The Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy has identified the issue of "undocumented/illegal migration" as the "most pressing" it considered during its deliberations, and concluded that most citizens believe such migration must be stopped. The Select Commission has therefore proposed, in broad and unspecific terms, (1) increased enforcement of existing labor laws; (2) increased enforcement of existing immigration laws; and (3) most significantly, a new statute making it illegal for an employer to hire an undocumented alien (generally referred to as "employer sanctions" legislation). These employer sanctions are to be accompanied by an unspecified system of national identification for employment purposes. After careful consideration, we have concluded that the Select Commission's recommendations fail to address critical questions about the likely cost and the likely effectiveness of a scheme which emphasizes regulation of individual employment transactions rather than a systematic attack on the social and economic determinants of migration: --With respect to costs, we believe that -2 --With respect to effectiveness, there is no tailored deterrent to it may be devised. In sum, there must be fuller evaluation of the relative effectiveness and the relative costs, both social and financial, of immigration enforcement, of employer sanctions and of enforcement of labor laws. On the present record, the increased enforcement of labor laws is the only one of the Commission's recommendations that promises to be effective and to avoid endangering important social values. While increased enforcement of labor laws will not solve all the social problems which illegal immigration gives rise to, it may be more effective and have a more central role to play than the Select Commission seems to have appreciated. Indeed, there is little indication of efforts by the Commission and its staff to establish precisely how effective an instrument of policy this might be. Since, as is argued below, employer sanctions legislation is likely to be ineffective and to impose heavy social and financial costs, both the enforcement of labor laws and the re-evaluation of foreign aid and development policies must be more fully explored as policy options. fuller and better-informed consideration of illegal immigration and its causes and effects, so that effective and acceptable alternatives may be devised to accompany labor law enforcement and international initiatives in a comprehensive approach. This exploration must take place alongside a -3 A. Will The Commission's Recommendations Be Effective? (1) Do the Recommendations Adequately The Commission has failed to specify in detail what it considers to be "the problem" associated with undocumented immigration. While the Commission's Final Report lists a series of problems which may be associated with undocumented migration, such as the impact on social services, job displacement, wage depression, and the potentially adverse effects on U.S. society of an exploitable underclass of persons fearing apprehension, it fails to state precisely which of these problems its recommendations are intended to resolve. Without a clearer sense of what the various aspects of the problem are, it is impossible to think about what types of measures will effectively meet it. (a) Employment and Wages While the Commission correctly discounts the impact of undocumented immigration on social service costs, it recognizes that there are two other types of possible negative economic impact from undocumented immigration. One is direct displacement of legal workers. The other is the depression of wages by undocumented Indeed, research suggests a positive contribution by undocumented workers. See Los Angeles County Chief Administrative Officer, Tax Effort and Service Cost of Illegal Aliens, (March 1975); San Diego County Human Resources Agency, A Study of the Socio-Economic Impact of Illegal Aliens on the County of San Diego, (January 1977); D. North & M. Houston, The Characteristics and Role of Illegal Aliens: An Exploratory Study, Department of Labor. 4 workers who, for a variety of reasons, will arguably work for less. The Commission's treatment of these issues is superficial and inconclusive. Research in this area has not produced enough data .. to form the basis of a meaningful and informed judgment on whether undocumented workers displace American workers and, if so, in what sectors. 2/ The Commission concedes that economists specializing in these questions continue to disagree about whether illegal immigration causes either job-displacement or wage depression, or both. Without determining the costs, in this respect, of undocumented immigration, it is impossible to project whether any enforcement scheme is likely to be cost-effective. Particularly necessary to such a determination is information concerning the extent of such repercussions from illegal immigration. The most that the Commission can say is that some workers have been displaced and some wages depressed as a result of illegal immigration of workers. This is an extremely tentative foundation upon which to justify an expensive and intrusive enforcement scheme like employer sanctions. Furthermore, the type of enforcement schemes which are proposed must be shown to be precisely responsive to the specific economic problems created by undocumented immigration. Nowhere 2/ Supplemental statement of Commissioner Elizabeth Holtzman, Appendix B at 341. U.S. Immigration Policy and the National Interest, Final Report and Recommendations of the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy, March 1, 1981 (hereinafter cited as Final Report). 89-591 0-82--22 -5 has the Select Commission established, or even hypothesized, the relative importance of direct job displacement and wage depression. It has not inquired into what proportion of the undocumented population works under conditions and wages competitive with legal workers and what proportion works for less. It has instead devised a general enforcement package which is apparently intended to deal with both problems. The inadequacy of such an approach is readily apparent, since the wage depressing effect of illegal immigration suggests different solutions from those suggested by direct job displacement. The Commission proposes a heavy emphasis on employer sanctions and a subordinate emphasis on enforcement of labor laws. However, were it to be determined that a substantial proportion of the undocumented population is composed of aliens who are employed at less than minimum wage or in illegal working conditions, then it would be necessary to shift some emphasis to the enforcement of labor laws. This is because one more legal penalty, in the form of employer sanctions, in addition to those which a violator of labor laws already risks daily, will have an uncertain and incomplete effect. It will increase an employer's risk by an increment that will be balanced against calculations about the economic costs of compliance. The more vigorous enforcement of labor laws, exemplified in the Department of Labor's Employers of Undocumented Workers Program, will, however, be more precisely tailored to deterring the employment of undocumented workers under conditions and wages which have |