Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. What is the first figure you gave on the $60 total? Mr. RANDALL. I do not have the $60 total here. Senator ROBISON. If you run it from $10 to $50, it is $18,000,000. If you run it to $60, maximum, it would be $30,000,000. Mr. RANDALL. The whole thing hinges on what is the average degree of disability. If the average degree of disability is one-fourth, then we must find out what the rate is to be for the one-fourth. In the present Spanish War bill the one-fourth disability is $25, so that would be $300 a year. One hundred thousand of them would be $30,000,000. I can not conceive that the degree of disability would be higher than that. The average present degree of disability in connection with the veterans of the war with Spain is a little over one-half. $32.28 is the average rate of pension now paid for the war with Spain. That indicates a degree of disability averaging a little over one-half. It is inconceivable that the World War men would show an average degree of disability as high as that of the veterans of the war with Spain. Senator BARKLEY. The testimony of General Hines this morning was that 46 per cent of those now on the rolls in the Veterans' Bureau are drawing compensation based on a disability between 10 and 25 per cent. In other words, practically half those now on the rolls are under 25 per cent. Mr. RANDALL. That is the point. Senator BARKLEY. So that if that is true, you can not have an average of much more than that. Mr. RANDALL. I would think it very liberal to estimate on the basis of one-fourth disability. That is 25 per cent, and the rate for that is $25, so that would give you $30,000,000 the first year. The second year it would increase to $105,000,000, which is the cumulate cost of it. Senator ROвSION. Is that on the $60 total? Mr. RANDALL. That is on the $60 total. That is on the basis of the new rates for the war with Spain. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. The second year would be how much? Mr. RANDALL. This is cumulative-adding the $30,000,000 in with it. The second year would be $105,000,000; the next year $180,000,000; the fourth year $240,000,000; and the fifth year $300,000,000, with a total for the first five years of $855,000,000, or an average of $171,000,000 per year. Senator ROBSION. That is with 1,000,000 men on the rolls. Senator CONNALLY. One million men would represent a yearly cost of $171,000,000 on the average? Mr. RANDALL. With 1,000,000 men on the rolls. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. You have not taken into consideration a very important factor in making your estimate, namely, that about 15 per cent of the disabled men of the World War are already on the rolls with service-connection cases. You have proceeded only upon the theory of experience with the Spanish War veterans, where a certain percentage are obtaining a pension because of service connection. Mr. RANDALL. We deducted the two hundred and sixty thousand and odd that were on the roll. That is the method by which we reached the 4,000,000 net World War men who would be eligible under this bill. We have eliminated those who had less than 90 days, and those who had service connection compensation, and those who had died. Senator ROBSION. I would like to have the figures based upon the scale from $10 to $50. Senator CONNALLY. If we put the $10 rate in, your figures would not be changed at all. Mr. RANDALL. I can give you that, Senator Robsion. The first year it would be $18,000,000; the second year $63,000,000; the third year, $108,000,000; the fourth year, $144,000,000; and the fifth year, $180,000,000; a total of $513,000,000. Senator CONNALLY. With 1,000,000 men on the roll. Mr. RANDALL. With a million men on the roll; an average of $102,600,000 per year. That is on the basis of $10 to $50. Senator CONNALLY. Have you the figures on the basis of $10 to $60? Mr. RANDALL. Yes; I have those. Senator CONNALLY. I would like to have those. Mr. RANDALL. I gave you that on the assumption that they were 25 per cent disabled. I have figures on the assumption that they might be one-half disabled. Senator CONNALLY. Suppose we put in this bill an amendment starting them at 10 per cent, with $10, and ending with $60, practically like the Spanish War figures. Can you give us those estimates on that basis? Mr. RANDALL. That is what I have given you. That is what I have to tried to base that on. In other words, assuming that the average disability of the World War men would be one-fourth, and that the number coming in would be as I have indicated through these years, totaling 1,000,000 at the end of five years. Senator CONNALLY. With 1,000,000 men on the roll at the end of five years, with the $60 basis, it would cost only $171,000,000. Mr. RANDALL. That is the idea. Senator CONNALLY. That is for 1,000,000 men. Mr. ROBSION. You are talking about a rate ranging from $10 to $60. Senator CONNALLY. Yes. Mr. ROBSION. You figured on the present Spanish War rate, from $20 to $60, which would raise the minimum rate, and further reduce the cost under your provision. Mr. RANDALL. There is no provision for that. Senator CONNALLY. I know; but we are going to offer an amendment to this bill. Mr. RANDALL. That would reduce it somewhat. It is very difficult to say how much, because, as I say, it all depends upon the degree of disability that is established. Senator CONNALLY. The point I made was that if we inserted the $10 rating that would reduce the 25 per cent average a little, because, as you said a little while ago, a great many men would get $10 and be satisfied with it. If there were no $10 rating, they would get $25. 120887-30-3 Mr. RANDALL. I think that is one of the important factors. Under the general law for Regular Establishment claimants this is the practice of the bureau. A young man comes in with ear trouble, perhaps. He is 25 or 30 years of age. They do not give him as much as that ear trouble might really be worth, because they say "He is going to outgrow it." We have no way to check up on him. If he gets on the roll he stays forever, unless he makes another application and gets another examination and shows that he has been cured, or the degree of disability has been reduced. So, they go on the assumption that if he is not satisfied he will come back. Senator CONNALLY. Give him $10 and perhaps he will be satisfied. Mr. RANDALL. That is the point. That is good administration. Senator LA FOLLETTE. In your judgment, then, this bill would cost less with a provision for a 10 per cent rating than it would with the 25 per cent minimum. Mr. RANDALL. Absolutely. Here is the situation right now with respect to the war with Spain. Out of 185,000 now on the roll, 37,000 of them are on for one-tenth disability. Senator CONNALLY. That is, $20? Mr. RANDALL. What would have happened to those 37,000 if there had not been any one-tenth disability? There are only 37,000 that have one-fourth disability. Then we jump to 44,000 that have onehalf disability. So, you see, there is the wisdom of that fractional rating to start with. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. Do you agree that the existence of this pension law will result in a saving to the Government in the number of cases, and the amount of money that will have to be paid in the future on service-connection cases? In other words, where there is a doubt and there is a disposition to connect the case with the service, they say "We will make it a pension of $60. You had better take that." Mr. RANDALL. If they can establish it without very much trouble. The only trouble is that you are going to have a lot of folks that would not have a service-connection claim. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. The service-connection load is bound to increase. Mr. RANDALL. Yes. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. This pension provision will have a tendency to keep that down. Mr. RANDALL. It will have a tendency to forestall liberalization of the service-connected compensation, and satisfy everybody. Mr. ROBSION. It has been shown by experience with reference to your general law rates, which have not been changed since 1870; because the service law comes along and takes care of those fellows, and they do not come into Congress and ask for liberalization of the general law rate. It has been practically unchanged since 1870. Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. The proportion of veterans of the Spanish War who have sought the general law rate has been diminished. Mr. ROBSION. There are practically none of them. Mr. RANDALL. I think it is vital, in understanding the effect of this bill, to remember that the war with Spain men, whose average age now is about 56 or 57, have been able to establish only a little more than one-half disability, on the average. Thirty-two dollars and twenty-eight cents is their present rate under the act of May 1, 1926. That gives them a possible $50 rate, ranging from $20 to $50, with $72 for men requiring aid and attendance. There are only 2,000 of those out of 185,000. Still, at this late date, they have established only one-half disability, and the Bureau of Pensions is not niggardly or mean in trying to establish the disability. That is the situation. to-day. Of course, you are dealing with World War men, whose average age is 10 years less. Certainly their degree of disability is nowhere near one-half, and one-fourth, in my judgment, is a very liberal estimate. Senator WATSON. Are there any further questions? Senator CONNALLY. I want to congratulate the witness on the clarity of his exposition. Senator WATSON. He has been at it 40 years. Senator LA FOLLETTE. Mr. Chairman, I would like to suggest that it would be a good idea to have this hearing mimeographed and copies furnished to each member of the committee in the morning. Senator WATSON. We are going to have it printed by to-morrow morning. (Whereupon, at 5 o'clock p. m., the committee adjourned to meet to-morrow, Saturday, June 28, 1930, at 10 o'clock a. m.) X |