TABLE 2.-Total NASA requirements for scientists and engineers 1 Net increases Net increases in NASA in national quirements requirements supply over 1 Contractor scientists and engineers include classes of positions comparable to those used within NASA. 2 Estimated. (All estimates have been rounded and therefore are not additive.) 3 NASA's program does not use up the net increase in supply to the extent these 2 columns might indicate as decreases in other aerospace business and other factors allow NASA contractors to absorb some workload without an equivalent net addition in scientists and engineers. NASA'S REQUIREMENTS COMPARED TO NATIONAL REQUIREMENTS Total NASA requirements for scientists and engineers are set forth in table 2 above. Table 3 expresses these requirements as a percent of total national requirements. In summary this table shows that (1) On January 1, 1960, the total NASA program employed less than 1 percent of the Nation's estimated 1.2 million scientists and engineers. (2) NASA's total requirements are estimated to increase to 4.3 percent of total national requirements of 1.5 million by January 1, 1964. TABLE 3.-Total NASA requirements compared to national requirements for scientists and engineers 1 The data on national requirements are from preliminary estimates prepared by the Department of Labor, published in "The Manpower Report of the President," March 1963, pp. 100 and 125, as follows: This table results from a linear interpolation between the key dates of 1960 and 1970. 2 NASA estimated requirements are from table 2. 335,000 580,000 850,000 1,375,000 1, 185, 000 1,955, 000 Estimates soon to be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, place the 1970 total supply of scientists and engineers at about 1,700,000. Assuming for planning purposes that the NASA program will require some 90,000 to 100,000 scientists and engineers by 1970, the NASA requirements at their highest during the rest of the decade will not exceed 6.6 percent of the estimated total national supply of scientists and engineers. (a) The aerospace industry's ability to absorb NASA work NASA has made a limited survey of its largest R. & D. contractors to collect data on the number of scientists and engineers working on NASA contracts as well as the expenditures on these contracts. This survey provided an opportunity to determine the relative increases in scientists and engineers in these particular companies which were occurring as a result of NASA work. Not all the companies were able to provide data for each year. The number of companies represented in any year therefore varies. These data show that during the calendar year 1961 NASA placed an increased demand on 9 companies equivalent to 3,479 scientists and engineers. During the same year, these companies increased their total number of scientists and engineers by 4,205. There may have been some absorption of NASA work without equivalent increases in the number of scientists and engineers, but it was not revealed by this gross data. In calendar year 1962, NASA placed an increased demand on 11 companies equivalent to 8,352 scientists and engineers. These companies increased their total number of scientists and engineers by 7,708. Therefore, it appears reasonable to assume an absorption rate of approximately 8 percent for these 11 companies treated as a group. In calendar year 1963, the increase occasioned by NASA work was estimated at 4,005 scientists and engineers among 7 companies. However, these companies indicated they increased their scientific and engineering staffs by 2,899. Thus in 1963, the data indicate approximately a 28-percent absorption factor for NASA work without equivalent increases in scientific and engineering manpower. These limited analyses therefore indicate that the aerospace industry has some ability to place scientists and engineers on new NASA work without a proportional increase in staff. This ability seems to be increasing as aerospace companies move from conceptual and preliminary design stages of the new weapons systems to the production of these systems. (b) Upgrading as a source of supply The aerospace industry has higher than average proportions of nondegree and, apparently, even noncollege trained engineers and scientists. The Stanford Research Institute, in a 1963 study titled, "The Industry-Government Aerospace Relationships" (vol. II, p. 260), reports that 35.1 percent of those classified as professional engineers and scientists in one major aerospace company held no degree, and 11.8 percent had no college training whatsoever. A study of 14 aircraft and parts companies sponsored by the Engineering Manpower Commission found that 24.6 percent of the engineers employed in these companies were nondegree. In summary, a considerable percentage of the scientists and engineers in industry comes from internal development of nondegree holders. This is often little understood as a source of supply of scientists and engineers. (c) The general trend in the supply of engineers The 1963 Manpower Report of the President presents data on the 1950 and 1960 supply of engineers (p. 202). Between 1950 and 1960 the total supply of engineers rose from 526,179 to 860,949, an increase of 63.6 percent. If it is assumed that the same rate of growth will be achieved between 1960 and 1970, the supply of engineers in 1970 will be 1,408,603. This figure is almost the same as the forecasted requirement for engineers of 1,375,000 set forth on page 125 of the Manpower Report of the President. SOURCES OF NASA SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS During the 15-month period between July 1, 1961, and September 30, 1962, NASA recruited 3,710 scientists and engineers. Detailed questionnaires were sent to all the 3,710 scientists and engineers recruited. Complete information was obtained on 3,448 of these scientists and engineers-93 percent of the total group. In summary form these findings are presented below. (a) Source by type of organization The following table (table 4) shows that 1. Sixty-six percent of the NASA scientists and engineers came from industry or the Federal Government and that the 66 percent is equally divided between Government and industry-33.1 and 32.4 percent, respectively. 2. Only 30 of the 3,448 scientists and engineers recruited were teaching professors at universities immediately prior to their employment by NASA. 3. Approximately one-quarter of the scientist and engineer recruits were new college graduates. TABLE 4.-Type of organization where previously employed or enrolled Table 5, entitled "College and University Sources of Recruitment" shows that 1. Seventeen schools accounted for 33 percent of the college and university recruits, while 64 percent came from 203 other schools-with none of the 203 contributing more than 10 new NASA employees. 2. The schools from which NASA drew a significant number of recruits— 10 or more-are largely located near NASA centers and many of these same schools have cooperative training agreements with the NASA centers. Co-op schools-Those colleges and universities with which NASA has formal cooperative training agreements. (c) Industry sources Table 6, entitled "Industry Sources of Recruitment" shows that 1. Approximately 43 percent of the industry scientific and engineering recruits came from 10 companies and that the remaining 57 percent came from some 275 other industrial firms. 2. In only 3 cases did more than 50 employees come from the same company. In each of these three cases the companies were experiencing work cutbacks during the period most of the NASA recruits were employed. Industrial firm: TABLE 6.-Industry source of recruitment General Dynamics Corp. General Electric Co-_ Martin-Marietta Corp-- Thompson Ramo Wooldridge, Inc. A.T. & T-- Westinghouse Electric Corp‒‒‒ Lockheed Aircraft Corp-- North American Aviation, Inc----. Subtotal (10 industrial firms) (42.6 percent of total). 275 other industrial firms (57.4 percent of total) Total____. CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF MANPOWER RESOURCES (a) Programs within NASA Number 117 71 60 40 38 37 33 32 26 21 475 641 1, 116 Much has been written and spoken recently about the problem of technical obsolescence and the need for continuing training for engineers and scientists. In a recent article, Dr. J. R. Killian, chairman of MIT, stated, "It is likely that thousands of engineers in industry are working with reduced effectiveness, or are in danger of being shunted aside by progress because their knowledge and skills are obsolescent or because they have not had an opportunity to enhance or update their abilities by acquiring new skills and knowledge." Since its inception, NASA has recognized this problem of technical obsolescence. In fact, NASA has acted to prevent obsolescence from occurring. Its staff development concepts are based on the belief that scientists and engineers associated with the newly emerging disciplines of the aerospace sciences require continuous, lifetime retraining in order to maintain their optimum effectiveness. NASA relies heavily on the university community for advice and assistance in carrying out its staff development program. This relationship is not a oneway flow from the universities to the agency. NASA scientists and engineers serve as part-time professors in graduate schools, thus bringing to university campuses the most current technical and scientific knowledge resulting from space science and engineering. NASA management attempts to build an attitude toward work-study which will become a way of life for the scientist and engineer. Cooperative work-study arrangements with universities for undergraduates represents one effective method of accomplishing this at the undergraduate level. NASA has such cooperative agreements with over 25 colleges and universities in the United States. It is estimated that 750 NASA employees are participating in this program during this fiscal year. This compares with 500 in fiscal year 1962. Dr. Killian recommends that "there is a quick way to increase our manpower supply and improve our use of talent: Give these seasoned engineers an opportunity through specially tailored educational programs, to update their knowledge." NASA's practice is to tailor a special work-study program for each scientist and engineer who joins the staff in order to keep him at the forefront of developing technologies and prevent technical obsolescence. The young engineer and scientist enters into an internship or advanced study program, during which he takes high-level courses conducted by senior staff members, has assigned readings, and carries out carefully selected work assignments. It is estimated that about 500 NASA employees will participate in various elements of advanced study programs during this fiscal year. The work-study concept is continued for the seasoned, experienced staff members through NASA's graduate study program. This program is conducted in close association with the graduate departments of universities and colleges throughout the country. In some instances the universities have established off-campus centers on the NASA installation. These centers are administered jointly by the universities and the agency and offer graduate courses. A considerable number of professors for these courses are outstanding NASA scientists and engineers who teach after hours. A limited number of NASA scientists and engineers attend universities away from the NASA center which offer the best curriculum in their particular field 26-460-64- -10 of research. It is estimated that 1,500 NASA employees will participate in various elements of graduate study programs during this fiscal year. This compares with 1,200 in fiscal year 1962. Another method of developing the scientific and engineering manpower resources is to encourage and support attendance at short, concentrated courses sponsored by colleges, universities, and professional societies. These courses are geared to the specific needs of experienced engineers and scientists and are usually 2 weeks in length. To assure that necessary courses are offered, NASA identifies its needs and makes these known to the universities. It is estimated that about 1,700 NASA employees will participate in short, concentrated courses during this fiscal year. We believe that NASA's development program for scientists and engineers reflects recognition of the hazards of technical obsolescence which have led Mr. A. C. Monteith of Westinghouse to observe that the half-life of an engineer is now about 10 years. (b) NASA's university training grants The President's Science Advisory Committee has said "we should and could increase the number of Ph. D.'s each year in engineering, mathematics, and physical sciences to reach 7,500 in 1970, the number of masters or equivalent to 30,000. This annual production of 37,500 advanced degrees by 1970 should be compared with 15,000 in 1960, 11,000 in 1950." With this problem in mind, NASA has embarked on a program of lending positive assistance to the universities in increasing the future supply of highly trained scientists and engineers. NASA sponsors a predoctoral training program with the objective of assisting in the graduation of 1,000 Ph. D.'s a year. In this program NASA now supports predoctoral training programs at 88 separate schools. The purpose of these grants is to help achieve the long-range objectives of the national space program and meet the Nation's future needs for highly trained scientists and engineers. These skills are in supply today and will be needed in increasing numbers over the next decade. The institutions were selected not only because they have doctoral programs in space-related science and engineering, but also because of their willingness to undertake strengthening of their programs in these areas. NASA awards training grants to institutions rather than to individual scholars. The institution then selects the individual scholars, using its own standards. This program began in 1962 with grants to 10 universities for support of 100 graduate students. In fiscal year 1963, NASA has provided for 786 new trainees. Present plans call for addition of some 1,250 new trainees in the fall of 1964. The President's Science Advisory Committee has called for an increase of 4,100 in the annual graduation of Ph. D.'s from 3,400 in 1962 to 7,500 by 1975. The NASA program will provide support for about a quarter of this increase. This goal is predicated principally upon the fact that NASA's current annual budget is approximately one-fourth of the Federal Government's research and development budget. IMPACT OF NASA'S MANPOWER NEEDS ON THE NONAEROSPACE SECTORS OF THE NATION Statements have been made that the space program has had significant adverse effects on privately financed research and development, retarding innovation in consumer products, harming the consumer sections of the economy, and hiring professors away from universities. NASA's manpower studies and surveys have not found verification of these fears as shown in the following findings: NASA's program is not using a substantial percentage of the Nation's scientists and engineers. The relative magnitude of the NASA demand upon the total national supply of scientists and engineers during the rest of the decade is indicated by the 6.6 percent maximum requirement set forth earlier in this presentation. A portion of the increase in scientific and engineering manpower being assigned to new NASA work in the industry is being met without a proportional increase in staff. There is evidence that this trend is rising. The research and development scientists and engineers used on NASA's programs are about a third less than usually estimated, since over one-third of NASA's expenditures and effort are for work or products not requiring research and development scientists and engineers. Under the planning assumptions previously cited concerning future NASA expenditures and manpower, less than 12 |