Foreword This report describes the first priorities list developed by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) as a result of a new and ongoing process for selecting possible projects for study. OTA was created in 1972 to provide Congress with early indications of the broad range of impacts of technological applications on our society. Those impacts include the beneficial and the adverse, the physical, biological, economic, social, and political. OTA is required to bring a long-term global and comprehensive perspective to bear and to provide Congress with independent, authoritative, evenhanded assessments. This approach provides Members of Congress with one means of stepping back from the near-term and more narrow issues which crowd their busy calendars to focus on longer term and more comprehensive issues which often crosscut the jurisdictions of several congressional committees. OTA's projects are initiated on approval by its Technology Assessment Board of six Senators and six Congressmen. Requests for studies may be made to the Board from three different perspectives: by chairmen of congressional committees, by members of the Board, and by the Director of OTA upon consultation with the Board. Until this year nearly all requests have come from congressional committees with a few from Board members. This report describes the first effort to complement the committee and Board perspectives with priorities suggested by the Director. This new OTA priority-setting process has been open and broadly participatory. Between February and May 1978, over 5,000 people were asked to consider the critical technological issues that they thought were of especial importance to the United States and the world. and to submit their top choices to us. People solicited included approximately 1,000 who have been advisors to OTA-consultants, contractors, and panel members. The staffs of OTA, the General Accounting Office, and the Congressional Research Service were deeply involved. From these efforts to reach as broad and informed a public as possible, OTA received 1,530 suggested topics for study. Another 2,875 items were extracted from the published literature. To cope with this large list, OTA mobilized its staff to organize, combine, winnow, and rank the candidates into a manageable list of 30 items. In this process the Technology Assessment Advisory Council played a major role devoting nearly all its efforts for 9 months to proposing, critiquing, and ranking items for the list. The Council members' expertise and broad experience made their contribution especially valuable to the process. To facilitate the sorting and ranking process, OTA's senior staff developed criteria of what constitutes a preferred OTA project. The • Does the assessment involve the impact of technology? • Is there congressional interest? • Does the technology impact significantly on human needs and quality of life? • Would the assessment provide foresight? Can OTA do the assessment? All members of the Board as well as their staff liaison with OTA were involved in the priority-setting process. In addition, the staffs of nearly all congressional committees were consulted. At a joint meeting of the Board and the Advisory Council called to consider the priority list, unanimous support was received for the process. During the year-long consideration of priorities, seven were selected for activation in 1978 and approved by the Board. They are as follows: • Alternative National Energy Futures Regulations and Technological Innovation • Effects of Nuclear War • Impacts of Telecommunications Technology • Cost Effectiveness of Medical Technologies • Potential for Advanced Air Transport Three additional topics suggested by the priorities-determining process have been started as internal methodological studies. These are topics of broad interest to all OTA projects, and should influence the style and scope of our work as well as be of substantial interest to our congressional clients: • Effects of Technology on Risks to Humankind • Technology and Centralization/Decentralization • Measures of Quality of Life as a Basis for Assessing Technological Choices. This booklet is divided into two parts. The first part covers the OTA Priorities, 1979, and includes a one-page description of each of the 30 priority projects arranged in descending order of priority. The second provides a list and brief descriptions of the active projects as of January 1, 1979. The OTA Priorities will be used as a guide during 1979 in selecting projects for submittal by the Director to the Board for approval. The priority-setting process will be ongoing. In the latter part of 1979 a new list will be developed for use in 1980. Your suggestions will be welcome. Aussell W. Peterson RUSSELL W. PETERSON Alternative Global Food Futures.... Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Technologies. Description on page Impact of Technology on Productivity of the Land.... 5 Impacts of Technology on Productivity, Inflation, and Technology and the Developing World-Meeting Basic Human Needs... Peace Technology Impact of Microprocessing on Society Applications of Technology in Space.. Designing for Conservation of Materials. Future of Military Equipment 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Impact of Technology on the Movement of Goods. ..... Forest Resource Technologies.... Health Technologies and Third-World Diseases.. Alternative Materials Technologies Deep Ocean Minerals Development... Energy Efficiency in Industry 16 17 18 19 20 Role of Technology in Meeting Housing Needs Ocean Waste Disposal... ..... Technology and the Handicapped Priorities IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON NATIONAL WATER Problem. Freshwater is a vital renewable national resource. Although the Nation's overall freshwater supply is more than adequate, its distribution causes serious problems. Some areas get too much precipitation; others have too little. Arid regions often resort to such dangerous alternatives as pumping supplies from aquifers faster than they can be naturally replenished. Unfortunately, the legal and economic web that regulates most water supplies- even in dry areas-often does not encourage the most efficient usage. Also, many individual States regulate water with an eye to their own needs—a practice which contrasts with some effective regional management schemes. Projected demands for water for coal gasification, liquefaction, and mining; for cooling towers; and for irrigation exceed the projected supply in some States. Some alternative water supply technologies that merit study include surface water development, such as impoundments; groundwater extraction; and interchangeable ground and surface water systems. Others include conservation aimed at major water users, waste-water recycling, desalination, undersea aqueducts, and iceberg towing. All of these systems have social, economic, or environmental impacts that must be assessed. The effects of overuse of available water supplies need evaluation. Depletion of ground-water supplies, land subsidence, lowering of the water table, and intrusion into aquifers by saltwater, minerals, salts, and sewage are all recognized to be problems. OTA Role. An initial OTA study would concentrate on analyses of technology affecting future water supply and demand projections. It would also provide Congress with information needed to evaluate alternatives to current Federal water programs, and would explore possibilities for better coordinating the use of the Nation's freshwater supplies. It would also consider the following issues: • Possible trade-offs among water uses for energy manufacture, agriculture, and recreation. • Conservation plans, including possible Federal action, conservation through pricing systems, recycling of water, and improved irrigation techniques. • Water management, especially the roles of the Federal, State, and local governments in managing water resources. • The development of a nationally consistent data bank. • Cost-sharing proposals among governments and private users that might reduce water consumption or channel available supplies in appropriate directions. |