Supply

Baccalaureate degrees.-Projections are developed on the basis of what we know about trends in the number of high school graduates and class-by-class retention rates in our engineering colleges. Combining these factors, and assuming that the proportion of new college entrants choosing engineering will not continue to deteriorate, we can assume that the number of baccalaureate level engineering degrees will begin to rise again around 1967 after reaching a low of 34,000 to 35,000 in 1966. By 1970, we could be graduating engineers at a rate close to 47,000 a year. If these projections hold true-and they are a compromise between optimism and pessimism-our average annual production of engineering graduates1 over the decade would be 37,000 per

year.

Advanced degrees.-The rise in the number of advanced degrees in engineering will be much sharper than the rise in baccalaureate degrees. Projections for both degree levels are contained in table 2.

TABLE 2.-Projected graduate degrees in engineering

It should be noted that the quality of the group going on for advanced degrees has a direct relationship to the size of the baccalaureate pool from which such aspirants are drawn. One cannot skim more cream from the same quantity of milk without also weakening the

cream.

Demand

The most recent published study on current and projected demand for engineering manpower was conducted by the Engineering Manpower Commission in 1962 and was based on 1961 data. The results showed that the United States would require somewhat in excess of an average annual 48,000 graduating engineers between the years 1960 and 1971 in order to satisfy projected demand. The report, based on information gathered from over 500 participating companies and agencies, projected an engineering employment increase of 45 percent between 1961 and 1971. Certain industrial categories indicate a much larger rise in employment. These include: aircraft and parts (67 percent), chemicals (66 percent), and electrical machinery and electronics (65 percent).

The EMC Demand Survey also showed that the recruiting goal for Ph. D. engineers rose 66 percent between 1961 and 1962. The goal for engineers with master's degrees rose 55 percent. Obviously such goals will be difficult if not impossible to meet, however, it indicates

The measure of growth of engineering manpower must be confined to the number of baccalaureate degrees granted as opposed to the addition of master and doctor degrees to the baccalaureate group. Since individuals receiving advanced degrees were already Included in the count of baccalaureate degrees some years earlier, the total of all degree levels would result in counting some individuals two and possibly three times.

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the tremendous emphasis being given to advanced or specialized training.

NOTE.-Preliminary demand reactions drawn from a new survey which the Engineering Manpower Commission is now conducting may be available by November 13. If so, I shall be prepared to make a brief verbal addition to this report on up-to-the-minute indicators of demand. The new report is scheduled for publication in the spring of 1964.

The availability of graduate fellowships in engineering is a factor affecting advanced engineering degrees during the next decade. In March of 1963, the Engineering Manpower Commission conducted a survey in which deans of engineering colleges were asked for the number of additional fellowships which would be used if available. Based on responses from over 90 percent of engineering colleges offering graduate courses, the results showed that the number of available fellowships would need to be tripled in order to match present require

ments.

OBSOLESCENCE THE ENGINEER'S NO. 1 ENEMY

Within engineering circles, there is a good deal of current discussion about the hazards of obsolescence. The problem is by no means unique to the engineering profession, however, its effect is felt more intensely because of the accelerated pace with which technology has advanced during the last decade.

Obsolescence covers many sins. The most obvious form of obsolescence is associated with the inability of individual engineers to keep up with new developments in their field. Engineering colleges have recognized this problem and many are reacting to it by developing programs of continuing education. Such programs, perhaps best illustrated by the one now being developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, will enable engineers to return to the college campus for periods of time varying from a week to a year to update themselves through formalized classwork. The engineering societies are also attacking this problem through a vast network of meetings and symposia on new applications of technology. This enables the engineer to keep himself abreast of developments in his field via a shorter and more informal route.

Obsolescence can also be the result of a deemphasis in certain fields of technology which severely reduces manpower requirements and makes it necessary for engineers to radically reorient their specialty. This may be one of the inherent hazards of deep specialization.

Obsolescence can also relate to the process by which new knowledge is made available. This refers to the obsolescence of channels through which information is stored and the ease with which it can be retrieved in the proper time and at the proper place. To overcome this form of obsolescence, the engineering professional community is undertaking the study of a vast new system of information storage and retrieval.

Finally, obsolescence can refer to an inability to use engineering manpower effectively under given conditions. It is quite possible that our patterns of manpower utilization have not kept up with the growth of technology. For example, the Commission has long pointed toward the need for a closer examination of Government contracting

policies as they affect the utilization of scientific and engineering manpower. In 1959 the Commission issued a report on this subject which was referred to the Department of Defense for consideration. Most of the basic problems, however, still remain unresolved.

ENGINEERING MANPOWER AND THE MILITARY

The Engineering and Scientific Manpower Commissions have long called attention to the need for a reexamination of the manner in which engineers, scientists, and other highly trained persons may best serve their country in time of national emergency. The Commissions have suggested that the Universal Military Training and Service Act be amended to authorize Selective Service local boards to select men having critical skills for assignment to essential civilian activities in lieu of induction into the Armed Forces. In this way, the optimum utilization of men having critical skills will be recognized as sufficiently important in the achievement of national goals to require the assignment of such registrants to essential civilian activities. A man so selected for assignment would be free to move and to engage in the employment of his choice, so long as he was in an essential civilian activity.

It is suggested that registrants be required to serve under assignment for a total period of 72 months (approximately the same period of Active Reserve service now required of the inductee), following which he would be relieved of his military obligation. If the military situation worsened, the registrant's file would be reviewed by the local board and the individual selected for further assignment to assential activity or for induction into the Armed Forces, as the national interest might require.

These are actions that the Nation would have to take of necessity in the event of substantial or full mobilization. It would be far better to establish the principles now and perfect the operation while there is still time, than to wait until the Nation is in the throes of new mobilization during which there would be great initial confusion and uncertainty in the Federal Government and Selective Service as to just where the best interests of the Nation might lie in manpower

matters.

What is suggested here is not that national service be avoided, but that the Nation receive maximum benefit from its professionally trained men and women. There are actions that the Nation would undoubtedly be forced to take in the event of mobilization, because the characteristics of modern warfare have changed so radically. Perhaps equally important is the need to establish the concept of peacetime service somewhat parallel to that of wartime service.

CONCLUSION

I believe we are facing unique times, in which our engineering and scientific brainpower will play a major role. Our ability to effectively utilize such highly trained men and women will be one of the foundation stones of our future national development.

LABOR FORCE GROWTH AND JOB OPPORTUNITIES: SOME DOCTRINES AND THE EVIDENCE

(By Gertrude Bancroft, Special Assistant to the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor)

The size and composition of the labor force used to be the rather specialized and esoteric interests of only a few American scholars. They examined the differential rates of labor force participation of various segments of the population and uncovered the demographic factors accounting for differences-age, color, sex, urban-rural residence, marital status, family composition, educational attainment. They generally agreed that there were some forces pushing people into the labor force, such as the need for income to maintain or improve standards of living, and other factors pulling them in, such as attractive and stimulating jobs and high wage rates. Changes in propensity to work were seen to be more important than demographic changes in accounting for trends in the labor force, but there was no consensus on what combination of factors determined the level of the propensities of the various groups.

In recent years, interest in the size of the labor force and in its long and short-run changes has spread from the little group of scholars into the realm of popular and political discussion. Failure of the labor force to grow year by year exactly as implied by one or another past projection has been taken to mean a failure of the economy to provide enough jobs, and the gap has been described as a form of hidden unemployment. Some economists have proposed adding this "deficit" to the unemployment figures each month. It has also been argued that, regardless of past trends, any current reduction in the propensity of the adult population, male or female, to be in the labor force should be treated as a reflection of job shortages and hence another form of unemployment.

The belief that demand for workers has strongly influenced supply has not always prevailed. A brief review of the doctrines in this matter indicates that until the 1940's, the labor force or the number of gainful workers was thought to be a slowly changing quantity, depending on the size of the working-age population. It was recognized that women were gradually increasing their propensity to work outside the home and that the extension of education was postponing the age at which young people started to work. As the population became more urbanized, men in the older ages showed lower labor force rates, since industrial jobs could not be held into old-age like farm jobs. But these were secular changes that proceeded at a "normal" rate, it was thought.

Apart from the decennial censuses of population, there were almost no measures of the number of workers. During the entire course of the great depression, national unemployment was estimated, not measured (except for the 1930 Census of Population, the 1931 special census and a national voluntary registration and check in 1937). The common technique for all the estimates was to subtract estimates of employment from a working population arrived at by extrapolating the 1930 census data. It was generally believed that the labor force