$50

LIQUID BOOSTER SHUTTLE

EFFECT ON ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN
PAYLOAD REFURBISHMENT COST⚫

(Billions-1970 Dollars)

Figure 12

30000000

CYCLE
COSTS

$20

$17.2

-$16.3–1 — |– $16.0---$15.6---$16.0-|-1-$16.4.

$16.9 I

(Change In Estimated Payload Refurbishment Cost)

ALL OTHER FACTORS REMAIN CONSTANT

** "ECONOMICALLY JUSTIFIED AS DEFINED ON PAGE 17

CHAPTER 9

RANGE OF CONTRACTOR ESTIMATES

During the phase B extension studies, NASA directed the hardware contractors to study configurations of the space shuttle other than the two-stage fully reusable configuration. These contractors developed designs and estimated the costs to develop, procure, and operate each of the various shuttle configurations. In most cases these estimates were incorporated in Mathematica's analysis and published in the January 31, 1972, report.

Generally each contractor established a unique design for each shuttle configuration considered. The uniqueness of the designs stemmed from different approaches to various design problems. The different approaches, in turn, reflected the data base available to the contractor, as well as the unique backgrounds, experiences, philosophies, and judgments of the contractor's design and management personnel. For similar reasons, different contractors produced different cost estimates for the same shuttle configuration.

Our review of these contractors' report's showed that many of the differences in estimates exceeded $1 billion. In reviewing the size of these differences, we assessed the significance of the ranges of contractor-based estimates to the economic justification of the shuttle. In assessing the estimates we used the high, low, and representative total space program cost estimates for the two configurations described in chapter 3--the solid booster shuttle and the liquid booster shuttle--that Mathematica furnished to us at our request.

The results of our assessment for the solid booster shuttle and the liquid booster shuttle are shown in figures 13 and 14, respectively. The solid booster shuttle would remain economically justified even if the high contractor estimate proves to be the most accurate. When the total space program cost for the liquid booster shuttle in discounted 1970 dollars is compared with the costs for the current expendable and new expendable systems in discounted

dollars, the shuttle is not economically justified if the high contractor estimate proves to be the most accurate.

It should be noted that, because of time limitations, our review was confined to the estimates submitted by the contractors. Each contractor very likely developed several estimates in arriving at the one submitted to NASA. Consequently the high contractor estimate furnished to us by Mathematica was not necessarily the highest estimate of the contractors.

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Low
Estimate

Space Shuttle*

High
Estimate *