10. Reports issued during calendar year 1961 by the Crop Reporting Board, by commodity groups.— Cotton production_. Type of reports Number of reports 7 Crop production, including prospective plantings, crop value, annual summaries and seed crops.. 77 Fruit and vegetables- 83 Milk and dairy, including 204 issued from Chicago___. Livestock and livestock products, including 13 from the western livestock office--- 243 72 Poultry and eggs, including 52 broiler and 52 turkey. 177 47 706 11. Schedule of reports.-The following schedule shows the release dates for the crop and livestock reports due to be issued in calendar year 1962. II. STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND SERVICE Current activities and trends The work under this activity includes review of all statistical forms, survey plans, and reporting and recordkeeping requirements originating in the Department and needing Bureau of the Budget approval; liaison for coordination of statistics within the Department and with other statistical agencies; general improvement of statistical methods and techniques, development of new methods and techniques, and providing technical consulting services to other agencies of the Department; research on and development of statistical techniques and methods to improve the crop and livestock estimates of the Department; conduct of special surveys relating to the marketing of agricultural products; and systems analysis, computer programing, and consultation on automatic data processing equipment. Enumeration of price data in Ohio.—A continuation of the Ohio project, both on an operational and research basis, is planned. It is hoped that the primary objective of this project-determining the optimum combination of enumerative and mail surveys-can be realized during the coming year. Analysis of data from the special June 1961 enumeration of a subsample of mail survey respondents will be useful in pinpointing the reasons for the significant difference be tween enumerative and mail survey averages which have been observed, which in turn should be helpful in arriving at the optimum mail-enumerative combination. A special effort will be made to develop comprehensive lists of merchants serving farmers. A stratified random sample will be drawn from this list to be contacted by mail. An enumerative followup will be made of a random subsample of nonrespondents. Data collected from this followup enumeration will be included in current tabulations if time permits. Otherwise, the data will be used to provide a basis for estimating averages for the entire universe by regression methods. Determination of costs and time factors of such a procedure will be given special attention. Women's attitudes toward cotton and competitive fiber The major purpose of this study of women's attitudes toward fibers was to gain information helpful in charting the direction of laboratory research and in improving cotton's marketing position. Subjects covered include women's ownership of certain items of clothing, their appraisals of fibers for these items and in general, and their experiences with and attitudes toward new developments in cotton, such as dark cottons, special weaves and textures, and easy care. When women were asked their fiber preferences, cotton was either the outstanding fiber or one of the leading contenders for all of the garments studied except knit dresses, where wool was dominant, and whole or half slips, where nylon was the predominant choice. Only 1 woman in 20 felt that wash-andwear clothes for women were not satisfactory, but 4 in 20 had some criticisms because of what they considered exaggerated claims for such materials. This study has been completed and the final report will soon be issued. Selected examples of recent progress 1. Automatic data processing. In recent months a concentrated effort has been underway to improve program effectiveness in the areas of data collection, processing, and publication in automatic data processing. The objectives of these efforts, more specifically, are to provide (a) Superior methods in operating efficiency, accuracy, and timeliness; (b) Significant data that are not otherwise obtainable; (c) Maximum reliability of data; and (d) Economies in dollars, man-hours, and data processing time. 2. Development of improved forecasts for the yield of irrigated cotton.-The fruiting behavior of the cotton plant grown under irrigated conditions is being studied in Arizona, New Mexico, and California. Data now available indicate that cotton grown under irrigated conditions behaves differently from dryland cotton and requires a different forecasting model. The studies now underway will provide information necessary to develop a yield forecasting model comparable to that already developed for the other 10 important cotton-producing States. 3. Electronic computer used for processing survey and objective yield data.— To increase the efficiency with which data are tabulated and analyzed, processing of survey and objective yield data was done by electronic computer. The computations of objective yields from plant observations taken at monthly intervals during the growing season were programed for wheat, cotton, and corn, and programs were written for expanding and analyzing the enumerative surveys. 4. Statistical clearance and consultation.-In serving as the designated Department's liaison between the Bureau of the Budget and all agencies of the Department, 561 requests for clearance of forms and reporting requirements were received during fiscal year 1961. Consultation with the Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other statistical agencies is being carried on to facilitate coordination and improvement of statistical programs. This work also entails the preparation of special reports concerning the Department's statistical activities, and participation in special seminars and workshops for the improvement of survey methods. 5. Market possibilities for superconcentrated apple juice studied.-A superconcentrated apple juice, developed by the Eastern Utilization Research and Development Laboratory, was market tested in Fort Wayne, Ind. Approximately 6 weeks after the promotional campaign for the new product, sponsored by the apple industry cooperators, a consumer survey was conducted to gather information about consumer use of and attitudes toward the test juice. Α majority of the purchasers of this product were not currently using other processed apple juice, and it was well received by those consumers. 6. Attitudes toward food stamp plan studied.-Attitudes toward pilot operations of the food stamp plan are being studied in McDowell County, W. Va., and in Detroit, Mich. Food trade personnel, welfare workers, officials administering the program, eligibles, and the general public are being asked to give their opinions of the plan and suggestions for improvements or modifications. 7. Yield forecasts on sour cherries.-Efficient sampling procedures for estimating cherry fruit numbers have been worked out. On about one-twentieth of each of three trees per sample orchard, fruit counts are made. With the present sample of 135 orchards, an estimate of fruit per tree is provided that has a coefficient of variation of about 6 percent. Early season counts while the fruit is small and green are tedious to make. The spur is the sampling unit and fruit per spur is estimated by a subsample. There were minor difficulties with the spur count last year. The difficulty seemed to be in distinguishing between fruiting and nonfruiting spurs. Although on a semi-operating basis, this work will continue as a research project and efforts will be made to improve counting accuracy and to study fruit growth. 8. Soybean yields in the North Central States.-No satisfactory method of forecasting bean weight has been discovered. An average of bean weights from past seasons is about as good on August 1 and September 1 as a forecast based upon current observations by any method yet devised. However, a study is being made of the relationship between moisture content and bean weight in the hope that immature bean weight can be related through moisture content (as a measure of maturity) to bean weight at maturity. The methods devised for forecasting pod and bean numbers seem to be working fairly well. 9. Selected factors on food consumption.-A pilot study on the effect of selected factors on food consumption was carried out in several cities in Pennsylvania to examine the effect of such characteristics as nationality, education, occupation, and related social factors on food habits and attitudes. Knowledge of these relationships will be of value in directing consumer education designed to shift existing patterns of consumption. Analysis is now underway; the amount of detail collected has slowed progress. The final report on this study will be published by the Pennsylvania State University. GENERAL STATEMENT Mr. WHITTEN. Dr. Trelogan, do you have a prepared statement you would like to present? Dr. TRELOGAN. Yes. Mr. Chairman, members of the committee, we appreciate this opportunity to review the organization, functions and 1963 budget proposals for the Statistical Reporting Service. Members of this committee are generally familiar with our major program-crop and livestock reporting-which has been providing basic agricultural statistics for more than a century. However, since this is the first time the Statistical Reporting Service has appeared before this committee, I would like to briefly review our functions and organization. ORGANIZATION In February 1961, the Secretary announced plans for reorganizing the Department's statistical reporting and economic research functions under the Director, Agricultural Economics. This involved the transfer from the Agricultural Marketing Service to the Statistical Reporting Service of the crop and livestock reporting, statistical research and coordination, and special marketing surveys. The programs assigned to the Statistical Reporting Service are carried out through three divisions and the Crop Reporting Board. Crop Reporting Board: S. R. Newell, Chairman, is probably known to you as "Mr. Agricultural Statistics." The Board prepares and issues on specific dates the official State and National estimates and reports of the Department relating to production, supply, price and other aspects of the agricultural economy. Board members are designated for specific reports as provided by law and Department regulations. Organizationally, the Crop Reporting Board is attached to the Office of the Administrator and Mr. Newell also serves as Deputy Administrator. The Agricultural Estimates Division: R. K. Smith, Director, directs the preparation of basic plans for, and the technical aspects of, crop and livestock estimating and reporting programs involving the collection, analysis, and interpretation of sample data and preparation of estimates, forecasts, and reports. In effect, it performs the Washington staff work for the Crop Reporting Board. The division includes four commodity branches and the Price Statistics Branch in Washington, the Western Livestock Office, Denver, Colo., and the Dairy Statistics Office, Chicago, Ill. The Field Operations Division: Glenn D. Simpson, Director, directs the administrative aspects of crop and livestock estimating and reporting programs carried out by 43 State statistical offices. These offices conduct enumerative, objective measurement, and mail surveys in connection with SRS programs and special surveys in cooperation with other Department and Federal agencies. The division develops and maintains cooperative relationships with the State departments of agriculture, or other appropriate State agency, in the conduct of Federal-State statistical reporting programs. The Standards and Research Division: Mr. Earl E. Houseman, Director, conducts research on methods for developing new and improved techniques for agricultural data collection and estimation and for improving forecasts of crop yields; reviews all statistical forms, survey plans, and reporting and recordkeeping requirements originating in the Department and requiring approval by the Bureau of the Budget pursuant to the Federal Reports Act; performs liaison for coordination of statistics within the Department and with other statistical agencies; conducts special marketing data surveys; and carries out functions relating to systems analysis, computer programing, and processing of data by electronic computer. The division consists of four branches, all in Washington-Research and Development, Statistical Clearance, Special Surveys, and Data Processing. With this brief organizational background, I would like now to review our program progress and budget plans for 1963. CROP AND LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES The Statistical Reporting Service functions as the primary data collecting agency for agriculture. A major objective is to provide current quantitative information accompanied by significant historic data to facilitate comparisons. By this I mean, each current report or estimate is usually accompanied by comparable data for the previous year and by significant 5- or 10-year averages, so people using the data can better judge the current situation. The purpose is to enable farmers, businessmen, legislators, and policymakers to make more intelligent decisions. To serve these users, the information must be accurate, reliable, complete, and timely. Crop and livestock estimates have to be adapted to a dynamic agriculture. The growth of our Nation in terms of wealth and population; the trend toward larger farms and business firms, and toward greater integration of successive steps in farm production and agricultural marketing; the increasing role of governmental agencies influencing farm supplies and dispositions; and the changing technology of farming and related industries have altered the character of American agriculture. Mr. HORAN. Mr. Chairman, would my good friend Harry Trelogan pause there just a minute. You should also mention the fact that the road patterns and the transportation patterns have a very definite effect upon your job. Dr. TRELOGAN. Yes, indeed, all the things that affect the channels of distribution have a distinct effect on where and how to acquire data for estimating supplies and prices. In light of the changes I have been describing, the farmer is more dependent on statistical information. Farms are being operated more like commercial businesses, highly dependent upon exchange in which costs and returns, profits and losses have to be taken into account to determine success and failure. Farmers are doing more buying and selling and consequently these data become more important to them in making business decisions. The growing importance of adequate, factual information in the form of statistics is general throughout business. As business units grow, including both farms and companies with which the farmers deal, the importance of the decisions is accentuated. Statistics that served the needs of agriculture a generation ago are no longer adequate in either scope or precision. Over the years, the data collecting work of the Department has been improved primarily by extending the services to more crops or more items, or by providing more detailed information with respect to the established items. As a result, we have a system that might be thought of in terms of an annual cycle of information. For crops, the cycle of estimates begins each year with intentions to plant, followed by estimates of planted acreage, and forecasts of yield during the growing season, ending with harvested acreage, production, and final utilization of the crops. A wide range of other estimates is made throughout the year including livestock inventories, animals on feed, livestock products, stocks on hand, prices paid and prices received by farmers, farm labor, dairy statistics, and crop and weather data. These estimates are released through the medium of about 700 reports per year issued from Federal offices. They range in size and scope from the general crop report, with which I think all of you are familiar, to individual specialized commodity reports. The 700 reports are of a regular nature. They come out weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannually, or annually. Interspersed are contingent reports on surveys of unusual items, such as the recent one on citrus freeze damage in Florida. The primary data, covering all 50 States, for crop, livestock, and price reports are, for the most part, collected, tabulated, and analyzed in 43 State statistical offices. These offices are responsible for collecting information within States through regular mail surveys, by phone, and by personal visits. Individual State estimates are prepared from these data and submitted to the Crop Reporting Board for final review. In addition to the reports released from Federal offices, each of the States gets out reports of a rather substantial nature. They get out current reports with respect to the crops and the livestock. They also prepare reports of appropriate historical data that enable the people within the States to judge the present situation in light of past trends. State reports issued in the course of a year add up to more than 9,000. The data for these reports, both Federal and State, come primarily from mail surveys, enumerative surveys and objective yield measurements all of which are conducted on a rigid time schedule. In January of each year a schedule is published to indicate the day, and in many cases the hour, when the reports will appear so that users may anticipate them and be able to get the material promptly. The schedule, which follows page 38 of the explanatory notes, also aids comprehension of the range of the reports that come out each year. In general, the data must be collected, summarized, and estimates prepared by the field offices for the Crop Reporting Board's review and issuance within a period of 10 days to 2 weeks. |