Source: "The Decentralization of Jobs," Article by Dorothy K. Newman appearing in Monthly Labor Review, May 1967, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C. *Estimated on basis of 1960 and 1965 Commonwealth of Massachusetts Census data. Source: Analysis of the Boston, Massachusetts, Housing Market, Federal Housing Administration, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C., October 1967. Future Location of Population and Employment in the Boston Regional Area In line with these developments--the changing, upgraded structure of the Boston Area economy, and the outward shift of population and manufacturing and trade employment to the metropolitan ring--Boston's population and employment are expected to continue to decline over the next quarter century while that of the Greater Boston Regional Area is expected to grow by one-third (Table 8). In this context, in accordance with recent studies of the Boston Metropolitan Area Planning Council, Boston's employment is expected to fall by only one-eighth while its population may be reduced by one-third. Prospects for the Viability of Boston Central City Despite anticipated smaller population and employment levels, however, the City of Boston economy may be expected to participate in the general upward shift of households to higher income levels over the next two decades. Whereas only half of all households in the Boston Metropolitan Area had incomes of $8,000 or more, in 1965, threefourths of all households are expected to be in this category by 1985, in the framework of an expanding national economy (Table 9). This more affluent Boston Metropolitan Area population will also be younger, with three-fourths under 45 years of age, in 1985, in comparison with two-thirds in 1965. Of course, in comparison with the metropolitan area, Boston may be expected to retain a larger share of the lower income and older age households. Nevertheless, the growth of government, business and personal service activity employment in Boston, and the future upward shift of household income levels suggest a potential for economic viability of the Boston economy, even with a declining population. This possibility, however, will be highly sensitive to the amelioration of fiscal disparities affecting Boston in relation to its surrounding metropolitan ring communities. II. Overview LOCAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL DISPARITIES IN THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA Within the general framework of rapidly rising per capita personal incomes levels, and lesser population growth, the Boston Metropolitan Area's 70-odd cities and towns cover a wide spectrum of types in comparison with the nation as a whole. These include balanced communities (combining an economic base with a full range of services), those with specialization in manufacturing, wholesale or retail trade, education, or recreation, as well as industrial and estate enclaves, and bedroom communities. The dominant feature, nevertheless, is that of shrinking lower income central city and central core communities, and emerging higher income suburban cities and towns. This feature may be expected to continue over the next quarter century as the Boston Metropolitan Area's population and employment expand by one-third. In this framework, Boston central city's higher per capita government expenditures, required mainly to service its high cost, low income citizenry, compels a straining of its smaller per capita fiscal capacity, even though its revenue effort is unusually high. State and federal aid and intergovernmental cooperation do not sufficiently ameliorate Boston's comparative fiscal needs, nor appropriately compensate for the metropolitan area-wide services it renders, though recent developments in these areas are benefitting Boston. Substantial additional state and federal aid, and intergovernmental cooperation, are needed to redress these fiscal disparities adversely affecting Boston. This redress is needed to complement the recent revitalization of the Boston central city economy, TABLE 8.--LOCATION OF POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT, BY CORE AND METROPOLITAN RING IN THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS REGIONAL PLANNING AREA1/ 1/ Some 76 cities and towns in a radius of 30 miles of downtown Boston. 2/ Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Chelsea, Everett, and Somerville. 3/ Arlington, Belmont, Brighton, Lynn, Malden, Medford, Melrose, Milton, Nahant, Quincy, Revere, Saugus, Watertown, Winchester, Winthrop. 4/ Communities bordering on Route 128. 5/ Communities between Routes 128 and 495. 6/ Communities bordering on Route 495. 1/ Communities beyond Route 495. Source: Unpublished preliminary analyses and projections of the Boston |