20. Wheat pasture area inventories.-As a supplement to the wheat pasture reports for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, cattle inventory estimates for January 1, 1962, by classes for the aggregate wheat pasture area of these three States, were made and included, in the January 1, 1962, inventory report. Also, this report included for the first time separate estimates of sheep and lambs on feed on wheat pastures for western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. 21. Objective fruit counts and measurements.-In an effort to improve estimates and the methodology used, objective counts and measurements have been expanded to include, for the first time, almonds in California and sour cherries in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In California, objective counts and measurement of almonds were made during late April and early May 1962. The data will provide a base to be used in computing a ratio estimate for the 1963 crop. 22. Expanded coverage of milk sales and consumption data.—In May 1962. data on sales and per capita consumption of 12 fluid items were published for 79 marketing areas for the period 1950-59. The data for 1960 and 1961 were published in the May issue of the "Fluid Milk and Cream Report." Similar data for current years will be published annually in the May issue in the future. Estimates of per capita consumption for recent years were revised for some areas to bring them into line with population data from the 1960 census. The estimated population of the marketing areas for which 1961 sales data are available represented 65 percent of the nonfarm population of the United States. 23. Reports issued during calendar year 1962 by the Crop Reporting Board, by commodity groups— Type of reports: Cotton production__ Crop production, including prospective plantings, crop value, annual summaries, and seed crops_ 76 Fruits and vegetables-- Milk and dairy, including 204 issued from Chicago-- 243 Livestock and livestock products, including 13 from the western livestock office__. 72 Poultry and eggs, including 52 broiler and 52 turkey- 177 47 Total_ 709 STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND SERVICE Dr. TRELOGAN. Special surveys of market potentials for agricultural products are conducted to provide guidance for expansion of sales and distribution of available supplies. These surveys involve research on uses of, attitudes toward, and market preferences for foods, fibers, and byproducts with special attention given to those in abundant supply. In view of the Statistical Reporting Service's exceptional concern and proficiency with statistical handling and analysis, it has been assigned two other responsibilities pertaining to statistics throughout the Department. One includes coordination and improvement in the Department's statistical activities. This is implemented through the review and clearance of statistical forms and survey plans prior to their submission to the Bureau of the Budget in accordance with the Federal Reports Act, and also through the provision of consulting services to agencies confronted with statistical problems. The other responsibility involves management of the Washington Data Processing Center with large-scale computers and associated automatic dataprocessing equipment. The services of these facilities, which are needed for handling the large volume of data involved in erop and livestock estimating, are made available to the Washington offices of other agencies. (The following was submitted for the record :) STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND SERVICE Current activities and trends.-The two broad categories of statistical and research efforts under this activity play a significant role in the agency's and the Department's exercise of its responsibilities. These categories encompass: (1) close support and liaison activities for the improvement of the agency's longrange crop and livestock estimates for which the major portion of the resources are directed, and (2) certain review, coordination, clearance, and survey responsibilities for the Department. The first category includes research on the development of improved methods or techniques pertinent to the collection and analysis of crop and livestock data, as well as research leading toward more effective adaptation and utilization of automatic data processing in the development of these estimates. The Department's responsibilities referred to in the second category entails the review of all proposed statistical forms and survey plans requiring Bureau of the Budget clearance; coordination of all inter- and intra-departmental programs for the improvement of agricultural and related statistics. Under this activity, the agency also conducts special surveys, particularly with respect to opinions and atitudes relating to the marketing of agricultural products. Sample survey procedures in the Western States.-In order to sample efficiently for both crops and livestock, a delineation of land area according to broad classes of land use is being completed in Western States (Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming). There are large areas of noncultivated land which have no agricultural use other than grazing, and in such areas there is considerable variation in the grazing season. Intermixed with the noncultivated land are scattered areas or fields of cultivated land devoted to crops intended primarily for feeding. Base materials prepared in the State offices are being assembled into a set of sampling materials which will allow controls over sample allocation. This should materially increase sampling efficiency in this region. Automatic data processing.-Explorations of the importance of automatic data processing as a means of achieving greater accuracy, improved techniques, and more thorough analysis of data—all of which lead to a better product for the users of agricultural statistics—have been continued. These explorations have involved studies of typical applications, including costs of manual and automatic data processing systems. Also, valuable experience has been acquired from use of ADP for selected projects. Because the overall ADP field continues to expand rapidly, one phase of the agency's research-developmental type work must necessarily be devoted to keeping abreast of significant developments in this area. One aspect of this work has been directed toward gaining experience in processing statistical data on another government agency's larger and more modern electronic computer similar to equipment which the Statistical Reporting Service plans to acquire at some future date. In general, the studies made reaffirm that the capabilities of ADP provide a great potential for making significant improvements in the agency's crop and livestock estimates work. Selected examples of recent progress 1. Development of improved forecasts for the yield of irrigated cotton.-A Field forecasting model is being developed from studies in Arizona, New Mexico, and California. One of the principal problems centers around predicting the survival of young fruit on August 1 and September 1. The survival of young fruit present at any particular time depends to a large extent on the stage of development for the crop. Using weekly data available from these studies, an index of stage of development based on the relation of the mature fruit to total fruit has been devised which indicates a basic component to be used in the forecasting model. A second area of concern in these studies has been forecasting the boll weight from a small portion of the open bolls picked during the early part of the harvest season. Work to date indicates approximately 25 percent of the crop must be harvested before the early season boll weights can be helpful in forecasting the weight for the entire crop. 2. Corn. Considerable progress has been made in refining the procedures for forecasting the weight of grain per ear. The dry weight of a mature grain used in conjunction with moisture content as a measure of the state of development has provided satisfactory forecasts of grain weight under conditions of substantial year to year change. Forecasts of the number of ears to be formed have been improved by improving the definition of an ear of corn with grain. Computer programs have been written which convert survey data into forecasts and estimates of yield, and which, also, provide analyses needed for refining the relationships upon which the forecasts are based. 3. Winter wheat.-Forecasts of the number of wheat heads to be formed have been improved by increasing the precision of the counts of tillers, both living and dead. Forecasts of the weight of grain per head have also been improved. Spikelet counts made by field samplers have been graduated by counts made in a central laboratory. The number of spikelets present in very young heads has proved to be a good indicator of the final head weight at harvest. Procedures were developed for using the fraction of fields found to be harvested at the time of making a survey for providing sample estimates of acreages remaining for harvest. Laboratory procedures for measuring head length, counting spikelets, and weighing grain were simplified and should result in better laboratory work. Computer programs have been written for analyzing the data collected as well as for computing the forecasts. 4. Soybean yields in the North and South Central States.-Research studies were started in Mississippi and Arkansas as well as being continued in the North Central States. The fruiting characteristics and period of the soybean plant in Mississippi and Arkansas are sufficiently different that a new forecasting model will be required for August 1 forecasts. For the later months, differences are also expected. While the method of forecasting bean weight is not satisfactory, some refinements have been introduced into the handling of the sample pods submitted to the laboratories which will make direct bean weight comparisons easier. Some modifications of the field counting procedures were made to provide information on pods per plant with somewhat greater accuracy. Methods used in forecasting pod and bean numbers seem to be working well with additional refinements being introduced as the result of continued analysis over different crop situations. 5. Statistical clearance and consultation.-In serving as the designated Department's liaison between the Bureau of the Budget and all agencies of the Department on matters requiring Federal Reports Act clearance, 593 requests for clearance of forms and reporting requirements were received during the fiscal year 1962. Consultation with the Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other statistical agencies is being carried on to facilitate coordination and improvement of statistical programs. This work entailed the preparation of special reports concerning the Department's statistical activities, and participation in special seminars and workshops for the improvement of survey methods. 6. Consumer acceptance of canned precooked bulgur.-Because of the need for finding additional ways to increase wheat consumption, the market potential for a new canned precooked wheat, developed by the Department's Western Utilization Research Laboratory, was investigated. The test product was sold experimentally in one city; consumer purchases and reactions to the product were studied. Survey results indicate that homemakers who had used the product appeared satisfied with it. Restaurants in the area were also contacted to ascertain their acceptance of and attitudes toward the bulgur. Although its use was confined primarily to some of the larger restaurants or cafeterias and the total number of restaurants studied was small, among these users there appeared to be general satisfaction with the test product, especially when used as a filler or meat extender. 7. Frozen french-fried potatoes.-A report was published on an experiment conducted to determine household consumers' ratings of four different packs of frozen french-fried potatoes containing varying amounts of irregular pieces. This study was conducted at the request of the Fruit and Vegetable Division of the AMS to aid in the development of standards for grades. Results indicate that homemakers tended to rate a pack higher and to prefer it more as it be came more uniform in size and composition, and that it is probably somewhere between the 15- and 30-percent levels that the proportion of irregular pieces may become objectionable to consumers. 8. Consumer reaction to natural color and color-added oranges.-A study was completed which measured consumer discrimination and preferences for natural color and color-added oranges, as displayed in retail stores. Purchasers were questioned about their choice of oranges and the reasons behind it, and about their awareness of and attitudes toward color addition in oranges. A sizable majority of the shoppers interviewed said they would have bought the juicetype orange on the day of the interview regardless of whether it had color added or not. Those who thought adding color to oranges was a good idea or who felt it made no difference thought that the color gave the fruit a better appearance, had no effect on flavor, and believed that color would not be used if it were harmful to the consumer. 9. Fabrics and fibers for passenger cars.-A study was made, and a final report is in preparation, to determine the preferences of automobile manufacturers and their use of fibers and fabrics in the interior parts of regular and compact cars. This study was undertaken because the position of natural fibers for such uses has been seriously challenged by synthetic fibers, blends, and plastics; in addition, the upward trend in the production of compact cars has caused a shift in the volume and type of materials used in interiors. Preliminary data indicated that even though there were substantial shifts in specific end uses, cotton's percentage share of the materials used in passenger car interiors was about the same compared with results of a previous study done in 1955. BUDGET ESTIMATES Dr. TRELOGAN. The increase proposed in the 1964 budget for the Statistical Reporting Service is $1,547,000. This includes $1,045,000 to extend to additional States the long-range crop and livestock estimates improvement program; $80,000, to reimburse the Post Office Department for certain mail services previously handled on a nonreimbursable basis; $106,000 to develop an improved automatic data processing system; and a reduction of $8,000, which reflects estimated savings due to the installation of a centralized processing operation of personnel and payroll data. In addition, the budget request includes two estimates resulting from Public Law 87-793; the first to provide $75,000 for postal costs which are increased by this legislation, and the second in the amount of $249,000 to defray the additional pay costs also authorized by this legislation. The reason and purpose for each of the proposed increases are explained on pages 36 through 38 of the "Notes" which I would like to include in the record. (The pages referred to follow :) (1) A net increase of $1,223,000 consisting of: (a) An increase of $1,045,000 to extend to additional States the first phase of the long-range program for improvement of the crop and livestock estimates. Need for increase: Agriculture, as well as other segments of the economy, urgently need accurate and timely data on acres of crops planted and harvested, number of farms and related acreage, livestock numbers, and the prospective production of important commodities at monthly intervals as each growing season progresses. In addition to the farm and commercial interests served, the forecasts of these data are basic to effective formulation and administration of agricultural policy and programs of the Government. A broad program was originally outlined to the Congress in 1957 to strengthen these estimates. The program included: Project A, Structure for Providing Improved County, State, and National Data; Project C, Speedier Release and Distribution of Reports; and Within the overall long-range plan to improve these data, for which there continues to be increasing demands from both private and governmental interests, the first project (A) of this long-range plan is basic in that it encompasses more precise data assembled through the 43 State offices covering all 50 States. The additional funds appropriated from time to time since 1957 have been used to place more and more States under this phase of the program. The additional funds provided for 1963 enabled placing project A in full operation in 4 additional States, and on a pilot basis in the 11 Western States. The increase now requested would permit further expansion to other States. The 1964 estimates also include $2,444 for mandatory reimbursement to the employees compensation funds for payments made from the fund to employees of this agency in fiscal year 1962. (An overall explanation of employees compensation fund payments is included in the preface to these explanatory notes in volume 1.) Plan of work: The increase proposed for 1964 would be used to place the 11 Western States, currently on a pilot basis, on a full operating basis. This would provide a full program of enumerative surveys of a scientific sample of farms in 35 States, and permit objective measurements for estimating yields of important commodities such as cotton, corn, and wheat. The increase would also permit placing 12 Northeastern States and Florida on a pilot basis, thus providing for the first time in the 48 contiguous States the implementation of project A on either a full operating or pilot basis. (b) An increase of $80,000 for reimbursement to the Post Office Department for certain mail surveys previously handled on a nonreimbursable basis. Need for increase: For many years the Post Office Department has cooperated without compensation in conducting livestock and crop acreage surveys through selected rural mail carriers' handling of mail survey schedules to and from farmers for ultimate consolidated delivery to the statisticians at the State level. The Post Office Department has advised that this free service can no longer be continued, and that the survey cards should be handled as regular mail for which reimbursement to that Department must be made in an amount equivalent to the estimated volume of mail which will now be required. The continued operation of the mail survey is essential to the crop and livestock estimates program. The proposed $80,000 increase would provide for handling of an estimated 3,200,000 pieces of mail at an average cost of 2% cents each. (c) An increase of $106,000 to develop automatic data processing systems related to improving the crop and livestock estimates program. Need for increase: The potential role that automatic data processing can play. in furtherance of the long-range program for improvement of the crop and livestock estimates, is significant. In recent years automatic data processing. which has progressively become a vital and commonplace tool throughout both Government and private industry, has served as a prerequisite to significant progress in many fields. To achieve the long-run potential in which the crop and livestock estimates program can be made more effective through related technological development of automatic data processing, it is necessary that a considerably expanded program of training and development be undertaken. While no immediate dollar savings can be attributed to such an endeavor, the ultimate long-range benefits are significant with respect to (1) more complete analysis of data to bring out facts that cannot be feasibly obtained by manual methods, and (2) the speed, efficiency, and accuracy of the entire collection and compilation process. Resources in particular need to be directed toward taking full advantage of the larger and more modern electronic equipment to which the agency plans to have access. To date the agency has been able to devote only limited resources to this research-developmental type work in data handling and processing for agricultural statistics. In order that this phase of the long-range program might be kept abreast of other expanding activities of the program. additional resources are urgently needed. Plan of work: The increase proposed would be used in determining the most efficient methods of applying machine techniques to the collection and processing of agricultural data, including: 1. Investigation of techniques for the rapid transmission of data between the field and Washington to reduce the time lapse between the collection of data and release of reports. 2. Ascertaining the most efficient way of transferring data from source documents to machine media. 3. Developing a set of codes that can be used generally in agriculture for the processing of statistical data. 4. Planning methods of storage and retrieval of statistical data. 5. Preparation of general computer programs, so that reprogramming will not be needed for each job. 6. Study of feasibility of shifting specific areas of work to automatic data processing. (d) A reduction of $8,000 to reflect estimated savings due to the installation of a centralized data processing operation (MODE) for payroll and personnel |