TABLE 25.-Preliminary estimate of prospective traffic on the Tombigbee-Tennessee waterway-tonnages and savings by commodities, as indicated from analysis of 1939 railroad waybills-Continued

83. Necessity for revisions in study based on 1939 traffic.-Because 1939 was more nearly "normal" than any more recent year, the analysis summarized in tables 24 and 25 has been taken as the foundation for an estimate of prospective traffic and savings on the TombigbeeTennessee waterway. The computed tonnages and savings shown in these tables, however, cannot be accepted as final, for several reasons:

(a) Between 1939 and 1945, traffic on waterway systems to be connected by the new project has increased by 121 percent, measured in ton-miles, while traffic on 10 railroads serving this area has increased by 119 percent. An analysis of traffic for 1944 would therefore show much higher prospective commerce for the new waterway than was derived from a study of 1939 traffic. While 1944 may have been abnormally high on account of the war, the long-term traffic trend was upward before the war. Furthermore, many of the wartime industries established since 1939 will probably continue in production after the war.

(b) Expansion of the Tennessee Valley Authority hydroelectric project since 1939 increases the probability of sustained industrial production after the war. (c) Completion of the 9-foot channel on the Tennessee River increases the opportunities for utilization of the proposed Tombigbee-Tennessee waterway by traffic from the Gulf which could not move profitably at rail rates, but can move at the lower costs provided by waterway. Such traffic would not appear at all in the 1939 waybills.

(d) On the other hand, completion of the Tennessee River navigation project opens southeastern markets to producers on the Ohio and upper Mississippi River systems, introducing competition that may reduce traffic from the Gulf area in some commodities.

(e) Completion of the Plantation and Southeastern pipe lines into the Tennessee Valley may permanently change the traffic pattern for petroleum products in the area to be served by the proposed Tombigbee-Tennessee waterway.

(f) The proportion of some commodities to total traffic, as shown by table 25, is somewhat different from that found on other southeastern waterways; for example, the estimated tonnage of lumber is relatively much higher than that found elsewhere, while sulfur, which furnishes important tonnages to nearby channels, is not found at all in the list of commodities available for the proposed waterway. A reexamination of prospective traffic by individual commodities was apparently needed.

(g) The proportion of rail-water tonnage predicted is also higher than is usually found on inland waterways. The validity of estimates of joint and combination movements therefore had to be rechecked.

(h) There is some prospective traffic for the proposed waterway, now moving by rail, but originating or terminating outside the three States analyzed in the waybill study. For example, there is considerable traffic in sulfur moving from Texas to Tennessee, and in phosphate rock from Florida to the upper Mississippi River Basin. Such tonnages were not included in the waybill studies.

84. Questionnaire study.-Questionnaires were prepared and sent to shippers and receivers of freight in the area adjacent or tributary to the waterway, the data to serve as a supplement to the information obtained from the waybill study. A mailing list of approximately 2,500 names was compiled of known major firms in the territory. To these firms was sent the questionnaire with a letter of explanation, a map of the project, and a form for reporting prospective tonnage. In a number of cases, this was supplemented by interviews and further correspondence with the firms. A total of 1,338 data sheets were returned, or 52.8 percent of the total number sent out. The returns were analyzed and doubtful tonnages, i. e., those concerning which there was any question as to whether they could move advantageously over the waterway, were eliminated. The various commodities were then classified in accordance with the Railway Accounting Officers' Association standard form and separated according to direction of movement. Rate factors were applied according to the same procedure used in the waybill study. These questionnaires were especially valuable in uncovering prospective movements from Texas and Florida, not indicated by the waybill analysis, and in showing developments since 1939 in new commodity movements.

85. Study of traffic trends by commodities.-For each of the 12 most important commodities now moving on the inland waterways of the Southeastern States, an analysis was made of traffic trends by rail and water. These trends, extended to 1950, were used as corrections of the traffic shown for 1939 by the waybill study. In most instances this process resulted in an increase of the estimated prospective tonnage, but in a few cases the result was a decrease. The tonnage estimates finally accepted as reasonably prospective for the proposed waterway were arrived at by applying the judgement of the Board to the figures derived from waybill survey, traffic canvass and trend charts, in the light of experience with other inland waterways.

86. Reduction in benefits.-The basic waybill analysis does not take into consideration the fact that some of the all-rail tonnage movements accepted as prospective could move now by existing waterways at rates somewhat lower than present rail rates. In many instances the evidence points to the inadequacy of the available savings to divert the tonnage from rail. The assumption originally made was that the Tombigbee-Tennessee waterway, by providing a quicker as well as a cheaper route, would attract tonnage which otherwise would continue to seek rail transportation, and that the project was therefore entitled to credit for the full spread between existing rail rates and prospective water rates. In the cases where existing water routes already offer substantial savings, doubt was thrown upon the estimated savings shown in tables 23 and 24. Constructed joint or combination rates via existing waterways, especially the Warrior and Mississippi Rivers, were therefore used as a test of the validity of the savings claimed for rail-barge, barge-rail, and rail-barge-rail movements via the proposed

Tombigbee-Tennessee waterway. This check resulted in substantial reductions in both tonnages and savings claimed.

87. Petroleum.-Statistics of the past 10 years show a marked increase in the use of inland waterways for the transportation of petroleum products. Investigation of the trend of shipments on the Mississippi River, the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and the two canalized streams which will be connected by the proposed TombigbeeTennessee waterway, the Tennessee River and the Warrior-Tombigbee waterway, indicate the importance of waterway transportation in moving petroleum in this part of the country. The increase in volume of products moved has been accompanied by an increase in the average length of haul. The latter characteristic is especially noticeable during the war years, but these performances, it is believed, furnish a guide for determining the prospects for movement over a new route in the same general area. The table below shows the tonnages of petroleum products moved annually on these streams from 1935 through 1943.

TABLE 26.-Barge-borne commerce in petroleum products on the Mississippi River Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, Tennessee River and Warrior-Tombigbee waterway, 1935-44.

88. The potentialities for traffic in petroleum products for the proposed waterway fall into two main categories, namely: a diversion of the tonnage presently moving upbound on the Mississippi River from below Baton Rouge and west of New Orleans to points on the Ohio, Illinois, and upper Mississippi Rivers; and, secondly, movements to points on or adjacent to the upper Tombigbee and Tennessee Rivers. The inclusion of the first category is accomplished merely by making reference to the diversion study as a whole, developed in paragraphs 63 through 72 and summarized in paragraph 73. It will be noted in paragraphs 68 and 73 that there was available for diversion to the Tombigbee-Tennessee route in 1944 approximately 3,000,000 tons of freight and that the net savings attainable by use of the new waterway are expected to average not less than $1,200,000 annually over the estimated 50-year life of the proposed improvement. Commerce in petroleum products accounts for the largest portion of the available tonnage and the attainable saving in transportation charges from this divertible traffic.

89. A second source of prospective petroleum tonnage consists of local movements to points in the upper Tombigbee and Tennessee Valleys. Although this area is not a heavily populated industrial region, it is, nevertheless, showing steady growth in industrial output and urban concentration. The Tennessee Valley, with which the proposed waterway will make a direct connection, has already become an important industrial area. Consumption of petroleum products in Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee has been increasing steadily for a number of years. The table below shows consumption in these three States, as measured by sales within the States, from 1929, or the earliest year thereafter for which data are available, through 1943.

TABLE 27.-Domestic sales of gasoline, kerosene, and fuel oil in Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee, 1929–43

90. Total consumption of gasoline alone in the three States amounted to 2,700,000 tons in 1943. In 1942, the corresponding figure was 3,100,000 tons and in 1941, 3,200,000 tons. The decline in 1943 can be attributed largely to the effects of wartime rationing controls that were applied commencing in 1942. A large portion of the 2,700,000 tons entering into sales channels in 1943 was consumed in an area roughly tributary to the connected waterways, including 13 counties in eastern and northeastern Mississippi, 19 counties in western and northern Alabama, and 46 counties in central and eastern Tennessee. Estimated gasoline consumption in this area in 1943, according to registrations of passenger cars and trucks, in the counties of Alabama and Tennessee and on a per capita basis in Mississippi, where no data on motor vehicle registrations by counties were available, amounted to 992,000 tons.

91. The fact that nearly 1,000,000 tons of gasoline were consumed in 1943 in the area outlined above should not be taken to mean that all or even a great part of this tonnage will move through the water

In the past 3 years, the Southeastern and the Plantation Pipe Lines have been installed to serve southern and southeastern territory. These lines transport refined products and are likely to continue in operation after the war. It should be borne in mind, however, that

pipe line transportation has definite limitations, and that however strong the competitive influence, it cannot be expected to attract all of the traffic available in a given region. Transportation by barge of petroleum products will remain large, even in areas served by pipe lines. This statement is amply supported by the data in table 26, which shows steady growth in the movement of petroleum products on the river channels of the Mississippi-Ohio systems as well as on the Gulf Intracoastal and other waterways flowing into the Gulf, regardless of the extensive program of pipe-line construction undertaken in recent years. The tank barge affords greater flexibility than the pipe line; it affords the opportunity of shipping independently without the joint action required in the use of the pipe line; it moves products not moved in pipe lines; and finally, the rivers provide extremely low-cost transportation, offer a much greater element of "service to all," and have unlimited capacity.

92. The Southeastern Pipe Line, which reaches from Port St. Joe, Fla., to Lookout Mountain, Ga., a distance of 458 miles, is an 8- and 6-inch line with a capacity of 28,000 barrels per day or 1,417,000 tons annually. This line receives its supplies by deep-sea tankers and barges at Port St. Joe and distributes them in Georgia. Terminals are located at or near Bainbridge, Albany, Athens, Macon, Griffin, Atlanta, Rome, Armuchee and Lookout Mountain, and are within 100 miles of all cities in Georgia having a population of 10,000 or more. Receipts at these terminals in 1943 are shown in table 28.

TABLE 28.-Receipts at terminals on the Southeastern Pipe Line, 1943

1 Tonnage for Knoxville is carried by the Plantation Pipe Line from Armuchee. Source: Petroleum Administration for War.

93. The Plantation Pipe Line is a 12- to 10-inch line which extends from Baton Rouge, La., to Greensboro, N. C., with an 8-inch extension to Richmond, Va. It has a capacity of 90,000 barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 4%1⁄2 million tons per year. The line receives its products from refineries or barges at Baton Rouge or from other pipe lines coming in from Texas fields. It has one terminal in Mississippi, at Meridian; four in Alabama, at Moundville, Oxford, Montgomery, and Birmingham; two in Tennessee, at Knoxville and Chattanooga; six in Georgia, at Bremen, Athens, Doraville, Macon, Columbus, and Armuchee; and five in North and South Carolina. Receipts at terminals on the Plantation Pipe Line in 1943 are shown in table 29.

86805-46--11