Chapter II HOUSING SUPPLY AND NEEDS A. The Housing Supply The latest figures assembled by the Bureau of the Census show that in April 1947 our inventory of housing in both farm and non farm areas combined had reached a new all-time peak of 41,625,000, an increase of nearly 12 percent over 1940. Of this total over 34,100,000 were located in nonfarm areas, the remaining 7,500,000 being in farm areas. Reflecting the effects of a sustained period of full employment and high incomes during and after the war, coupled with a pressing demand for housing, property owners the country over made remarkable strides in repairing and rehabilitating properties, many of which had been allowed to fall into disrepair during the depression years. As a result the proportion of all dwellings which the Bureau of the Census found to be in good condition or needing only minor repairs rose from 82 percent in 1940 to 90 percent in 1947. In 1947 two-thirds of the Nation's houses had both a private bath and an indoor flush toilet. In 1940 only slightly more than half our homes were so equipped. Encouraging as the improvement in the physical condition of our housing inventory has been, there are still slums and blighted areas in our cities and towns, large and small. In rural areas a distressingly large proportion of the housing fails to measure up to a minimum standard for health and decency. On the basis of Bureau of the Census figures there were in April 1947 over 6,100,000 nonfarm homes which did not meet generally accepted standards for adequate housing. In farm areas there were 1,400,000 dwellings in need of major repair to say nothing of several million more which lacked such basic amenities of life as running water, bathtubs, and inside flush toilets. In addition to the families who live in substandard dwellings like these, the census reports that in April 1948 some 2,500,000 families were living doubled up with other families or living in furnished rooms, trailers, or other makeshift accommodations. This compares with the 1,846,000 doubled families and 100,000 families in makeshift accommodations in 1940. The situation has been further aggravated by the fact that the marriage rate while lower than in the immediate postwar peak is still high. Thus vital statistics records show that there were about 1,833,000 marriages during 1948 compared with an average of less than 1,200,000 per year during the 1920's. The magnitude of the Nation's housing needs are apparent from an examination of the scope of the job which must be done if the most critical needs are to be met between now and 1960. An analysis of Bureau of the Census figures indicates that after deducting summer cottages, boarded-up mansions, uninhabitable shacks, etc., there was an effective supply of nonfarm dwelling units of 34,829,000 at the beginning of 1949 as the following table indicates: Effective nonfarm housing inventory as of end of 1948 (In thousands) Total number of nonfarm dwelling units in April 1947 according to 1 34, 248 Substract: Uninhabitable dwellings... 137 Seasonal cottages, hunting lodges, etc___ 991 Vacant units held off the market (boarded up mansions, units sold, or rented but not yet occupied). Effective supply of housing to meet nonfarm needs as of April 1947__ 32, 729 Add: Estimated additions to supply in 1947 and 1948 through new construction and conversion___ 2, 100 Estimated effective nonfarm supply, beginning of 1949_ 34, 829 1United States Bureau of the Census; Current Population Report Series P-70 No. 1. Housing Characteristics of the United States, April 1947, table 1. B. Housing Needs By 1960, it is estimated, there will be some 39,500,000 non farm families who will require shelter. When allowance is made for a 4-percent effective vacancy rate to permit the needed mobility in the population and to provide for reasonable freedom of choice in selection of a place to live this family forecast means that we will need an effective nonfarm housing inventory in 1960 of some 41,100,000 units or roughly 8,300,000 more than were on hand in 1947. Allowing for the fact that some 2,100,000 units have apparently been added to the nonfarm supply since 1947, this means that by 1960 at least 6,200,000 dwellings must be added to the nonfarm housing inventory just to keep pace with our expanding family requirements. If we did no more than this, however, we would actually find the housing situation worse in 1960 than it was in 1947. No account would have been taken of the effects of the disaster and ravages of time upon our existing supply, to say nothing of the urgent need for doing something about the more than 6,000,000 nonfarm units which the Census figures show were inadequate in 1947. As the following table shows, there would be a need for replacing or rehabilitating close to 8,500,000 dwellings between now and 1960 if we hope to make any significant progress in improving the housing standards of the nonfarm population. Nonfarm dwelling units needing replacement or rehabilitation (1947–60) [In thousands] Urban and rural nonfarm units which were in need of major repairs and urban units which lacked private bath and toilet in April 1947‒‒‒‒‒‒‒‒15, 600 Suburban units lacking private bath and toilet and currently standard nonfarm units which will deteriorate by 1960----Estimated losses through disaster, demolition, etc.. Losses through removal of temporary housing. Total replacement and rehabilitation need.... 2,000 520 350 8,470 1 United States Bureau of the Census; Current Population Report Series P-70 No. 1. Housing Characteristics of the United States, April 1947, table 4. There is in addition a need for building or rehabilitating between 2,000,000 and 3,000,000 farm dwellings before 1960. Taken as a whole, therefore, the job which should be done between now and 1960 involves between 17,000,000 and 18,000,000 dwellings as may be seen in the table below. Housing needs of the United States to 1960 [In thousands] Number of nonfarm families which will require housing in 1960___ or sale Total effective supply of dwelling units needed in 1960--Subtract: Estimated effective supply, end of 1948 (from a previous table) -- Net additional number of units which need to be added to the supply by 1960 to keep up with rate of family formation----Add: Total replacement and rehabilitation need (from table above) Total nonfarm new construction conversion and rehabilita- Add: Total farm new construction and rehabilitation need. 1 Derived from Bureau of the Census estimates of total families in 1960. The above estimates although they include both farm and non farm needs do not cover the problems involved for the millions of homes in rural areas which lack modern sanitary facilities. Some part of this job will be accomplished through a better utilization and conservation of our present supply. First, some additional housing may be accounted for by the conversion of larger structures into a greater number of smaller dwellings. Second, it may be possible to meet part of this need through a better preservation of our present stock of sound and acceptable housing than in the past. Third, it may also be possible to take care of some of the requirements through the rehabilitation of those substandard units which can be made into sound and acceptable housing, such as has been accomplished to some extent during the recent years. We cannot, however, count too heavily on rehabilitation since it would appear probable that much of the housing which has not been brought up to standard was, by reason of quality, location, and structural characteristics, not worth rehabilitating even during the recent period of unparalleled prosperity and unparalleled housing demand. Housing for families of moderate and low incomes constitutes an important segment of our present and future housing requirements. According to Census Bureau figures, one-fifth of the Nation's urban families and over half of the Nation's farm families had total money incomes of less than $2,000 in even as prosperous a year as 1947. While the rising costs of housing have been a burden to home seekers in all walks of life they have been unusually burdensome to those in the lower income brackets. This is particularly true, for example, with respect to minority groups who are concentrated so largely in the lower income levels. Although, according to Census Bureau data, a fourth of the urban nonwhite families had total money incomes of $3,000 or more for the year 1947, over half of such families had total money incomes for 1947 of less that $2,000. At the same time, the proportion of nonfarm dwelling units occupied by nonwhites which were overcrowded was roughly four times as high as that for whites, and the proportion of such units occupied by nonwhites which needed major repairs or lacked essential plumbing facilities was almost six times as high as that for whites. From all indications, the housing problems of veterans during 1948 continued to be more acute than those of nonveterans. The most recent national surveys of veterans' housing problems were undertaken in 1946 and early 1947, and no national survey was undertaken during the past year. Some local studies were made in 1948, one in Maryland and one in Seattle, Wash.; these revealed that veterans were still having considerable difficulty in solving their housing problems. Another indication of the housing situation of veterans is apparent from a Bureau of the Census survey of doubling-up based on April 1948 data. According to this survey, there were then 2,500,000 families living with other families; at least 1,100,000 of them were families headed by male veterans of World War II. The tabulations available on this survey showed data only for those veteran families which were living "doubled-up" with families to which they were related. Thus the 1,100,000 figure was an understatement since there was undoubtedly an additional-though unascertained-number of other veterans' families, included in the total 2,500,000 doubled-up families, to which they were not related. However, even on the basis of these minimum figures at least 15 percent of all veterans' families were living with other families in April 1948, nearly twice the national proportion for doubling-up, according to the Census Bureau. C. Slum Clearance, Urban Development and Redevelopment An analysis of the housing problem in America would necessarily include not only a statement of housing needs as presented above but also some indication of the problems involved in clearing out the slums and blight affecting large areas of nearly all American cities. The very concentration of most of the bad housing of our cities in slums accentuates all the evil affects of such housing on the health and character of the families who must live under these conditions. It creates additional problems of environment which have an impact on the slum dwellers themselves, on the stability of adjoining areas, and on the financial structure of municipalities. In city after city, the rates of infant mortality, disease, juvenile delinquency, crime, and fires are at least twice as great in slum and blighted areas as in the city at large. The slums are thus social liabilities of the first magnitude. They are also financial liabilities since the costs of servicing them far exceed tax revenues from them. Further, as additional areas of cities experience the progressive deterioration of slums and blight, new residential construction is forced more and more beyond municipal boundaries into the suburbs beyond, creating additional problems both for the suburban communities and the central cities. Cities are increasingly aware of the necessity of clearing slums and blighted areas and encouraging the kind of redevelopment that will provide decent living conditions for large segments of their populations and eliminate the heavy social and economic costs which these areas are now causing. Several cities are now making surveys of their blighted areas, some are drafting specific redevelopment plans, and a few have actually initiated redevelopment operations. In the first group are such cities |