In other parts of the island, the Filipinos who are in business and leaders in the various professions privately stated their opposition to independence and expressed their opinion that complete independence would be followed by chaos and anarchy. They also stated that so much money had been spent in creating the independent sentiment and that freedom of speech on the subject had been so completely suppressed that most of those not in favor of independence dare not express their sentiments.

ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

Consideration of economic factors alone demonstrates that the Philippine Islands are not yet prepared for independence. Exterior trade, domestic production, and general business activities have been developed through a period of over 20 years upon the basis of substantial free trade with the United States. It would take many years to make the readjustments of trade, business, and governmental income which would be necessitated by the subjection of Philippine products to the present United States tariff duties. The immediate application of those duties would certainly be followed promptly by effects upon the islands' export trade, agricultural, and industrial activities and general business life so severe as to bring widespread suffering and ruin. The resulting shock would probably be reflected in unbalanced governmental budgets, loss of public confidence, extensive bank and business failures, the dissipation of monetary reserves, currency inflation, collapse of public credit, operating deficits for the railroads, general unemployment, and lowered wages and standards of living. Under these conditions the maintenance of public order would present a very serious problem. Immediate or early independence, in connection with the conditions outlined above, would render the islands peculiarly vulnerable to penetration of various kinds from without and to the eventual loss of economic or political independence, or both. Mass immigration from overpopulated Asiatic countries would be another danger to be faced by an independent Philippine government, too weakened to offer effective resistance.

The consequences of losing free access to American markets should be somewhat less radical if appropriate legislation were passed a considerable time before the date it would take effect. The delay to be of much value would have to be sufficiently long to permit of real progress in adjustments to the anticipated conditions.

Readjustments would require all the more time since the development of new world markets for the principal Philippine products would prove difficult if not impossible. The Philippine balance of trade with the world, exclusive of the United States, is normally well against the islands. In the case of sugar, drastic reconstitution of the industry, or even the substitution of other industries for it, would be necessary. Either procedure would require many years and the writing off of very large existing capital investments.

In order to prevent this problem from assuming more formidable proportions some of the most responsible of the Filipino leaders have urged that a reasonable limitation on free sugar imports into the United States be imposed in the near future. Such action, if not too drastic in nature, they believe would work to the ultimate benefit of

the islands by encouraging diversification of crops, and therefore a healthier economic growth.

Certain other economic problems of the Philippine Islands await satisfactory solution. Among such questions are those of the relations between rural landowners and tenants; the just and definite determination of ownership to lands, and the issuance of land titles evidencing ownership. These questions constitute potential sources of agrarian unrest pending the working out, by the insular authorities, or satisfactory solutions to them. Under American supervision, progress is being made along those lines.

To sum up the economic situation of the islands in its relationship to immediate independence, it is a fair conclusion that separation from the United States would soon result in widespread suffering and in a distinct drop in the standard of living. The extraordinary gains of 30 years would quickly be lost by the Philippine population.

SOCIAL AND CULTURAL FACTORS

Complete and effective self-government on the basis of popular representation will not be possible until there is developed, as a constructive influence in public affairs, a more informed and influential public opinion than now exists in the islands. A present obstacle to such development is the seriously restricted freedom of speech that obtains, particularly in the expression of views in opposition to those of the dominant leaders. Continued progress in general education is mandatory.

A more serious problem than that of general education exists in the separation of the Philippine population into two rather welldefined groups, between which a traditional hostility has existed for centuries. The first of these, known collectively as the Christian Filipinos, comprises over 90 per cent of the population. It is made up in general of all those elements that came directly under Spanish influence during the many years of that country's domination. They were incorporated into the Church of Spain and were influenced, though in varying degrees, by Spanish laws, customs, and languages. The other group, known as the non-Christians, is composed, according to the census of 1918, of about a million Mohammedans and so-called pagans. Though comprising less than 10 per cent of the population, they occupy about 40. per cent of the land area in the archipelago, being concentrated in nine special Provinces in Sulu, Mindanao, and Luzon. For centuries these people maintained by force of arms practical independence of Spanish and Christian Filipino rule. Their tribal laws, customs and governments were preserved intact at the time of the Spanish-American War.

The most important non-Christian elements are composed of the Mohammedans (totaling approximately 443,000 in 1918, according to the census of that year) mainly concentrated in certain special Provinces of Mindanao and in the special Sulu Province, and the so-called "pagans" (about 508,000 in 1918) mainly concentrated in certain special Provinces of Mindanao and in the Mountain Province and Nueva Vizcaya (both special Provinces of northern Luzon). Altogether, about 811,500 non-Christians (approximately 8 per cent of the total population of the Philippine Islands) were shown as

inhabiting the nine special Provinces in question. These nine Provinces included (considering both Christians and non-Christians) only about 10 per cent of the total population of the Philippine Islands. In area, however, the six special Provinces in Mindanao include about 90 per cent of the total area of that island, and the nine special Provinces include altogether about 40 per cent of the total land area of the archipelago. Over 75 per cent of the total population of the great area included in the nine special Provinces were recorded as non-Christians in the 1918 census. Due to the relatively dense Christian population of the two regular Provinces of Mindanao, slightly less than 50 per cent of the total population of that island was listed in 1918 as Mohammedan and pagan combined.

Over 213,000 non-Christians (nearly all classed as "pagans") inhabited two special Provinces (the Mountain Province and Nueva Vizcaya) of norther Luzon, where they constituted over 76 per cent of the total population of those Provinces. The non-Christian population in each of four (out of a total of six) sub-Provinces of one of these two Provinces (the Mountain Province) constituted from 95.5 to 99.6 per cent of the total population of the respective subProvinces. About 169,000 non-Christians (nearly all Mohammedans) were in the Sulu Province, where they constituted over 97 per cent of the total population of the Sulu Archipelago. Over 429,000 nonChristians (Mohammedans and pagans) were in the six special Provinces of Mindanao, where they constituted over 70 per cent of the total population of those six Provinces. The special Provinces in Mindanao included nearly 90 per cent of the total area of that island, which contained, in addition to the six special Provinces, two regular Provinces. Two of the special Provinces of Mindanao (Lanao and Cotabato) were preponderantly Mohammedan in religion, the percentage in Lanao being over 91 per cent of the total population. The pagan population of another of those special Provinces (Bukidnon) was shown as 77.8 per cent of the total provincial population. In each of two other special Provinces of Mindanao (Zamboanga and Davao), Mohammedans and pagans combined comprised over 50 per cent of the total provincial population. The non-Christian population of the sixth special Province of Mindanao (Agusan) was less than 14 per cent of the total provincial population. The two regular Provinces of Mindanao (Misamis and Surigao), situated on the north coast of the island, together included a little over onetenth of the total area of Mindanao but over one-third of that island's total population. Only about 2 per cent of their combined population was listed as non-Christian.

Civil government was extended throughout the non-Christian areas by American effort. The surrender of these people to external authority was to the Government of the United States and not to the Christian Filipinos. The native elements that are to-day dominant in Filipino political life and government never established, of their own initiative, effective control over the non-Christian elements in the special Provinces.

The existence of these two antagonistic elements in the population presents certain difficulties in preparing the islands for self-government. The non-Christian elements, as a rule, have had less than a single generation of contact with the influences or institutions of

Europe and America, and have made relatively small advances in education and culture. Christian Filipinos, on the other hand, through centuries of contact with occidental civilization, have gradually adopted, to a considerable degree, western methods, customs, and government. This distinction is recognized under the governmental system now in operation in the islands. The special Provinces are administered under special laws, through the "bureau of non-Christian tribes." Their legislative representatives, and in some cases governors and local officials, are appointed instead of elected. Schools have been established and other measures initiated with a view to assisting the inhabitants to overcome ultimately the heavy handicap in meeting modern conditions, which long isolation has imposed upon them. Speaking generally, however, the Christian and non-Christian elements of the population are still widely separated in their relative stages of advancement.

The inhabitants of the special Provinces do not, as a rule, desire their present incorporation into an independent Filipino State. Under existing conditions the United States can not, in fairness and justice, take action which would turn over to the unsupervised control of an independent Filipino government, dominated by Christian Filipinos, the "non-Christian" elements constituting the principal population of about two-fifths of all the land in the islands. Measures carried out under American sovereignty have radically reduced the ability of the non-Christians to maintain their rights against encroachments by those who may covet their lands or other properties. One of these measures was the disarming of the non-Christian elements a circumstance that makes it impossible to retain their ancient freedom through force. In their present situation these peoples would also be greatly handicapped, under an independent Filipino government of the entire Philippine Archipelago, in any efforts they might make to secure, by peaceful and orderly means, a fair measure of participation in their own governmental affairs.

The American obligation to non-Christians is as great as toward other elements of the population. Should the proposals now being vigorously pressed from both American and Filipino sources result in premature Philippine independence, it would become necessary for the United States to make separate and special provisions concerning the future status of the nine special Provinces.

While the specific situation of the non-Christian element has been discussed at some length, it is but one example of the great strides that must yet be made in unification of the population through social and cultural development.. Education, fair treatment, sympathetic control, and patience are demanded, and it remains the obligation of the United States to see that these are accorded.

CAPACITY FOR SELF-DEFENSE

One of the most vital responsibilities of an independent nation is the protection of its territory and national rights from exterior aggression. History, even very recent history, furnishes indisputable proof that treaties alone can not be relied upon as assurance of freedom from such aggression.

Under present economic conditions the Philippine Islands are totally incapable of maintaining a professional force that could offer

any effective resistance to an invading army. They have no industries capable of producing munitions of war, while the building and maintenance of a fleet is completely out of the question. In the interests of economy the Philippine Government, if compelled to maintain an army, would be forced to organize it by conscription. In short, there does not seem to be any reasonable hope, either in the proximate or distant future, that the Philippine Islands can successfully undertake the primary and most essential function of independent government, namely, self-defense.

ECONOMIC FACTORS AS THEY AFFECT THE UNITED STATES

The Filipino leaders have repeatedly stated that they are willing to put a limitation. on the amount of sugar admitted free to the United States. They desire to do this in order to prevent the possibility of the Philippine Islands becoming a one-crop nation. They wish to diversify their crops as well as their industries.

While admitting the necessity for a limitation and for a complete readjustment, I think it only fair to analyze the propaganda from the American standpoint which is aiding the present movement for Filipino independence.

AMERICAN INTERESTS IN ECONOMICS OF THE ISLANDS

The introduction of Philippine sugar on a duty-free basis does not affect the price of beet or cane sugar produced in the United States. The Department of Commerce is authority for the statement that "prices of sugar in the United States are determined largely by the Cuban crop rather than by the free entry of sugar from the Philippine Islands." According to the best available statistics less than 60 per cent of the sugar consumed in 1929 in the United States was produced in this country and in its outlying possessions. The duty-free entry of Philippine sugar therefore operates principally to displace, in the United States market, an equivalent amount of Cuban sugar, which is thus forced to seek a less favorable market elsewhere. Dutyfree entry into the United States of Philippine sugar is, therefore, of present practical importance to the Cuban rather than to the American sugar producer. It is true that some American banking and other interests have become financially involved in the immense expansion of Cuban sugar production effected within relatively recent years. However, consideration for Cuban sugar interests, and for those Americans who have become involved therein, should not extend to the sacrifice of sugar properties developed in the Philippine Islands under American policies and sovereignty. Cuba is now permitted annually a preferential market in the United States for sugar imports several times as large as the total annual shipments from the Philippine Islands. During the two years, 1929 and 1930, total sugar imports to the United States from Cuba were nearly four and one-half times the total of Philippine sugar shipments to the United States.

Opposition from representatives of American farm interests to the duty-free entry of Philippine coconut oil has also been a factor in the movement for early Philippine independence. This attitude is based on mistaken premises. Importation of Philippine coconut oil