Summary of Request

To date Congress has passed a continuing resolution at an annual level of $10,780,000 for FY 1981; it is available through December 15, 1980. In addition OTA will request $370,000 for the increased pay costs effective on October 5, 1980 and will submit a supplemental request for programs for $370,000.

OTA's New Authority history and projections are shown below:

The compounded annual increase from FY 1978 to FY 1982 is approximately 11 percent in current dollars but represents a total net increase of only 4 percent in constant dollars (purchasing power) as determined by the GNP Implicit Price Deflator for Federal Purchase of Goods and Services (less compensation and Commodity Credit Corporation).

The funds requested ($13,100,000) represent the best estimate by the Board of what is required to effectively and efficiently carry out the anticipated workload. It provides for recovery of cost of living increases

plus funds for one additional assessment (average cost is $400,000) above our current workload.

Elsewhere in this request is evidence of the growing reliance on OTA assessments both in Congress and elsewhere, as illustrated, for example, by a surge in the requests for and purchase of OTA reports.

OTA funding has been on an annual appropriation basis since FY 1979, whereas previously no-year funding was provided. This change has made it more difficult to manage assessments efficiently, as they are essentially multi-year in character. In order to provide more management flexibility across the fiscal years, the Congress is being requested to also authorize a reappropriation. The maximum amount requested is five percent of the total appropriation and would provide management with the flexibility to handle year-end transactions in ways that will result both in better assessment reports and in improved productivity.

The General Accounting Office has provided administrative support to OTA since its inception. However, we have now mutually determined that it is to our best advantage that we undertake most of our administrative and financial requirements through OTA staff. The Comptroller General has offered assistance in making the transition during FY 1981. The target date to provide these services through in house staff is the start of the FY 1982 budget year.

A computerized financial Management Information System (MIS) is being put into place and will be of considerable help in managing our funds most efficiently. Plans are underway to extend the MIS into other areas such as publication requests and inventory.

PROGRAM OUTLOOK

OTA's work in FY 1982 will continue to emphasize a highly-qualified staff performing comprehensive analyses of technology and its applications. OTA's activities will also include specialized responses to immediate Committee needs in those instances where OTA's current and past assessments have utilized or generated appropriate expertise.

OTA's strategy is to continue to respond to Committee interests and priorities while, at the same time, being prepared to share with the Committees our perception of emerging technological issues and trends. OTA's resources can be applied most usefully in examining science and technology subjects that have one or more of the following characteristics.

1. Areas where science and technology are moving rapidly and have major implications for Congress. Fruits of scientific research provide a richer understanding of our world and also serve as a main source for social progress Three examples illustrate this point.

through an advancing economy.

Molecular Engineering: The present and prospective rate of advance in molecular biology research is phenomenal and is exceeded only by the diverse and powerful implications it holds for society. Areas in which applications will probably be significant in this decade include production of complex bio-chemicals needed to treat human disorders and diseases, development of improved food material, and creation of specialized enzymes and microbes to upgrade organic materials and digest

toxic wastes. Perhaps more important will be the application of this new knowledge about how life works to improve the treatment of human

illness.

Microelectronics: A steady advance in research in another "micro world" of surfaces, solids, semiconductors, and super-miniature electronic circuits — promises continued technological developments that will have an impact on our national security and in virtually every sector of our economy. The same advances in the physics and chemistry of solid and liquid surfaces that will allow more effective computers and telecommunication devices will also lead to more effective ways to convert sunlight to storable, high-grade energy. society will be profound as "smart" electronics both create and displace jobs and create new patterns of social communication.

Implications for

Energy: Driven by higher oil prices and projected scarcities of current energy sources, research in both new energy sources (e.g., fusion) and in ways to use energy more productively (fuel substitution and conservation) is accelerating.

Because the future will be characterized

by both higher costs of resources and uncertainty of supply, it is important to support energy research and to quickly take advantage of the fruits of its successes. This implies sustained federal attention, especially when market signals do not adequately reflect either marginal (replacement) costs of energy or non-market costs such as those

associated with our overdependence on imports.

2.

Situations where there are major socio-economic impacts from existing technologies or where important opportunities exist for using technology to meet national needs. Toxic and hazardous solid, liquid, and gaseous wastes are current examples. These unwanted residuals from the processing and use of resources will not go away through protracted arguments and adversary proceedings. However, a variety of technological strategies exist that can be employed to (a) clean up previously-deposited toxic waste; (b) improve the way that presently-generated wastes are handled; (c) reduce waste in streams by improving the quality of discharges at their source (mostly industrial processes).

A second major set of examples concerns international security. Threats to security derive from such diverse considerations as shifts in comparative military capabilities of various nations and coalitions (especially NATO, the Warsaw Pact and the PRC), both short-term and protracted vulnerability of U.S. access to world oil supplies, and the erosion of U.S. competitiveness in international trade. In each instance, improved scientific and technological capabilities must play a critical role in improving American security.

One

3. Long-term trends and implications related to science and technology. important responsibility of OTA is to provide foresight about the longer-term future, especially as it might be shaped by current policy, evolving technology, and underlying forces such as demographic change and resource depletion:

O Much is known about the very profound but sharply different demographic changes faced domestically and in less industralized