interests generally are very much in need of information on the cost of various agricultural inputs. The Economic Research Service also has an acute need for these data in updating estimates of Farm Income and Expenditures. Plan of Work: The data required to update the weighting system used for the Index of Prices Paid, including Interest, Taxes and Farm Wage Rates, would be obtained by these surveys. A systematic program is needed that would provide for updating the weights used in these indexes at intervals not to exceed 10 years. The latest general revision of the Prices Paid Index was published in January 1959, and was based on an expenditure survey covering the year 1955. It will be 1972 before any survey work can be started on the project. The request of $80,000 for the fiscal year 1971 is for preparatory work necessary for a survey of this magnitude. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is planning a national Consumer Expenditure Survey in 1972 and 1973. There are distinct advantages in having the basic data used by BLS and SRS to develop weights pertaining to the same year. It is anticipated that plans can be developed that will permit BLS and SRS to combine resources for doing the survey of farm operator living expenditures. This should allow some savings compared to the total costs if the two agencies proceeded independently. (2) An increase of $53,000 for statistical research and service consisting of: (a) An increase of $36,000 for remote sensing research ($25,000 available in 1970). Need for Increase: The increase requested would allow an expansion of research and development of statistical techniques for reducing remote sensor and ground truth data to estimates of livestock, crop acreage, and production. For example, individual crops register differently on sensors under varying conditions. Correlations must be made between interpretations of remote sensor "signatures" and "ground truth. Formulae for converting remote sensor data to estimates must be developed and accuracy and costs of such estimates determined. Research involving remote sensing should become an integral part of the SRS research effort in support of the long-term goal of increasing the accuracy and dependability of agricultural statistics. If use of remote sensor data becomes statistically and economically feasible, greater objectivity of measurements, estimates in greater geographic detail, and reductions in reporting requirements on farmers would be among the benefits that could accrue. Plan of Work: This is a part of a Department-wide coordinated program to develop new techniques for remote sensing to benefit Amercian agriculture. The program includes research activities of the Agricultural Research Service, the Forest Service, and the Economic Research Service. State Agricultural Experiment Stations are also assisting in this research. The SRS work is an integral part of the total program. (b) An increase of $17,000 for research to improve agricultural statistics ($383,000 available in 1970). Need for Increase: The increase requested would provide for additional research in advanced statistical methodology. This would help meet the continuing demand for greater accuracy in all the Department's statistical work. Past research in the use of a multi-frame sample design, a new technique of employing suitable lists along with the complete area sample, has led to increased use of the approach. This procedure offers a less costly method of improving the precision of the estimates than the alternative of imreasing the number of sample areas enumerated by personal interview. Plan of Work: Research would be undertaken to apply the multiple frame sampling concept to additional crop and livestock items. STATUS OF PROGRAM The Statistical Reporting Service is the primary collector and publisher of agricultural statistics. It is responsible for statistical reporting and service work. This includes crop and livestock estimates, statistical coordination and improvement, and marketing data surveys. SRS work consists of two major areas. These are: (1) Crop and livestock estimates, and (2) Statistical research and service. CROP AND LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES Current Activities and Trends: This program includes the collection, analysis, and interpretation of basic production and economic data on farming. Also included is preparation of official National and State forecasts and estimates relating to food and agriculture. The estimating program covers the most important aspects of production and marketing. This includes: number of farms and acreage in farm lands; acreages, yields, production, stocks, value and utilization of crops; numbers and production of livestock, poultry and their products; prices received by farmers for products sold and prices paid for commodities and services bought for living and production; farm employment and wage rates; quantities of various foodstuffs in cold storage; other relevant aspects of the agricultural economy; and computation of the parity index, including determining and publishing parity prices for agricultural commodities. The estimates and forecasts are released through about 650 reports each year. The news media and trade press carry most of the data to the public promptly. Several hundred thousand farmers, processors, merchants and others serve as volunteer reporters. Their reports are supplemented by field observations, objective yield measurements, and other data to provide material for reports issued to the public. Long-Range Program for Improving Crop and Livestock Estimates: The principal goals of this program are to (a) increase the accuracy and dependability of National and State data, (b) speed the release and distribution of reports, and (c) provide additional data and services needed for commercially important products. Selected Examples of Recent Progress: 1. Enumerative Surveys: In fiscal year 1969, the December and June Enumerative Surveys were conducted on a fully operational basis in the 48 conterminous States for the second and third times, respectively. The December survey obtained information on livestock, chickens and fall seeding of wheat and rye from a sample of 15,517 area tracts and 14,589 large livestock operators. The sample size of area tracts was reduced by some 3,000 tracts from the previous year, while the number of large livestock operators was increased substantially. The large livestock operators were sent mailed questionnaires, to which about 30 percent responded. A subsample of the non-respondents was then selected for personal interview to obtain data needed to estimate for the non-respondents. The number of large livestock operators reporting was 6,214. This compares with 2,100 a year earlier when only personal interviews were used in the survey. The change resulted in broader coverage of the large operators while fewer personal enumerations were used. Broader coverage, and hence more precise data, was obtained at no increase in cost. The June Enumerative Survey included 16,317 segments, about the same as a year earlier. Procedures similar to those described for the December Enumerative Survey were employed to obtain information for the universe of large livestock and chicken producers. 2. Quarterly Agricultural Labor Surveys: The program of quarterly agricultural surveys to improve the farm labor estimates (employment and wage rates) was continued. Fiscal year 1969 was the first year in which four quarterly surveys of agricultural employment were conducted on a probability sample basis. In addition, the April survey included a sample of the increasingly important stratum of agricultural service organizations. Although these surveys are not yet fully operational, the work provided the opportunity for developing and testing methodology, survey procedures and data processing techniques. 3. Quarterly Grain Stocks Survey: A probability sample survey of farm stored grain was conducted for the first time in April in the 12 important North Central grain storing States. The survey is designed to improve the precision of the farm stored grain stocks estimates. 4. Objective Fruit Counts and Measurements: Objective fruit counts and measurements of rates of growth and droppage were used to forecast production for Florida citrus, California almonds, walnuts, lemons, Clingstone peaches, and grapes and Oregon-Washington filberts. 5. Multiple Frame Livestock Surveys: Work started in fiscal year 1968 in 4 States (Illinois, Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska) to improve the hog and pig estimates was continued and expanded during this year. These States conducted operational multiple frame probability surveys in March and June of 1969 to obtain hog and pig estimates. Missouri and Illinois also conducted this type of survey for September and December 1968. Illinois also obtained cattle estimates from the December 1968 and June 1969 surveys, Estimates from these surveys were available to States and for National Board review within the time frame of established survey and summarization scheduling. These surveys, as well as providing indications of inventory levels, are being used to study operational survey methodology. A multiple frame sample procedure was used in Texas for the December 1, 1968 and June 1, 1969 Livestock Surveys which provided probability indications at the State Crop Reporting District levels. 6. Testing of New Cattle Inventory Classification Questions: Extensive testing of new cattle inventory classification questions was made to implement the plan to change cattle inventory class estimates from a sex and age breakdown to a weight and sex breakdown. Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as part of the December 1968 Livestock Mail Survey, made a split-list mailing of questionnaires using the old and new cattle classification items. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Colorado used a questionnaire with the new cattle classes to survey a small sample on December 1, 1968. Followup interviews of a sample of respondents were made in those States to determine if the new classes were easier to report and how the questionnaire could be improved to more accurately obtain the desired data. The results of these tests indicated that most respondents found it easier to report their cattle inventory broken down by sex and weight. However, some further modifications in the format of the new cattle questions appeared necessary and further testing of the new cattle questions was conducted in April and May 1969. Wisconsin, Mississippi, Kansas, and Utah participated in the April-May test. The results of these tests were put into practice for the June 1969 and December 1969 surveys. 7. Farm Equipment Prices: Wheel tractor prices for 1965-68 were revised to be comparable with the horsepower classification basis currently used by the industry and trade. Tractor horsepower tests conducted by the University of Nebraska are utilized in classifying the various tractors into horsepower groupings. The series has also been expanded to include 70-79 and 90-99 horsepower tractors because of the trend toward use of larger tractors. The basis of reporting self-propelled combine prices was revised to reflect changes in the uses and capacities of such equipment. Reporters are now asked to report prices for low, medium, and large capacity combines, and indicate the most common cutter-bar width sold in each capacity group. The make and model of each combine is also obtained so that the capacity grouping of all combines are the same in all States. The change in procedure is expected to yield a more realistic indication of prices and reduce reported price variations between States. 8. Feed Prices: Pricing of mixed poultry and dairy feeds was changed in 1968 to include pricing on both bulk and bag bases. This resulted in more realistic price reporting for these feeds. Questionnaires for 1970 have been revised to allow for reporting bulk and bag prices on beef cattle and hog feeds. This will reflect price changes related to the changing proportion sold in bulk and in bags. 9. Wool and Mohair Prices: The release date for wool and mohair production and value report was changed to mid-April. This is about three weeks later than previously. The later date permits use of a larger amount of late filed ASCS wool payment applications, which will significantly improve the precision of this report. 10. Long-Range Automatic Data Processing Plan: A Systems and Data Communications Study was completed. Specific plans are being formulated to link field offices and Washington, D. C. in a processing and data communications system that would substantially reduce the time required to issue estimates. 11. Automation of Additional Reports: Progress in automating data processing systems continued in fiscal year 1969. New systems developed during the year allowed conversion of thirteen reports from manual to automated handling. 12. Regional Tree Surveys: The second Regional Fruit Tree Summary was published during the fiscal year. This bulletin summarized data on the number of fruit trees by age and variety for 8 selected Central States Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Tennessee. These surveys are financed by matching Federal and State funds under the AMA program. Questionnaire content is coordinated so that regional totals may be obtained. Fruit tree surveys were conducted during the 1969 fiscal year under the matching funds program in North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico. The State Statistical Offices in Georgia, Louisiana, and Arizona assisted State agencies (Extension Service, Experiment Station, Land-Grant College, etc.) to conduct tree surveys in these three States. 13. Wheat Variety Survey: A wheat variety survey was started during the year. It will include all States except the New England States, Hawaii, and Alaska. The survey will be conducted in cooperation with the Crops Research Division, Agricultural Research Service. It will continue the series of surveys made every 5 years since 1919. Data collected in most States will be for seeded acres only. In some States, however, data on harvested acres, yield, and production will also be obtained. The Agricultural Research Service will summarize the data on seeded acres and prepare a release which will be available by mid-1970. Also many of the State Statistical Offices of SRS will publish State releases in cooperation with State agencies. 14. Usual Planting and Harvesting Dates Bulletin-Commercial Vegetables: Data on the usual planting and harvesting dates for vegetables were revised and published in Agriculture Handbook No. 251. 15. Consumption of Micronutrients: A survey on micronutrients was initiated in 1969. The results were published in the Annual Fertilizer Consumption Report. 16. Flowers and Foliage Plants, Statistical Bulletin No. 442: This new bulletin brings together for easy comparison and analysis the data obtained in 17. recent years on cut flowers and foliage plants. Many earlier annual publications are no longer available for distribution. Season Average Prices Including Price Support Payments: The December Crop 18. Feedlot Size Group Data: Feedlots classified by size and number of cattle marketed were added as a regular part of the January 1 Cattle on Feed Report beginning with the January 1, 1969 release. These data were previously published periodically in the SRS bulletin series. 19. Special Totals of Federally Inspected Slaughter: The increase in the number 20. Elimination of Questions on Manufactured Dairy Products Questionnaires: Monthly and annual questionnaires for the manufactured dairy products surveys were purged of all dairy items not produced in the State in the last 2 years. This has reduced substantially the number of questions on each inquiry and the size of the inquiry. It should be much easier for respondents to fill out. This is in line with our continuing effort to reduce respondent reporting burdens. STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND SERVICE Current Activities and Trends: The major portion of resources utilized in this area is for research and development activities, including design and testing of improved methods and techniques, for the long-range improvement of the Agency's crop and livestock estimates. Other work includes review, coordination, clearance and survey responsibilities carried out for the Department. This includes review of all proposed statistical forms and survey plans requiring Budget Bureau clearance and coordination of all inter- and intra-departmental programs for the improvement of agricultural and related statistics. Also, special surveys are conducted on opinions and attitudes relating to the marketing of farm products. Selected Examples of Recent Progress: 1. Statistical Clearance and Consultation: As the Department's designated liaison agent with the Bureau of the Budget for Federal Reports Act clearance matters, 543 requests for clearance of forms and reporting requirements were handled during fiscal year 1969. In this review, continued strong emphasis was placed on the reduction of the reporting burden on the public. Coordination of the Department's interests in various Census programs was a major activity during the year. |