Employment of maintenance electricians may increase by about 30 percent between 1960 and 1970 as a result of continuing industrial growth and the long-term trend toward increased use of electrical and electronic equipment throughout industry, commerce, and goverment. About the same employment growth is anticipated for construction electricians in the 1960's owing to the expected large expansion in new construction and also in the volume of construction maintenance and repair work.

For the two groups of electricians combined, the employment increase may amount to some 100,000 over the 1960 decade. In addition, about 12,500 electricians will need to be replaced annually, because of death and retirement, and transfers to other occupations. Annual requirements for new electricians may thus average about 22,500 during the 1960's, and apprenticeships would provide less than one-third (31 percent) of this number of new craftsmen if the level of apprenticeship training remains the same as during the past 10 years." Unless electrician apprenticeships are greatly increased in the years ahead, most new entrants into electrician jobs (especially maintenance electrician jobs) will continue to be workers who "pick up" the skills of the trade through informal training, by working as helpers for many years on different jobs, or by observing or being taught by experienced electricians. This informal procedure usually takes longer than serving an electrician's apprenticeship and seldom results in all-round mastery of the trade, though workers may learn the fundamental skills of the trade through vocational schools, correspondence courses, or training in the Armed Forces.

Accelerating changes in construction methods and materials and rising skill requirements for electricians make it increasingly important for workers to enter the trade through apprenticeship. For example, some maintenance electricians who entered the trade several years ago now must learn basic electronics in order to service the electronic equipment which is now being installed in industrial establishments and large commercial and residential buildings. The all-round training provided under apprenticeship programs is necessary also to prepare journeymen electricians for supervisory positions.

Tool and die makers.-About 85,000 new tool and die makers may be needed during the 1960's to meet the increased requirements for these craftsmen and to replace experienced tool and die makers who retire, die, or transfer to other fields of work. However, if the level of apprentice training in this trade remains substantially the same as in recent years, only about 45 percent of the needed number of new tool and die makers will qualify through apprenticeships during the 10-year period.

The anticipated expansion in electrical equipment, machinery, aerospace, and other metal working industries will result in a continued increase in employment of tool and die makers. There were about 150,000 workers in the occupation in 1960. On the basis of the growth projected for the industries employing most of these workers, and after consideration of the changing occupational employment patterns of these industries, it is estimated that requirements for tool and die

A balance sheet which compares the projected needs for electricians with estimated apprenticeship completions and indicates the basis for the apprenticeship estimate is included in the technical appendix.

makers may increase by more than one-fifth between 1960 and 1970, to a total of 185,000. Unlike other machining workers, whose employment may be adversely affected by technological changes, tool and die makers are needed to help put many technological developments into effect. Moreover, additional tool and die makers will be needed to make and repair the dies and holding devices used in mass-production industries.

Replacement needs for tool and die makers estimated at about 5,000 per year during the 1960's-may exceed the number of job openings that can be expected annually as a result of increased demand for these skilled craftsmen. Most replacement needs will result from retirements and deaths of experienced workers. (The average age of tool and die makers is nearly 2 years higher than for male workers as a whole.) Transfers of tool and die makers to other occupations will also create some replacement needs.18

The proportion of new workers trained through apprenticeship is higher in this than in most other skilled trades. Nevertheless, only about 45 percent of the total number of workers who must become qualified annually as tool and die makers, to meet the projected growth and replacement needs, will be provided through apprentice trainingassuming that the level of such training remains about the same as in recent years (1955-61). The other chief source of tool and die makers, which will have to be relied on heavily unless apprenticeship programs are substantially expanded, is upgrading of other metal machining workers. After years of experience as machine tool operators or machinists, and after vocational or correspondence school training, men can sometimes qualify for tool and die making jobs.

[Statement before the Subcommittee on Employment and Manpower, Nov. 14, 1963] SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER NEEDS OF THE NATION

(By Dr. Leland J. Haworth, Director, National Science Foundation) Mr. Chairman, I am grateful to you for providing me an opportunity to appear before this subcommittee to discuss the scientific and technical manpower needs of the Nation. You will recall that you suggested in your letter inviting me to testify that particular attention might be given to (1) an inventory of scientific and technical manpower resources of the country, (2) projections of future scientific and technical manpower needs, (3) existing and likely shortages of such manpower in general and in colleges and universities in particular, and (4) programs underway and needed to meet needs and eliminate shortages. The National Science Foundation is of course vitally

18 A balance sheet which compares the projected needs for tool and die makers with estimated apprenticeship completions is included in the technical appendix.

interested in these topics and I am pleased to have an opportunity to discuss with the subcommittee some of the Foundation's study findings and programs relevant to this important subject.

INVENTORY AND DEPLOYMENT OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERSONNEL

Number of scientific and technical personnel

While there are always definitional problems involved in statistical data on scientists and engineers, National Science Foundation studies as a rule count the numbers of professionals engaged in scientific and technical work in natural and social sciences, mathematics, and engineering. This is in contradistinction to counts based on academic training alone, and is believed to be a more accurate one in view of Occupational mobility. For example, as many as 10 percent of the engineering college graduates do not enter the engineering profession upon graduation, and even larger numbers leave the professsion for other occupations, notably management, at some time during their careers. Professional work is defined as the level at which college graduates and others with equivalent experience and training are expected to perform.

It should also be noted that these professional fields are highly dynamic. At a particular point in time, the scientific and engineering work force consists of a number of individuals employed in certain specialties, with a definite level of training, and identifiable work A subsequent examination of this work force would find many of these individuals dispersed to nonscience and nonengineering activities but new entrants will have come into the work force to augment the remaining nucleus of the original group. An even greater shifting in work activities, specialties, and geographic areas will be found in this highly mobile work force. Although this mobility and other difficulties present us with serious measurement problems, we have accumulated a body of information which we believe to be reasonably reliable.

We thus can say that approximately 935,000 engineers and 500,000 physical, life, and social scientists are professionally engaged in scientific and technical work in 1963. In addition, an estimated 1 million technicians are employed in these fields, frequently as science and engineering aids. Secondary school teachers of science and mathematics, sometimes included as a part of this work force, number about 250,000 in addition. Engineers account for about 1.2 percent of the Nation's labor force, and about 0.5 percent of the population. Scientists represent even smaller percentages, of course, at 0.7 percent of the labor force and 0.3 percent of the population. (See accompanying chart.)

More detailed data on manpower in science and engineering fields are reported for 1960 in table 1. Engineers as a class represent about 66 percent of all scientists and engineers. Within engineering, electrical, mechanical, and civil engineers are the most numerous and together account for about 60 percent of the engineering total. Physical scientists are about 18 percent of the total, with nearly half of them in chemistry. Physicists, mathematicians, and earth scientists each account for 25,000 to 32,000. Life scientists amount to 11 percent and are not dominated by any single field. Agricultural, biological, and medical scientists and psychologists each account for 30,000 to 40,000 of the total. Social scientists account for only 5 percent.

TABLE 1.-Scientists and engineers and number with doctorates, by field, 1960

NOTE.-Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.

The doctorate is held by about 7 percent of all scientists and engineers and represents the highest level of research training. However, most of the doctorates are awarded in the sciences, and 38 percent are held by physical scientists, another 38 percent by life scientists, and 16 percent by social scientists. About 8 percent of the doctorates are held by engineers.

Work activities of scientists and engineers

Scientists and engineers are principally engaged in research and development, production and operations, and college and university teaching. Smaller numbers are employed as managers, writers, and consultants. The proportions of scientists and engineers in each of these activities are markedly different, however. Table 2 provides estimated percentage distributions of scientists and engineers by type of work activities. (See accompanying chart.)