Common Market policies concerning rice are still undetermined. Howere to the extent that initial regulations might tend to restrict rice imports from outside the Community, U.S. cash sales could be sharply affected. Plans for 1964 The U.S. Rice Export Development Association has continued to make su stantial progress during the past year in promoting the consumption of rice in a number of countries. This association represents the entire rice industry the United States. They are now operating in the United Kingdom, the Nethe lands, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Republic of South Africa, and Scandinavia. Work is planned to get underway in West Germany, the Midde East, and several other African countries. The project has been well receive in all areas and appears to be a promising factor in developing a strong consumer demand for U.S. rice. FEED GRAINS World situation World feed grain production in 1962-63 is estimated at 316 million metri tons, slightly above the 1961-62 total. A record barley crop accounts for the slight increase. World production of oats was smaller. World production of 7,310 million bushels of corn is 100 million bushels below the 1961-62 crop, but still sharply above average. A moderate reduction in the United States, together with smaller crops in France, Italy, and the Soviet Union account for most of the decline. Barley production is at an alltime record in 1962-63. The world total of 3,720 million bushels exceeds the previous record in 1960 by 160 million bushels The largest single increase was in Western Europe, where expanded acreage and high yields combined to bring total output to 1,100 million bushels, 300 million above the 1955-59 average. This year's world production of oats, estimated at 3,375 million bushels, re flects a continuing decline in oats acreage. An estimated total of 85.6 million acres in 1962-63 contrasts with the 1955-59 average of 118.4 million. The acre age reductions have been fairly general in all major producing regions and were particularly large in the Soviet Union last year. Short-term outlook World feed grain exports in 1962-63 are not likely to attain the record level of 1961-62. However, the decline is expected to be moderate. Total exports amounted to 27.9 million metric tons in 1961-62 as compared with 23.4 million in the previous year and the previous record of 23.7 million in 1959-60. US feed grain exports were a record 14.7 million metric tons in 1961-62 as compared with 11.5 million tons in 1960-61. Prospects for the immediate future indicate a high import demand for feed grains. The United States is expected to again supply slightly over half of the total world trade in feed grains in 1962-63. Long-term outlook The long-term outlook for world feed grain exports is for continued growth in volume. This is particularly true because of increasing demand in high-growthrate countries. These countries are showing a continued upward trend in live stock numbers, improvement in living standards and diets, and steadily increas ing consumption of livestock and poultry products. While U.S. exports of feed grains to the EEC have increased thus far this season compared to the same period last year, the prospects for future sales are in doubt. In the years ahead, our feed grain exports to the EEC are likely to be adversely affected if, as is feared, the Community adopts a high price level for grain. In this case, production in France will be stimulated and the EEC's self-sufficiency increased. Plans for 1964 Plans are made to continue to explore by all means the development and expansion of markets for feed grains throughout the world; to improve the quality of U.S. exports; to provide information on grade and quality of US grains to improve the freedom of access and competitive status in foreign markets; to strengthen liaison between U.S. and foreign cooperators in market development, and to encourage research in marketing and potentials in all major foreign markets. World situation BEANS The 1962 bean supply in the free world is estimated at 99.9 million bags and 2.4 percent below a year ago. This, coupled with suspected short crops in the unreported Communist areas, has resulted in short supplies and rapidly rising prices in West Europe, the world's largest bean-importing market. Prices have risen 20 to 50 percent in recent months in most countries and for several classes of beans. The international trade situation centers in Europe as the world's major importer and the United States as the major supplier with South America, the Communist Balkans, and Africa supplying smaller quantities. Short-term outlook The United States this year has a large supply of pea beans, preferred by bean canrers, but frost reduced the supply of Great Northern beans preferred in the European grocery trade. Exports are not coming from the Balkans this year and the South American supplies harvested last May were exhausted early. Thus, U.S. white beans are moving to Europe in larger quantities and earlier in the season than usual. But high prices of Great Northern beans in the United States are holding exports below what might have occurred had U.S. supplies and prices been normal. Pea bean exports will be held below available U.S. exportable supply by limitations of foreign canning capacity and by preference for larger white beans in the European grocery trade. U.S. colored bean production has been sharply curtailed since loss of the Cuban market and the 1962 pinto crop was cut back by the same frost that reduced Great Northerns. There are moderate surpluses of black beans and red kidney beans in New York State, but these and surplus pea beans will be moved into domestic and foreign relief. Long-term outlook For colored beans, much depends on developments in Cuba and Latin America generally. Economic improvements in Latin American and removal of trade restrictions there would expand outlets for colored beans. Inquiries from Latin America for U.S. beans are becoming more frequent each year and shipments under various U.S. export programs are increasing. For white beans, much depends upon development of the canning industry in Europe. Canning of beans by U.S. companies in the United Kingdom has increased that market by 1 million bags in less than 10 years. Some American companies have recently established canning facilities on the Continent. If the results there are as effective as in the United Kingdom, the long-term export outlook is good, especially for canning-type beans. Plan for 1964 The plan is to encourage and carry out exchanges of bean teams and increase the participation of the U.S. bean industry in market development work abroad. A British bean team is expected to visit the United States this summer. Also the U.S. industry is expected to participate in several trade fairs and trade centers abroad. Efforts will continue toward keeping the U.S. bean industry informed as to foreign market possibilities and competitive situations. World situation BEEF World beef production and consumption in 1962 continued to rise. Prevailing world prosperity and high returns to producers in most countries have been encouraging. Demand for meat in world markets is continuing to rise because of increases in population and consumer incomes. World cattle numbers reached a record high in early 1962, 2 percent higher than in 1961. Numbers were even higher in January 1963. U.S. cattle numbers reached 100 million in January 1962 for a new record and probably have exceeded this level in 1963. World production, consumption, and trade in beef is expected to rise in 1963. The United States maintained its position as the world's second largest importer of beef in 1962 but exports of livestock products were slightly lower than in 1961. 95910-63-pt. 3 -67 ·Short-term outlook U.S. cattle slaughter and beef production apparently reached new high records in 1962 and is expected to be slightly higher in 1963. Per capita consumption of beef reached a record high of 89 pounds per person and is also expected to go slightly higher in 1963. Cattle slaughter in 1962 exceeded 1961 by about 2 percent, however, total beef production for 1962 was only slightly higher than in 1961 due to lower dressed weights of cattle slaughtered. U.S. imports of beef and veal totaling around 1.4 billion pounds (carcass weight) in 1962 exceeded 1961 imports by a large margin and were the highest of record. Imports were equal to 9 percent of U.S. production in 1962 compared with 6 percent the previous year. U.S. beef exports dropped slightly from the preceding year. Long-term outlook World beef production and cattle numbers have steadily increased since the end of World War II. It is expected that these trends will continue, perhaps at a faster pace with present and future prospects for world prosperity. U.S. exports of beef byproducts-tallow, hides, and casings are not expected to be affected much by the formation of the European Common Market. These products will not be subject to variable import levies which will be in effect for carcass beef products, including canned and processed meats. U.S. beef imports probably will decline from current high levels as domestic production increases. Plans for fiscal year 1964 Competition surveys were completed for Ireland, United Kingdom, Germany, and France in fiscal year 1963. Surveys will be made on Argentina, Uruguay, Italy, Yugoslavia, Denmark, and the Netherlands during the current year. A leather promotional program in Japan is successfully underway. Further expansion in tallow promotion in Western Europe is being conducted with particular emphasis on use of tallow in livestock feeds. Plans are made to reduce and remove trade barriers for livestock, meats, and byproducts by all possible means, and to keep the U.S. cattle industry and other meat interests informed of present and future world competition, problems, and opportunities. World situation PORK World hog numbers apparently reached a new high in early 1963. The 483 million head on farms in January 1962 was 4 percent higher than in January 1961 and 40 percent above the 1951-55 average. The U.S. pig crop in 1962 rose to 94 million head, 1 percent above 1961 and 4 percent over the 1951-60 average. Nevertheless, U.S. imports of pork reached an alltime high of around 210 million pounds (carcass weight) in 1962, while exports accounted for around 63 million pounds. Canada received the largest portion of pork exports. Short-term outlook U.S. production and slaughter for 1963 should be considerably higher than in 1962, since a direct correlation exists between the size of the pig crops and slaughter. The U.S. fall pig crop was up 5 percent. Prices of hogs from late winter through the early summer probably will average considerably below 1961. World pork production is more than 40 percent above the 1951-55 average. World per capita pork consumption has risen considerably. U.S. consumption rose from 62.2 pounds per person in 1961 to 63 pounds in 1962 and may increase slightly in 1963. U.S. exports of pork in 1963 are expected to increase moderately; however, domestic demand for pork and lard will be the chief factor determining prices of hogs and pork. Long-term outlook The increase in world production, slaughter and per capita consumption reflects prosperity. U.S. gains in pork production have resulted primarily from abundant supplies of relatively cheap feed and relatively high prices for pork. U.S. pork production would increase materially if grain price supports were lowered and pork prices would fall to more competitive levels in world markets. The Common Market's self-sufficiency policy is expected to restrict and reduce imports of lard, variety meats, and fatback from the United States. Plans for fiscal year 1964 To continue to cooperate with industry and foreign governments in increasing dollar trade and in reducing barriers, real and artificial. To keep the U.S. industry informed on competitive problems, sales opportunities, and trade barriers in foreign markets. World situation LAMB AND MUTTON World sheep numbers continue to rise. The world total reached 990 million in January 1962, 1 percent higher than in 1961. U.S. sheep numbers totaled 31 million, a 2-percent drop from 1961. U.S. sheep numbers have dropped for the third consecutive year and apparently are the lowest for any year since at least 1867. U.S. lamb prices have recovered from their low levels of 1961. The average price received by farmers for lambs in 1962 was $17.70 per 100 pounds compared with $15.80 a year earlier. The 1962 average, however, was the lowest for any other year since 1946. Prices in December 1962 averaged $17.90 compared with $15.50 a year earlier. The December 1962 price averaged only 73 percent of parity. U.S. imports of lamb and mutton from Australia and New Zealand have increased sharply since 1957. Lamb imports from all countries in 1962 totaled about 13 million pounds compared with 10.9 million a year earlier and were equal to 1.8 percent of domestic lamb and yearling production. U.S. imports of mutton from all countries in 1962 totaled about 56 million pounds compared with 44.9 million in 1961. Most of the foreign mutton is used in production of frankfurters and other manufactured items and does not compete directly with lamb. Short-term outlook The annual U.S. decline in sheep numbers probably will be stopped in 1963. Slaughter will decline because of fewer lambs on feed and a smaller lamb crop. The outlook for lamb prices in the United States continues fairly good with relatively small supplies of lamb being produced domestically. The imports have not increased to such an extent as to be material price depressing influences. Long-term outlook U.S. sheep numbers on farms will remain relatively stable. High costs of production and relatively low returns to large Western producers offer little incentive, whereas smaller flocks in the East are increasing. In the larger producing countries, Australia and New Zealand, sheep production is more profitable than cattle and sheep numbers and production continues to increase. They will continue to be the largest exporters of lamb with most of their surplus moving to the United Kingdom as usual. Plans for fiscal year 1964 To keep U.S. sheep producers posted on foreign competition, imports, prices, and supplies. To continue trying to reduce and eliminate trade barriers against U.S. lamb and mutton products and to promote export sales of sheep and lambs for breeding. World situation LARD World lard production in 1962 is estimated to have reached 8,360 million pounds, 31⁄2 percent above the 8,080 million pounds produced in 1961. U.S. production dropped about 2 percent in 1962, but the drop was more than offset by gains in Europe and in the Soviet Union. U.S. output will probably rise in 1963 along with production in Europe and the U.S.S.R. World lard trade in 1962 rose from the 730 million pounds exported in 1961 largely because of increased exports from the United States and several Western European producers. The amount of lard entering world trade during 1962 remained considerably below the 1960 total when Cuba was still importing a large amount. Short-term outlook The United States will continue to be a surplus producer even though the domestic disappearance increases and the yield of lard per hog decreases. No sharp fluctuations in price are expected either in the United States or abroad The United Kingdom will probably take an even larger share of the total Us lard exported as European production rises and consumption generally declines Long-term outlook Prospects for U.S. lard exports are influenced to a great extent by United Kingdom efforts to enter the EEC and by the terms under which that country enters. The protectionist features of the EEC policy for pork and pork prodɔɔ may tend to reduce the United Kingdom market as the import levies and fees an applied, assuming that the United Kingdom does eventually enter the Com nity subject to the existing rules of the EEC. Plans for fiscal year 1964 To increase promotional activity in Western Europe, United Kingdom, and South American countries; to continue efforts to reduce or eliminate trade barriers; to search for new markets and to keep U.S. industry informed as to e petitive problems and opportunities in various foreign markets. Small qua ties of lard will be included in title I and title IV, Public Law 480 programs* in a few countries. World situation INEDIBLE TALLOW AND GREASES World production at 7.5 billion pounds in 1962 rose about 1 percent from 196 as increases in Europe and the Soviet Union offset a drop in the United States In 1963 U.S. production is expected to recover to a level above 1962. At the same time there will probably be additional increases in Europe and Russia. World exports totaled 2.5 billion pounds in 1962, more than 70 percent of which came from the United States. Most of the remainder came from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, with a small amount shipped from several nations of Western Europe. Short-term outlook U.S. supplies are expected to continue large with prices remaining steady at relatively low levels during the coming year. Exports in 1963 should remain a′′ or slightly above 1962, largely because of shipments under various Food for Peace programs in underdeveloped or developing nations. Shipments to Japan and Europe will continue to account for the majority of tallow exports for dollars. Long-term outlook The trend toward the use of synthetic detergents will undoubtedly conting in the world's most industrialized nations. Partially offsetting will be increased demand for soap in developing nations of Africa, Asia, and South America Additional amounts will be needed as the use of tallow in feed increases in Er rope. No problems are anticipated as a result of common agricultural policy of the EEC. Plans for fiscal year 1964 Increased promotional activity in Western Europe, United Kingdom, and South American countries. To continue efforts to reduce or eliminate trade 1a” riers; to promote U.S. tallow in the European market; to search for new markets and to keep U.S. industry informed as to competitive problems and opportunit. in various foreign markets. Specific market development projects are underway in Japan, Colombia, zrę Western Europe. These projects promote tallow and grease for soap, industria uses and for fat-in-livestock feeds. Tallow continues to be an important commodity in six countries under title I Public Law 480. Lesser amounts will enter several countries under title IV. Public Law 480. World situation WOOL World wool production in 1962-63 is estimated at 5.710 million pounds, down fractionally from 1961-62 but 25 percent above the 1951-55 average. There will be less wool in Australia due to reduced yields per sheep following wide spread drought. There will also be reduced output in Argentina and Africa, while increases are in prospect in both Uruguay and New Zealand. Mill activity in most of the world's major consuming countries was a te the previous year for the first 6 months of 1962, but fell slightly below for the third quarter. Prices for raw wool at the beginning of the season generally were |