OPERATIONS RESEARCH

1. Title of contract: FCDA damage assessment system. (a) Date initiated: October 22, 1957.

(b) Contract completion date: October 22, 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: Stanford Research Institute.

(d) Amount of contract: $80,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract is for work in the broad field of operations research. It has three identifiable areas of study. Each will be discussed separately. The current work is being undertaken as a refinement of completed studies inaugurated in prior fiscal years.

As the name implies, the damage assessment system is a means for rapidly estimating the damage (to people and resources) resulting from an enemy attack on our country. These estimates are required as bases for decisions in an emergency situation.

The system is a computing program using an electronic computer. It has four parts:

1. A model of the country.—This is an arithmetic model in which people and a limited number of resources of especial significance to FCDA are represented by numerical quantities located at points which are given geographic coordinates.

2. A model of the attack.-This, too, is an arithmetic model in which weapon and wind data are represented by numerical quantities. Each weapon is represented by numerical measures of the yield, the height of burst, and the geographic coordinates of its ground zero. Average winds for each of a number of regions are represented by numerical measures of their velocity and direction.

3. A model of weapon effects.-This is a mathematical model in which weapon effects are represented by numerical quanties. For direct effects, these quantities are measures of the probability of destruction related to the distance from ground zero for a variety of weapon yields and burst heights. For fallout, the quantities are intensity and dose at various points, and the probability of being a casualty.

4. A computing procedure. By this procedure, the electronic computer combines the mathematics of the weapon effects model with the numbers of the models of the country and the attack. The product is an estimate of the numbers of people and resources surviving.

While this system was originally designed for postattack use-and will be so used-it also has an important preattack usability. War-gamed attacks are fed into the system and estimates of attack effects derived for use as bases for planning.

It is expected that, at the completion of the work under the present contract, the FCDA bomb damage assessment system will be workable and will need little further refinement. However, there will be a continuing need for updating of population and resource data. It is intended that this work be done by other than the present contractor.

2. Title of contract: Liaison with National Damage Assessment Center. (a) Date initiated: October 22, 1957.

(b) Contract completion date: October 22, 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: Stanford Research Institute.

(d) Amount of contract: $23,000.

(e) Purpose: FCDA is obligated by DMO I-26 to participate with the Office of Defense Mobilization and the Department of Defense in the National Damage Assessment Center. In support of this participation, the Stanford Research Institute is rewriting the FCDA damage assessment system computing program so that it may be run on the NDAC computer. Thus, the working FCDA system is made available to the entire executive branch.

In addition, there is need for liaison between the two systems to avoid unecessary duplication. This contract provides this liaison through the period in which FCDA is building the competence to do it with its own staff.

3. Title of contract: Strategic framework.

(a) Date initiated: October 22, 1957.

(b) Contract completion date: October 22, 1958 (present contract). (c) Name of contractor: Stanford Research Institute.

(d) Amount of contract: $246,000.

(e) Purpose: Nonmilitary defense must operate in a two-sided strategic situation. Each side has offensive capabilities; each has active and nonmilitary defenses. The task of nonmilitary defense must be identified and measured in this strategic framework. The nonmilitary defense system must be tested and evaluated within this framework. It is the purpose of this contract to design the strategic framework, to fill in some of the numbers for the offensive and defensive capabilities, and to start evaluating our nonmilitary defense within it. Since the offensive and defensive capabilities of both sides are continually changing, this will be a continuing task. Thus, the completion date shown refers only to the present contract.

EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLY, SEWAGE, AND WASTE DISPOSAL STUDIES

1. Title of contact: Decontamination of biological and chemical warfare agents in potable water supplies.

(a) Date initiated: May 1958.

(b) Completion date: August 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: United States Department of the Army, Engineering Research and Development Laboratories, Corps of Engineers.

(d) Amount of contract: $2,500.

(e) Purpose: The purpose of the contract is to develop procedures by which VX gas can be removed from water, using the facilities and chemicals available in a conventional type municipal water treatment plant. This work is to be additional to the basic continuing program of the ERDL, Corps of Engineers, Fort Belvoir, Va., in developing and testing methods effective in the removal of chemical warfare agents from potable water supplies for military field use.

ECONOMIC STUDIES

1. Title of contract: Civilian survival supply-requirements development and methodology.

(a) Date initiated: March 1958.

(b) Completion date: Open ended, except for completion with respect to selected medical items data by July 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: Business Defense Services Administration, Department of Commerce.

(d) Amount of contract: $100,000.

(e) Purpose: To improve the capabilities of FCDA in the estimation of requirements and determination of available supplies. The various exercises, including Operation Alert 1957, have demonstrated the inadequacies of information currently available and the necessity for improved computational methods if we anticipate factual preattack planning or postattack operational capability. This project is to correct this inadequacy, by surveying the availability of essential survival items, preparing tapes for inclusion in the National Damage Assessment Center's resources file, and developing methods for quickly determining location and quantity of survival items in the distribution channels.

2. Title of contract: Updating the resources file of the National Damage Assessment Center with the 1955 annual survey data.

(a) Date initiated: March 1958.

(b) Completion date: July 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: Bureau of Census. (d) Amount of contract: $9,367.

(ODM and Bureau of Census are sharing equally with FCDA. Total amount is $28,100.)

(e) Purpose: To update the resources file from data in the annual survey of 1953 to that of 1955. The earlier data are rapidly becoming obsolete and the value of damage assessment work at the National Damage Assessment Center is largely dependent upon the quality of data in its resource file. Both preattack planning and postattack damage analysis require accurate data on manufacturing establishments to be meaningful and to provide a basis for decisions affecting our national survival.

CIVIL DEFENSE TRAINING AND EDUCATION EVALUATION

1. Title of contract: Evaluation of training effectiveness of courses taught by FCDA.

(a) Date initiated: May 1957.

(b) Completion date: February 1959.

(c) Name of contractor: Applied Psychological Services.

(d) Amount of contract: $50,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract was initiated in order to obtain an evaluation of training effectiveness of civil defense courses relating to (a) administration, (b) operations, (c) evacuation, and (d) rescue taught at the FCDA Staff College, the Olney rescue facility, and in States by the FCDA traveling team. The contractor is required to develop and provide data to the Government on (a) validity of training, (b) the percent of graduates still working in civil defense, (c) the influence of training on performance by graduates, (d) extraneous materials, (e) gaps in training, and (f) adequacy of training.

The contractor will make recommendations for the revision and modification of the aforementioned courses, and will furnish the Government with instruments and techniques that may be used in conducting followup studies in the future. His work should result in materially improving the quality of FCDA instruction in its Staff College and by its traveling teams.

HUMAN BEHAVIOR RESEARCH

1. Title of contract: Natural disaster studies.

(a) Date initiated: June 1957.

(b) Completion date: June 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council (NAS-NRC).

(d) Amount of contract: $42,000.

(e) Purpose: To obtain consultative and research services upon questions and problems of human behavior in disaster and civil defense. Summaries and analyses of existing data and scientific material on human behavior in disaster, with special reference to information gained from the study of peacetime disasters, are being prepared. Limited on-the-spot studies of peacetime disasters are made for the purpose of obtaining information relevant to civil defense operational functions. The disaster research group further assists in the formulation and conduct of research projects designed to secure more definitive information on human factors affecting civil defense planning, operations, or systems; evaluates the applicability to civil defense; and makes available to the Government the results of other research conducted by the National Research Council in the field of human behavior in disaster.

Preface

NUCLEAR FIELD TESTS

Contracts described in this section of the report include projects for which the actual construction and nuclear field testing have been completed but for which final evaluation reports have not been received.

1. Title of contract: Dome construction.

(a) Date initiated: February 1957.

(b) Completion date: June 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: Lembke, Clough & King.

(d) Amount of contract: $92,000.

(e) Purpose: Contract was awarded to perform the construction of the test domes. Three 50-foot-diameter reinforced concrete dome structures were constructed, at ranges of about 20, 35, and 70 pounds per square inch exposed to side overpressure. Report being written by American Machine & Foundry. 2. Title of contract: Garage construction.

(a) Date initiated: February 1957.

(b) Completion date: June 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: Lembke, Clough & King.

(d) Amount of contract: $193,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract provided for the construction of the dual-purpose parking garage at the approximate 35 p. s. i. range. Structure was 90 by 90 feet, supported by 9 columns and was covered by 3 feet of earth.

Contract

included all construction operations. Whitney.

3. Title of contract: Family shelters. (a) Date initiated: April 1957.

(b) Completion date: June 1957.

Report to be written by Amman &

(c) Name of contractor: Reynolds Electric & Engineering.

(d) Amount of contract: $37,000.

(e) Purpose: This cost-plus-fixed-fee contract was awarded to the service contractor of AEC. It provided for the construction of 3 reinforced concrete family shelters at the 30-, 48-, and 70-pounds-per-square-inch ranges. Report being written by FCDA.

4. Title of contract: Structure instrumentation.

(a) Date initiated: October 1956.

(b) Completion date: May 1958.

(c) Name of contractor: United States Department of the Army, Ballistics Research Laboratory, and Armour Research Foundation.

(d) Amount of contract: $398,000.

(e) Purpose: Scientific instrumentation of test projects was provided by Ballistics Research Laboratory and Armour Research Foundation. All shelter structures in the FCDA program and the French and German shelters were instrumented with both electronic and self-recording equipment. The results of the instrumentation have been provided to the projects concerned and will be included in the final reports.

5. Title of contract: Foreign shelter construction.

(a) Date initiated: April 1957.

(b) Completion date: August 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: Sierra Construction Corp.

(d) Amount of contract: $451,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract provided for the construction of 9 German and 5 French structures at the Nevada Test Site. Components and equipment for the structures were provided by the government concerned. Instrumentation for these structures is included in the previous item. Construction cost was financed by the French and German Governments. Reports are being written by Amman & Whitney.

6. Title of contract: Door test.

(a) Date initiated: April 1957.
(b) Completion date: June 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: Reynolds Electric & Engineering.

(d) Amount of contract: $40,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract provided for the installation and equipping of 10 industrial doors. The doors were of different materials and methods of construction. They were tested at 321⁄2 and 7 pounds per square inch. Report being written by FCDA.

7. Title of contract: Blast valve design.

(a) Date initiated: January 1957.

(b) Completion date: May 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: Arthur D. Little, Inc.

(d) Amount of contract: $40,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract provided for the design, development, and fabrication of 11 antiblast valves by Arthur D. Little, Inc. In addition to the actual prototypes to be provided for the test, the contractor provided specifications and drawings for use of FCDA in future blast valve development. Report is being written by FCDA.

8. Title of contract: Water decontamination.

(a) Date initiated: May 1957.

(b) Completion date: November 1957.

(c) Name of contractor: United States Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers.

(d) Amount of contract: $6,000.

(e) Purpose: This contract with the Corps of Engineers was an attempt to develop methods and techniques for field decontamination of water. This was an extension of work in program by the corps and was partially financed by FCDA because of our interest in radiological decontamination. Report is being written by the Corps of Engineers.