor.

POWER UTILIZATION

For the upper basin as a whole it is estimated that approximately 50 percent of the total amount of electricity used is consumed by industrial concerns connected with mining. Most of that industrial load is in the coal

mining areas of Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado and in the metal mining area of Colorado. Other customers are residential, rural, and commercial users, and municipalities.

Area in the Rocky Mountain region where large-scale mining developments have taken place have the highest average annual load requirement per capita. The general lack of such development in the upper basin area compared with the Rocky Mountain region as a whole largely accounts for the much lower average annual load requirement per capita within the upper basin.

Selling price of electric energy.-The amount of energy used by residential consumers depends mainly on the selling price of electric energy. In the upper basin the average selling price to residential consumers, as taken TABLE CXXIV. Electric energy load requirement in the upper basin (1943)

Power Market Survey and Load Trend

In making a power market survey and future load estimate for a given area, a knowledge of the area's physical characteristics, natural resources, principal economic activities, population distribution and growth, and other related factors is fundamental. Detailed discussions of those factors are included elsewhere in this report. They will be discussed in this chapter only to the extent necessary to develop the power market survey and to show how they affect the future load estimate.

The most important industries in the upper basin are livestock raising, farming, and mining. There is practically no manufacturing. Principal power loads are in the mining areas.

The development of the basin's resources, including the potential low-cost hydroelectric power, land, water, minerals, and timber would provide for considerable expansion of present industries and the establishment of many new industries. Such industries would include mining and refining of minerals, production of petroleum from oil shale and oil-bearing sandstone and by hydrogenation of coal, production of chemicals, development of lumber and related industries, manufacture of plastics, and the processing of foods.

FUTURE POWER CONSUMPTION

The following factors have been considered in estimating the total power load growth in the upper basin to the year 1980: the past load growth trends, the present status as compared with other areas, and economic trends and their probable effect on the future power market.

Estimates of future loads for each class of consumer have been made on the assumptions that low-cost power will become available, that the population will continue to grow at the rate of the past 40 years, that the number of farms will increase proportionately, and that the future labor force will more nearly resemble the present National labor force with respect to the distribution of workers in industrial classes.

Residential use. In 1943 the average amount of energy used per residential consumer served by principal utilities in the upper basin was approximately 1,000 kilowatt-hours per year. Past records indicate that the average use has been increasing at the rate of about 5 percent per year. The average of the Nation for 1943 was 1,060 kilowatt-hours a year per consumer, and has been increasing at a rate of approximately 6 percent per year over the past 20 years.

The amount of electricity used in the home depends upon many factors, among them being the cost of electrical energy and equipment and the cost of completing fuel and equipment for cooking and heating. Development of the potential hydroelectric power projects in the upper basin would make it possible to supply the customer with low-cost energy. The present average residential rate is over 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. With respect to the United States as a whole those States having the highest residential use have the lowest rates. Furthermore, those same States are among the leading States in the amount of hydroelectric power developed.

Although rates are higher in the upper basin than in some other sections of the country, they have been decreasing in recent years. The production of low-cost hydroelectric power will lower rates.

Electrical manufacturing concerns are carrying on research and experimental work to produce a greater variety of better and cheaper electrical appliances and equipment for use in the home, such as refrigerators, ranges, waterheaters, ironers, washers, air-conditioning and house-heating equipment and a host of other conveniences.

Heating devices, whether used for cooking, water heating, or house heating, are the largest consumers of electrical energy in the home. In areas where natural fuels, such as coal, oil, gas, or wood, are plentiful and low in price, they are used for heating. In the greater part of the upper basin extensive deposits of coal have been and will continue to compete with electric energy for home heating purposes.

Various estimates of the future average annual use per

residential customer in the United States range from 2,000 kilowatt-hours by 1960 to 14,000 kilowatt-hours by 1980, provided that the heating of homes with electricity is then common. Considering the present average consumption, cost of energy to the consumer, the availability of competing forms of energy, and the length of time expected to elapse before large-scale hydroelectric developments are completed, it appears that an average of 3,000 kilowatt-hours per year for the residential customer in the upper basin is a reasonable estimate for 1980. With an estimated 91,250 homes, urban and rural nonfarm, in the upper basin in 1980, and on the assumption that 95 percent will be electrified, the total annual residential use would be 260,000,000 kilowatt-hours.

Farm use. Farmers have less electricity available for use than any other class of people, although they need electricity not only as a matter of convenience but as a necessity on farms and in farm homes. In 1943 the Rural Electrification Administration reported that 44 percent of the farms in Colorado were electrified, 76 percent in Utah, 34 percent in Wyoming, and 19 percent in New Mexico. These percentages apply to the entire State. In the more sparsely settled areas in the upper basin the percentages were lower.

The census data for 1940, compiled by county areas of the upper basin, showed that 33 percent of farm dwelling units in the Colorado area, 42 percent in the Utah area, 25 percent in the Wyoming area, 11 percent in the New Mexico area, and 32 percent in the entire upper basin had electric lighting. Of the 27,402 rural farm dwelling units in the four State basin areas, only 8,741 had electric lighting equipment.

Expansion in rural electrical service in postwar years is to be expected. The Rural Electrification Administration has plans for an extensive program. Utilities also are preparing to build more rural extensions as soon as materials become available.

Data on present power use by farms are generally lacking as most utilities do not maintain a separate classification for sale of power to farms. An indication of average farm use, however, may be obtained from rural sales data where available. In west central Colorado the average rural sales including home, commercial, and rural power uses amounted to 875 kilowatt-hours per customer in 1939 and 1,083 kilowatt-hours in 1943, an average rate of increase to 5.9 percent per year. The 11 systems financed by the Rural Electrification Administration supplied an average of 728 kilowatt-hours per customer annually in the basin area.

Electricity is used on the farm and in the farm home for lighting, refrigeration, cooking, water supply, water heating, sterilizing, and to operate hotbeds, brooders, milking machines, and other equipment, depending on the type of farm. As the cost of energy and equipment becomes lower the farmer will use more electricity.

It is estimated that by 1980 the average annual use per farm in the upper basin will amount to 5,000 kilowatthours, and that the number of farms will be increased to 42,500. On the assumption that 85 percent of the total number of farms will be electrified, the total farm use will amount to 180,000,000 kilowatt-hours annually.

Commercial use. Since commercial and industrial sales data have been combined in utility reports, separate data on commercial use are not available. Types of commercial enterprises using electricity include wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate businesses; business and repair services; personal services (hotels, lodging houses, etc.); amusement, recreation, and related types of businesses; professional and related services; Government (local, State, Federal); and transportation, communication, and other public utilities.

One method of estimating the commercial load is to determine the average use of energy per employee engaged in the above enterprises. A survey made by the Federal Power Commission in 1941 of a number of establishments in Washington, D. C., showed that the average use per worker was 2,700 kilowatt-hours per year, excluding air conditioning. Future requirements for lighting and air conditioning of offices, hotels, stores, restaurants and other establishments will undoubtedly be much higher than at present. Low-cost electricity will make electric cooking devices attractive for hotels, restaurants, and other places. For the upper basin area, it is estimated that by 1980 the average annual commercial energy use per worker will be 3,000 kilowatt-hours and the total energy use will amount to 271,000,000 kilowatt-hours annually. Mining use. Little has been done to develop the vast mineral resources in the upper basin. Geologists, mineralogists, and others interested the subject claim that presently worked mineral deposits in some areas are rapidly becoming depleted and new sources of supply will be required within a few years. As an example, known petroleum reserves are estimated to be sufficient for only 15 years at the 1940 rate of consumption. The exhaustion of the high-grade iron ores at Mesabi, Minnesota, now threatening, may have important effects on the western iron and steel industry.

Among the more important possibilities for developing reserves of minerals are the production of petroleum from coal, oil shale, and oil sandstone; production of fertilizer from phosphate rock and potash bearing minerals; and production of chemicals from coal.

Large amounts of power are used by the mining industry, particularly since the mechanization of mining has been increasing. In 1940 the average amount of energy used in the United States in all mining operations was approximately 10,000 kilowatt-hours per worker. New mining enterprises that will be developed in the upper basin will be more highly mechanized, thus requiring much more energy per worker than is presently used. It

is estimated that by 1980 the use per worker will average at least 20,000 kilowatt-hours, annually, and with a total of 21,400 workers the mining industry in the upper basin will use 428,000,000 kilowatt-hours per year.

Manufacturing use. As resources are developed new manufacturing plants to process and refine the raw materials from the farms and mines will arise in the basin. They will include food-processing plants, smelters, refineries, and chemical works, most of which require large quantities of electric power in their operation. An average use of 15,000 kilowatt-hours per worker a year by 1980 is a conservative estimate. With a total of 21,400 workers, manufacturing will use 321,000,000 kilowatt-hours annually.

Transportation use.-No railways in the upper basin are electrified at present. The electrification of sections of the following main-line railroads has been considered: the Denver and Salt Lake Railway over the Rocky Mountains from Denver to Bond, Colo. The Denver and Rio Grande Western Railroad from Ogden to Helper, Utah; the Union Palific Railroad from Cheyenne to Granger, Wyo., and on into Ogden, Utah; and the Oregon Short Line from Granger to Pocatello, Idaho. The estimated annual energy use or electrification of these railroad sections located in the upper basin will amount to 180,000,000 kilowatt-hours.

Progress in railway electrification will depend upon many factors, including the financial condition of the operating companies, new developments in the design of locomotives, and cost of power, as well as future volume of travel.

The Diesel locomotive may not be used extensively in the future if petroleum supplies are conserved for other purposes. The gas-turbine locomotive is still in the experimental stage. Because of the higher speed and smoke-free operation of electric locomotives, it is possible that at least some of the existing lines will be electrified and possibly new ones constructed. It is estimated that by 1980 transportation facilities will consume 180,000,000 kilowatt-hours annually.

ESTIMATED FUTURE LOAD SUMMARY

Future loads for each class of consumer in the upper basin are estimated as follows:

Class of consumer:

Residential_

Farm

Commercial....

Mining-

Manufacturing

750

Total load requirements---

Maximum demand at 65 percent annual

load factor___

1, 640, 000, 000

245, 000, 000

1,885, 000, 000

330, 000 kilowatts

FIGURE 14.-Upper Colorado River Basin, estimated trend, electric power load of basin

total installed capacity of 1,713,000 kilowatts and an annual firm production of over 9 billion kilowatt-hours of electric energy. Plant capacities would range from 1,500 kilowatts to 400,000 kilowatts.

Potential power plants in the Upper Colorado River Basin are listed in table CXXVII which gives the stream location, project, installed capacity, and the annual firm generation of each plant.

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

The sites of the potential power plants in the upper basin are located away from principal load centers. In order to make power available to load areas, the plants would be connected with transmission lines to form an interconnected power system. This system would be connected to systems in other basins. Such a system would permit maximum flexibility of operation and maximum utilization of available water. Tentative locations of principal transmission lines are shown on the map entitled, "Colorado River Basin, Principal Power Systems, Existing and Potential," included in an appendix of this report.

The total cost of the upper basin potential transmission lines, terminal substations, and intermediate switch

ing and transformation facilities is estimated, on the basis of 1940 prices, at $171,000,000.

Steam-electric generating equipment may be desirable as a supplementary source of power and for stand-by, firming up, or peaking purposes on the hydroelectric system; in some cases steam-electric capacity may be needed to supply power for construction purposes.

COST ALLOCATIONS

Cost allocations have not been included in this report because further investigations will be necessary in order to obtain sufficient data to evaluate properly the multiple benefits. Although the cost of producing power has not as yet been definitely determined, it is believed the production cost will permit the sale of hydroelectric power at such low rates as to enable industrial establishments, communities, rural users, and others to make liberal use of electric energy.

Summary

Hydroelectric power is one of the most important resources of the upper basin. Only a small part of the