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*DIFFERENCE DUE TO NEW URBAN AND RURAL DEFINITION ADOPTED FOR USE IN 1950 CENSUS.

DATA FROM BUREAU OF THE CENSUS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1970

NEG. ERS 1335-62 (8) ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

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EXPORTS COMPARED WITH FARM SALES FOR CROPS AND WITH PRODUCTION FOR LARD AND TALLOW.
DATA ARE FOR FISCAL YEAR 1961-62.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

NEG ERS 1395-62 (8) ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

8. Record agricultural exports, 1961-62

A continuing analysis of the current status of and outlook for U.S. agricultural exports reveals that exports for the fiscal year that ended June 30 equaled $5.1 billion, 4 percent above the previous year's record of $4.9 billion. Volume was equal to the record in 1960-61. The value of agricultural exports that moved for dollars came to an estimated $3,5 billion, also the largest in history while the value of food for peace exports equaled an estimated $1.6 billion (fig. 11). Sales for dollars accounted for over half of the total gain in U.S. agricultural exports in 1961-62 compared with 1960-61. Most of the increase in total exports in 1961-62 over the previous year was brought about by wheat and feed grains, the leading U.S. farm surplus commodities.

The export record in fiscal year 1961-62 represents 15 percent of total cash receipts from farm marketings. The foreign market provided an outlet for over half of the wheat, rice, and dried peas produced; two-fifths of the tallow; and around a third of the tobacco, cotton, soybeans (including bean equivalent of oil), nonfat dry milk, and hides and skins (fig. 13).

Continued advances in economic activity in the industrialized countries of western Europe contributed most to the record level of exports in the past year. In addition, exports were encouraged by the vigorous market promotion program carried out jointly by USDA and industry groups, the redoubled efforts to negotiate favorable trade access terms, and competitive pricing of export commodities, in some cases through the use of export payments.

9. Long-term projections of foreign supply and demand by country and region Activity continues under this project. To assess future import opportunities for U.S. agricultural products, particularly in dollar markets, there are now in progress 15 country studies. Projections through 1975 are being made.

(a) Western Hemisphere.-Studies underway include the old West Indies Federation and British Guiana area, Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, and Mexico. Results of these studies are in much demand by Government agencies and private trade groups to guide activities relating to exports of U.S. agricultural products.

(b) Far East.-A study assessing the future import demand for agricultural products in Japan in view of long-term trends in demand and production has some important significance to U.S. farmers. Preliminary findings indicate that imports of feed grains will increase sharply, reflecting increased demand for livestock products in Japan. Soybeans can help increasingly to meet the growth in cake and meal consumption that is foreseen. Similar studies have been initiated in Pakistan, and completed for India and the Philippines.

(c) Western Europe.-Studies are being made in Spain, France, and the Netherlands. Studies completed for Italy and Austria are being edited for publication in 1963. The Italian analysis concludes Italy will require substantially enlarged imports of feed grains and will provide keener competition for U.S. fruits in western Europe.

(d) Africa and Middle East.-A study of the long-term projections of supply of and demand for agricultural commodities in Nigeria indicates that Nigeria's 1975 import demand for wheat should double that of 1960. The demand for milk (dried and/or canned) will expand more rapidly than that of any other agricultural commodity, at a rate which will double demand every 3–5 years. 10. Agricultural situation.

The annual "World Agricultural Situation Report" is scheduled for issuance in January 1963, and regional summaries in January and February for the Western Hemisphere, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Africa and Middle East, and the Far East. This project appraises the outlook for the demand, supply, and prices for farm products in the year ahead, and disseminates that information for government and public use on a continuing basis. The 1963 "World Agricultural Situation Report" shows total farm output again high, but per capita output up only slightly, while world export prices of primary food products rose slightly (fig. 14).

11. Agricultural and trade policies of foreign countries.

Governmental measures taken to protect agriculture and to support prices and incomes of agricultural producers in foreign countries are analyzed to inform public and private groups how these policies affect foreign competition with and demand for U.S. agricultural commodities. A comprehensive policy report on major producing countries will be issued in 1963. In addition, circulars will

cover the following subjects: The Latin American free trade area, the Central American free trade area, and the Alliance for Progress in the Western Hemisphere, implication of the European Common Market's agricultural policy and agricultural programs in Eastern Europe for U.S. agriculture.

(a) The European Economic Community's agricultural policy.-Continuing analysis of the Common Market's agricultural policy, which is both in process of development and implementation, is being carried on in order to assess its likely future impact on U.S. exports. Practically all of Western Europe is involved or may become involved in the Common Market. Of the 10 countries not already included in the Common Market, 4, chief of which is the United Kingdom, have applied for full membership, 5 for some form of association, and 1 is interested in a limited trade agreement. The work will be extended to additional members or associates as conditions indicate.

(b) U.S.S.R. and other Eastern Europe.-Reviews completed in fiscal year 1963 of agricultural production policies and trade in the Communist area are highly significant to U.S. agriculture, our foreign economic policy, and agriculture generally in the free world.

A report on the agricultural situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, completed in fiscal year 1963, shows output declined or fell short of the high official goals in the Soviet Union and most other Eastern European countries. Comparisons made of "The Agricultural Picture in the U.S.S.R. and U.S.A." strikingly contrasts behavior of the agricultural sectors of the Soviet and United States economies; namely, stagnation in agricultural production and shortages of food, particularly of animal products in the Soviet Union and a continuing high level of agricultural production and abundance of food in the United States.

FIGURE 14

WORLD: Total Farm Output Again High;
Per Capita Output Up Slightly

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FOR MOST CROPS, HARVESTS GATHERED MAINLY BETWEEN JULY 1 OF YEAR SHOWN AND JUNE OF FOLLOWING YEAR.

- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

NEG. ERS 685-62 (11) ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

"A Survey of Czechoslovakian Agriculture" reviews and analyzes agricultural production, utilization of farm products, agricultural trade and policies since World War II with some comparisons with the prewar situation. Czechoslovak agriculture, in spite of increased mechanization, fertilization, and other capital investments, remained in 1961 at a level approximately 90 percent of prewar !roduction. The forced collectivization of agriculture, virtually completed in 1961, has aggravated the shortage of farm labor and managers resulting in

sporadic shortages of agricultural products and the necessity for increased imports of farm products, mainly from the Soviet Union.

Principal projects in progress on the competitive position of Soviet and other Eastern European agriculture include (1) Analysis of the recent increase of livestock prices in the Soviet Union; (2) A review of Soviet foreign trade in agricultural products; (3) An analysis of manpower resources in Soviet agriculture; (4) An analysis of the grain and livestock situation in the Danubian Basin.

12. Effects of shifts in agricultural production and trade

This project is designed to analyze and interpret opportunities and problems for U.S. agriculture in shifts in foreign markets and competitor countries. Such shifts are important to U.S. exporters.

Agricultural diversification in Thailand.-Beside continuing to supply a large share of world rice exports, Thailand's agriculture is becoming increasingly diversified and commercialized. This points to higher farm incomes, increased foreign exchange earnings, and larger and more diversified imports by Thailand, a country with nearly 30 million people.

Africa.-Imports of agricultural commodities into Africa are record high and are increasing. Egypt, for example, is providing a growing market for U.S. farm exports and is now our most important market in Africa and the Middle East. A report, "The Agricultural Economy of Egypt" describes and analyzes conditions limiting productivity and those factors contributing to the changes in the supply and demand for agricultural commodities. The material presented in this report provides an important basis for implementing practical market development activities in Egypt which will lead to further increases in exports of agricultural commodities to that country.

Caribbean areas.-Findings of on-the-spot and other research indicate increasingly important markets can be developed in this region for a diversity of agricultural products. U.S. agricultural exports to Jamaica, Trinidad, Bermuda, Bahamas, and Caribbean areas associated with European nations totaled $56.5 million in 1961, ranking fifth as a U.S. agricultural export market in the Western Hemisphere. The leading exports were wheat, wheat flour, meat and meat products, feedstuffs and processed foods.

13. World food and agricultural statistics by country and region

This is a continuing activity involving cooperation with statisticians and commodity specialists of Foreign Agricultural Service, as well as consultant and correspondence with agricultural attachés, market research specialists, and international organizations to clarify questions and improve the basic data.

(a) Production indexes.-This project concerns the annual measurement of changes in agricultural production for the world and 100 individual countries compared to a base period, thus providing important quantitative summaries of the output of foreign agriculture. The work on 1962 indexes indicates that the world will have a slightly larger per capita supply of food in 1963 than in previous years.

(b) Food balances.-This project covers the continuing appraisal of the food situation in foreign countries and preparation at regular intervals of food balances indicating food supplies, by commodities, and their utilization. Food balances for about 40 countries are planned for reissuance in calendar year 1963 and an equal number in early 1964. These are done for a 3-year period to minimize the statistical effect of abnormal weather or economic conditions in a given year. The series beginning in fiscal year 1964 will be for the period 1959-61, and will furnish basic data for the next issue of the World Food Budget.

(c) Foreign market research.-This phase of the research in 1963 is planned with a view to improving through country market research projects the coverage and quality of agricultural statistics and other data for selected countries in southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the making of these surveys cooperation of the local responsible research authorities is sought to insure receipt on a continuing basis of supply-utilization data from these areas where such data previously had been inadequate.

Mr. KOFFSKY. I would say further that the outlook statement presented by Dr. Cochrane before this committee on February 21 is a good illustration of the kind of materials that our outlook specialists develop.

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