Available Funds and Man-Years 1969 and Estimates, 1970 and 1971 Item 78,000: : 130,000: : : : Statistical Reporting Service: ..... Amount :Years: Amount Years: Amount Salaries and Expenses.... :$14,843,036:1,275: $16,527,800:1, 321: $17,749,800:1,411 Obligations under other USDA : appropriations: : : : : : : : : : Agricultural Stabilization : and Conservation Service, : for special data on feed grain programs, castor beans, wheat sorghum, wool: and mohair.... Consumer and Marketing Service, for milk price : data in selected states.. : Economic Research Service, : for fertilizer practices, : farm population, cotton, : and crop land data..... : Federal Crop Insurance Cor-: poration, for acreage yield and production data.: National Agricultural 28,100: 26,900: Library, services relative: to the Pesticides Docu : : : 1 Project 16,527,800 PROJECT STATEMENT (On basis of adjusted appropriation) :: : 1970 :: : 1971 1969 :(estimated): Increases :(estimated) 1. Crop and livestock estimates :$14,071,659: $15,800,300:+$1,169,000(1): $16,969,300 2. Statistical research and service............... : :: 659,500: Unobligated balance ......................... costs..... Transfered to GSA Total, appropriation : 727,500: +53,000(2): 780,500 :14,843,036: 16,527,800: +1,222,000 ... : : 111,877: : +9,964: +1,000: 14,853,000: 15,412,800: INCREASES :17,749,800 (1) An increase of $1,169,000 for the crop and livestock estimates consisting of: (a) An increase of $1,050,000 for multi-frame livestock surveys ($250,000 available in 1970). Need for Increase: The increase requested would provide for the expansion of the multi-frame sampling program to a total of 16 important livestock States. Such an expansion would be an important factor in the Agency's continuing efforts to improve the accuracy and dependability of National and State livestock estimates. Congress provided funds in 1970 to initiate the program of multi-frame livestock surveys. Primary emphasis is placed on cattle and hogs. Sound management practice dictates that the total livestock multi-frame sampling program be put into operation in successive steps over time. States other than the 16 programmed will be included in later years. Current plans are to expand to a fully operational program in all States by 1976 subject to the availability of funds. The The livestock industry has experienced dramatic changes in recent years. accelerated trend toward greater specialization and increased size of operation requires increasingly larger outlays of commercial credit. This emphasizes the importance of dependable, reliable data regarding livestock numbers and prospective production. The The Department is aware of the critical demand for improved accuracy of livestock estimates. This became acutely evident in early 1967 due to the necessary 2 percent upward revision of cattle estimates, following the 1964 Census of Agriculture. The revision was within the normal range that might be expected using current methods. However, the industry insists this degree of accuracy is no longer satisfactory and more reliable estimates are needed. This can only be accomplished by newer, more accurate sampling and estimating procedures. expansion of the program to include the 16 States is an essential step toward the correction of a serious problem in estimating cattle and hog numbers. Plan of Work: The 16 States which would be included in the fiscal year 1971 program are: California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming. On January 1, 1969, these States accounted for 53 percent of all cattle in the United States and 81 percent of all hogs. constitute the minimal first stage in the program. They (b) An increase of $39,000 for probability surveys of farm grain stocks ($103,500 available in 1970). Need for Increase: The increase requested would supplement funds provided in the fiscal year 1970 for the initiation of probability surveys of farm grain stocks in the 12 North Central States. This will enable the on-farm component of total grain stocks, in these important grain stock States, to be estimated on the basis of probability samples for each quarterly date. The 12 North Central States usually account for nearly 50 percent of the farm stored barley, about 67 percent of the wheat, over 80 percent of the soybeans, sorghum grain and rye, over 90 percent of the corn and oats and virtually all of the flaxseed. Probability surveys are necessary to increase the accuracy of the farm grain stocks estimates. Due to changes in farm sizes and marketing practices, the reliability of estimates based on current methods is no longer acceptable in major grain storage States. It is extremely important that quarterly farm grain stocks estimates with known statistical reliability be available. Combined with the off-farm stocks estimate, they complete the supply picture. This information along with accurate, complete, and timely information on prospective production, prices, and sales make up the overall information needs for effective competition. (c) An increase of $80,000 for preparatory work on proposed farm operator expenditures survey (No funds available in 1970). Need for Increase: The funds requested would allow preparations for farm operator expenditure surveys to be made. Such surveys would be used to update both the commodity coverage and the weighting factors used in computing the Index of Prices Paid by Farmers. The Index measures change in the prices of goods and services bought by farmers. To accurately provide this measure, both the commodity coverage and the weighting factors for each commodity must be representative of the buying practices of farmers. Because of the rapidly changing buying practices of farmers, the commodity coverage and associated weighting factors soon become obsolete and must be updated. This requires periodic surveys of farmers' buying habits to ascertain the commodities that are important in their purchases, and the relative volume of each purchased. Data generated by these surveys have uses beyond revision of the weights for the Index. Agriculture |