Water-Related Technologies for Sustaining Agriculture in U.S. Arid and Semiarid Lands.... Technologies for Sustaining Tropical Forest Resources. Orange Protocol.... Strategies for Medical Technology Assessment. Medical Technology and the Handicapped.. Health and Safety Control Technologies in the Workplace.... 34 Societal Impact of National Information Systems... High-Level Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal. Space Policy and Applications...... The Impact of Advanced Air Transport Technology Assessments in Progress as of October 1, 1981 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Industrial Energy Conservation This project is designed to examine four American industries (pulp and paper, steel, petroleum refining, and organic chemical production) for their potential to use energy more efficiently, and to predict the impact of selected legislative options on energy use and efficiency within those industries. OTA will examine the available technologies designed to improve energy efficiency, as well as the barriers to implementation of such technologies. The legislative options to be examined range from such tax policy changes as accelerated depreciation to institutional changes in capital financing methods. The effects of each option will be evaluated through a series of case studies in which corporation executives, consultants, and computer modeling techniques are used to forecast the impacts of possible congressional action. Options will also be examined at the industry, industrial sector, and national energy use and economic levels using a similar series of modeling, management, and consultant evaluations. Delivery date: Summer 1982 Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce; Senate Committee on Finance Synthetic Fuels for Transportation This study assesses and compares two technical approaches to reducing this Nation's oil imports over the next few decades. The two technologies are a synthetic transportation fuel industry and increased automobile fuel efficiency beyond the 1985 standards. The issue is how best to balance these approaches so that the most effective and economic path to reduced dependency on imported oil is taken. OTA will review the technical, economic, environmental, and social features of the major synthetic fuels and automotive technology (increased automobile fuel efficiency and electric vehicles) and will include information from reports by the Congressional Research Service, the Congressional Budget Office, and OTA studies on oil shale and biomass. In addition, potential oil savings through increased efficiency and fuel-switching in stationary uses of oil will be briefly described. Synthetic fuels and increased automobile fuel efficiency will then be compared using a variety of criteria, including consumer and investment costs, time frame for deployment, environmental impacts, and macroeconomic impacts. Selected issues related to these subjects will be discussed and policy options developed. Delivery date: Early 1982 Requester: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Dispersed Electric Energy Generation Systems The possibility of using solar energy in all its direct and indirect forms and the rapidly escalating economic and environmental costs of large energy facilities have stimulated considerable interest in small, dispersed energy systems. In particular, problems faced by the electric utility industry--such as rapidly rising capital costs, long lead times for plant construction, and difficulty in finding suitable sites--make dispersed energy systems attractive. They would not be without problems, however, and it is essential to determine the kinds and extent of benefits and costs such systems would entail if effective policy is to be made about dispersed energy. This study will examine the role that small energy conversion equipment could play in meeting the country's need for electric energy. It will review the economic, environmental, social, and institutional consequences of dispersed electric systems and their effect on the electric utility industry. Finally, it will analyze policy options that Congress may wish to consider in addressing the issues about the development of such systems. The study will examine the technical features of dispersed systems that use a variety of small electric-generating equipment. It will then analyze the economic and technical effects of such systems on utilities using models developed for the OTA onsite solar study. Concurrently, evaluation of changes in utility structure will be carried out using decision models similar to those used by utilities. Finally, a series of issues about the effects on society (e.g., employment, risks) as a consequence of dispersed systems will be examined. This will include public perception of small-scale, onsite energy facilities. Delivery date: Late 1981 Requester: House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Strategic Technologies for an Oil Disruption Over the next decade, there is a high probability that the Nation will experience a disruption in imported oil on a level that will exceed the capabilities of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and seriously affect the economy. This assessment examines the opportunities and problems that characterize various technical responses which could supplement the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to meet such an interruption. The objective is to determine available resources that might be expanded, the technical limitations for fuel substitution and switching, the physical constraints to stockpiling resources, and the impacts of accelerating the use of these technologies. Technologies to be considered include enhanced oil recovery, adapting industrial boilers to dual-fuel capacity, biomass production, high-voltage transmission, hydro, wind, direct solar, vehicle retrofits, photovoltaics, retrofitting building envelopes and heating/cooling systems, retrofitting vehicles to improve mileage efficiency, and switching capacity of petroleum refineries. The study will be done at national and regional levels. OTA The assessment will be completed in two phases. Phase I will draw upon staff resources to collect data on the technical capabilities and constraints of the intervention technologies and will result in a summary document on the potential of the technologies to alleviate the effects of various levels of oil disruption. A workshop will be held to review the data, and a technical memorandum will be published. In Phase II, OTA will examine the most promising technologies in greater detail, including such complicated questions as refinery switching capacity, burner substitution logistics, and electrical grid capacity and requirements. Delivery date: Early 1982, Technical Memorandum Requesters: Late 1982, Full Report Senate Committees: Governmental Affairs; Foreign Relations Potential U.S. Natural Gas Availability In the past few years the outlook about the potential for natural gas production in the lower 48 states has changed. Recent optimistic projections by some groups have stimulated efforts to revise current natural gas policy so that natural gas can play a bigger role in reducing this country's oil imports. However, the considerable uncertainty that remains about how much we can rely on natural gas is tempering this optimism. This assessment is designed to help determine domestic (lower 48 states) onshore natural gas availability over the next few decades and to help understand the factors that affect this availability. The OTA assessment will: (a) analyze the key technical and physical parameters that determine the resource base, production rates, and costs of all categories of belowground natural gas, (b) critically review current estimates of the resource base, estimate the potential production rates of natural gas, and analyze the uncertainties in these estimates, (c) assess future technology trends, research and development needs that may accelerate these trends, and the way in which new technology may affect production costs and quantity, and (d) analyze the institutional and policy issues appropriate for a Federal role in dealing with barriers to production. Delivery date: Summer 1982, Interim Report Requesters: Spring 1983, Final Report House Committee on Energy and Commerce Nonnuclear Industrial Hazardous Waste Many nonnuclear industrial hazardous wastes must be stored or disposed of with great care or they may constitute a threat to health and the environment. Information on the nature and magnitude of the hazardous waste disposal and abandoned site problems will be reviewed. The reliability and efficacy of present containment, abatement, and disposal measures will be assessed. This information, coupled with criteria and techniques to judge relative health and environmental hazards of a given waste, will assist in identifying those wastes that could be reduced at the source--by modifications in process technologies, by recycling, or by an end-use substitution. Approaches for reducing hazardous waste generation with minimal undesirable economic effects on domestic industry will be identified. This assessment has four objectives: 1) to assess criteria for defining hazardous waste and for judging the relative health and environmental hazards of a given waste; 2) to evaluate technologies for cleaning up present waste disposal sites that are hazardous to health and the environment; 3) to assess technologies and approaches for the safe storage or disposal of hazardous waste being presently generated; and 4) to assess technologies and approaches for reducing the volume of hazardous waste. The possible economic impacts on domestic industry of various approaches will be evaluated. The project will focus initially on understanding the adverse consequences of present disposal strategies and techniques, and next on ways of economically reducing generation of industrial hazardous waste. Alternative options will be developed to cope with hazardous waste disposal in the short run and hazardous waste generation in the long run. Delivery date: November 1981, Technical Memorandum on Degree of Summer 1982, Full Report Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Wood: the Material, the Resource Although the United States imports nearly 30 percent of its softwood lumber, approximately half of its wood pulp, and significant quantities of plywood, forest industry and Government experts state that with new technologies for improved forestry practices, better wood utilization, and new product development, the United States could become at least independent of wood imports and possibly a net exporter of wood. New technologies for the use of wood, a renewable resource, may also hold promise as a substitute for nonrenewable energy and materials resources in some applications. (4) This assessment has six objectives: (1) explore the properties, uses, and technologies for using wood as a material and its potential for substituting for nonrenewable materials; (2) assess the future demand and supply profiles of wood and identify future problems; (3) evaluate the capability of forest management technology to increase production; analyze the forest management policies on public lands in reference to wood production and other forest uses; (5) assess the national technology for wood and forestry R&D; and (6) review public policies that affect forest production and the use of wood as a material and identify policy options for dealing with future problems. 28 |