Cotton

Prices Decline Again

Receipts at 10 Designated Spot Markets, Aug. 1-8, 1924, and Stocks on Aug. 8, 1924, with Comparisons

[Compiled from commercial reports]

Cotton quotations during the week August 4-9 were excited with price changes at times quite sharp. The outstanding feature of the week was the report of the department, issued on August 8, indicating a crop of 12,351,000 bales for the season 1924-25, and, although this forecast was practically in line with the majority of expectations, heavy selling ensued upon its receipt by the trade. On August 8 quotations for future delivery opened practically unchanged as compared with those of August 7, and were quite steady until the crop figures were made known, after which prices broke about 125 points from the opening. October future contracts on the New York Cotton Exchange opened at 28.06¢ and closed at 27.25¢. On August 9 October future contracts on the New York Cotton Exchange closed at 27.33¢ as compared with the high point reached so far for this season of 29.23¢ and the low point of October future contracts on the New Orleans Cotton 27.13¢. Exchange closed at 26.55¢ as compared with 27.52 the close of the previous week.

Southern spot markets reported a slight increase in the volume of transactions due to a more free movement of new cotton in Texas. The average of the quotations for No. 5 or Middling cotton in 10 designated spot markets on August 9 was 28.23 as compared with 29.30 on August 2. Several of the Texas markets narrowed the differences for the higher grades due to the arrival of new cotton.

Reports indicated that a few of the Carolina and New England mills were resuming work on an increased scale and also that both the foreign and domestic dry-goods centers were moving their goods in larger volume. Reports during the week indicated more favorable conditions to the crop in general, the drought having been somewhat broken in Texas.

Closing Future Prices on the Future Exchanges August 9, 1924, with Comparisons

Into sight...

55

68

121 191

206

75

138

54.3

Northern spinners'

takings....

41

22

72

16

19

32

59.3

11,

12.

Southern spinners' takings..

World's visible supply

Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. Cts. 29. 19 29. 50 29. 25 29. 13 28. 25 28. 31 24. 00 24. 13 23. 50 23. 25 (1) 24. 25 29. 00 29. 25 29. 25 29. 13 28. 31 28. 38 24. 25 24. 38 23.88 23. 50 (1) 24.75 28.91 29. 00 29. 00 28. 85 28. 00 28. 08:24. 25/24, 4023. 86 23.75 (1) 24.75 28. 13 28. 50 28. 50 28. 50 27. 63 27. 63 24. 25 24. 25 23.75 23.50 (1) 24.00 28. 46 28. 46 28. 32 28. 23 27. 40 27. 60 23. 75 24. 00:24. 00 23.50 (1) 24.00 29. 00 29. 00 29. 00 29. 00 28. 50 28. 50 23. 75 24. 00:23. 75 23.50 (1) 23.75 29.00 29.00 29. 00 29. 00/28. 25 28. 25 24. 25 24. 25 24. 00 23.50 (1) 24.00 29. 15 29. 50 29. 45 29. 35 28. 50 28. 60 23. 75 23. 90/23. 35 23.00 (1) 24.00 29. 10 29. 85/29, 7529, 65 28. 85 28. 85 24. 25 24. 4023. 90 23.55 (1) 24. 55 29. 60:29. 85/29, 85 29. 85 29. 00 29. 10.24. 40 24. 55 24. 05/23.65 (1) 24. 65

Japan.

China. Spain..

15, 745 68, 485 46, 687 43, 994 17, 526 44, 610

Exports for the week ending August 8 amounted to 15,368 bales, compared with 55,301 bales the previous week, 33,330 bales for the corresponding period in 1923.

Foreign Crops and Markets

Large Reductions in Canadian Crop Yields Forecast

The official forecast of the Canadian wheat crop as of August 11, 1924, shows a reduction of nearly 200,000,000 bushels, or 40.5 per cent, compared with the final estimate last year, according to a telegram received by the United States Department of Agriculture from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The forecast for this year is 282,042,000 bushels, and the final estimate for 1923 was 474,199,000 bushels. Harvesting has not yet begun and final results can not at this time be accurately determined.

In Saskatchewan crop conditions in the southern districts have been improved by rains during the latter part of July but central and northern sections are still showing the effects of drought. Summer fallow crops are standing the drought well, but at best will be short crops in the northern and central sections. About three-fourths of the eat is in head and cutting will begin during the last two weeks of August.

In Alberta the heavy rains during the last week of July were too late to save the wheat crop in the large drought-stricken areas in the southern part of the Province. There will probably be from half to two-thirds crop on summer fallow and in localities especially favored by rain. In the east central and southeastern sections the yields will be very light.

In Manitoba there were heavy rains during July and cool weather. Crops are late but conditions at present are generally favorable and stands more even than usual. A few slight traces

of rust are reported, but damage so far is negligible. Cutting is expected to be general by August 25.

The forecast of flaxseed production is 8,626,000 bushels, compared with 7,139,500 bushels, the final estimate for last year. This is an increase of 1,486,500 bushels, or 20.8 per cent.

A decrease of 185,003,000 bushels, or 32.8 per cent, is shown in the oats forecast, as against the final estimate for last year. The forecast for this season's crop is 378,995,000 bushels, compared with 563,998,000 bushels harvested last year.

The barley crop is forecast at 71,204,000 bushels against 76,998,000 bushels, the final estimate for last year.

Rye production is given as 12,721,000 bushels compared with 23,232,000 bushels produced in 1923.

British Apple Outlook

The English apple crop of 1924 will be much below the 1923 production estimate of 3,608,889 barrels, according to cabled advices from Edward A. Foley, American agricultural commissioner at London. The current crop in the counties of Essex, Lincoln, Cambridge, and Norfolk is 50 per cent below last year. Kent, Middlesex, and Somerset report a 10 per cent decrease and Worcester 30 per cent. Cooking apples are 20 to 30 per cent below the 1923 yield. Cider apples fell off 20 to 40 per cent. Dessert varieties have made a light crop.

June estimates of the Canadian apple crop place yields at 3,716,630 barrels, which is about 16.6 per cent below the 1923 figure of 4,459,850. Fruit crops are largely determined at the time the blossoms fall in the spring. There is little chance, therefore, for a revision of these figures other than downward, either in Canada or England. With fewer Canadian apples offering competition in England and a short domestic crop, the outlook in English markets for American apples is good.

Agriculture Leads Canadian Industries

Agriculture constituted the chief wealth-producing industry in Canada during 1922, the net output being valued at $1,149,000,000, as compared with a total of $1,131,000,000 for manufactures, according to a report by the Dominion Bureau of Statisties. The net value of farm products during that year was 38.8 per cent of the net value of the production of all industries, while manufactured products were valued at 38.3 per cent of the total. The corresponding ratios for 1921 were 38.8 per cent for agriculture and 40.9 per cent for manufactures. In addition to the value of farm products indicated above, forest products yielded a net value of $266,000,000, making the total net value of farm and forest products 48 per cent of the net value of the products of all Canadian industries.

Switzerland an Important Market for Bread Grains

Switzerland, for several decades past, has been of increasing importance as market for bread grains. As consumption has increased with a greater population, production within the country has declined. Conditions of climate and soil, and the general character of the country have been found to be less favorable to profitable crop production than to the dairying and livestock industries. It is not likely that an enlarged grain area will ever be planted in Switzerland or that domestic production will ever be sufficient for home needs.

The difference between domestic production and consumption must necessarily be supplied by importation. With the development and improvement of transportation facilities, foreign countries with lower production costs have been able to compete successfully with Swiss producers. The Swiss people live chiefly upon wheat bread, rye, and barley being of secondary importance. Wheat bread is growing in favor and much less rye bread is now consumed than in former years. Wheat, therefore, is of first importance in the importation of bread grains. During the period 1886 to 1913 imports of wheat into Switzerland increased 80 per cent. The chief sources of supply were Canada, United States, Argentina, Australia, and Russia. The increase in population during this period was 29 per cent. Imports of grain into Switzerland have been officially monopolized since 1915 when war conditions made it necessary for the government to take charge of all available bread supplies. During the war imports fell off heavily reaching their lowest point during 1918. The following table shows the importation of bread grains into Switzerland beginning with 1913:

1 Converted to bushels of grain at the rate of 155 pounds of grain equals 100 pounds of flour.

* Converted to bushels of grain at the rate of 200 pounds of grain equals 100 pounds of grits. Items of preceding columns added in order to give estimate of total requirement of foreign bread grains.

As had already been done before the war, domestic Swiss grain was purchased by the Government and its sale to millers and consumers regulated. From the outbreak of the war, however, until the close of 1920 lower prices were paid for Swiss than for foreign wheat, but since that time the situation has been reversed. Production has been encouraged by fixed purchasing prices of Swiss wheat above those of the world market.

WASHINGTON, D. C.

Index to this issue

Livestock, Meats, and Wool__

Fruits and Vegetables..

Dairy and Poultry....

Grain....

Hay...

Feed

Cotton..

Foreign Crops and Markets..

Review

Page

114

118

121

122 124

125 126

128

Yearlings and handy-weight cattle attracted most attention during week August 11-16, highly finished animals in these There was a seasonal groups frequently topping the market.

increase in receipts of grass cattle and the trend of prices was downward. Hogices at Chicago broke to $9.70, but later returned to the $10 mark. Sheep and lambs were generally 25-50. higher for the week, an unusually brisk demand for feeding lambs being a feature of the market.

Wholesale fresh-meat trade was generally quiet, but price changes were small and infrequent. In the main, Chicago showed more activity and a better tone than was true of eastern markets. Better grades of beef, veal, and lamb were steady to a shade higher, with lower grades barely steady. Pork loins were weak to a shade lower and shoulder cuts firm to somewhat higher.

Butter markets were firmer during the week, August 11-16, although the undertone of the market was more or less nervous. Reports indicated continued heavy production and storage holdings being added to despite the 31,000,000 lbs. surplus on August 1, as shown by the total for the United States. Firm foreign markets have temporarily resulted in some shipments of butter to England.

Cheese markets were easier and trading was lighter. Heavy storage surplus and continued heavy production were factors of importance. Price changes during the week were slight.

The market outlook for late onions does not show any great change from last season, despite the rather unfavorable financial results for holders of onions in the early part of 1924. Plantings in 14 States are just about as great as a year ago, the decreases in California, New York, and Massachusetts being offset by gains elsewhere. The total commercial erop is figured about 25,000 carloads; last season these States marketed in carlots about 21,600 cars. Recent movement of onions has been quite active, Massachusetts furnishinger supplies than any other section. Good demand and a firm tone charac

7667°-24-1

VOL. 2, No. 8

terized the f. o. b. market in the Connecticut Valley. Early estimates show a much larger acreage of Domestic cabbage and slightly decreased plantings of Danish type, thus indicating a possible good season for holders of winter stock. About 175,000 tons of the Domestic cabbage may be used for kraut manufacture. Southwest Virginia, Iowa and Colorado have been chief sources of recent supply, outside of homegrown stock, but the shipping season is late in the West. Prices generally have been lower than at this time last season. Delayed movement of cantaloupes from eastern shipping sections has given prominence to Indiana and California, but the East will soon be active and movement is ready to start in Colorado. Price trends were downward during the week ending August 16. Shipments of Georgia watermelons continued in much heavier volume than last August, but Missouri's output is very light. Values were well sustained as the season wanes. Peach markets closed stronger under decreasing supplies. The week's shipments of 21 products fell off 2,500 cars to a net total of 16,500.

Wheat and corn prices were at new high levels. Wet and cool weather threatened the corn crop and corn prices made rapid advances. Short world crop and high corn prices were the principal strengthening factors in the wheat market. Oats were higher as wet weather delayed threshing. Rye and barley markets continued rather dull.

The hay market continued quiet. There was a good demand for high quality timothy; low grades were in excess of buyers' needs. Alfalfa market was steady with good demand. Prairie market averaged steady in most markets.

Feed prices held firm. The jobbing and speculative demand was fairly good but the consuming demand was of little consequence. Middlings and heavier wheat offals attracted attention as a result of strong corn markets. Oil meals were neglected. Gluten feed prices were advanced $1 per ton. Stocks and the movement were heavy.

Cotton prices again declined during the week August 11-16. October future contracts on the New York Cotton Exchange declined 121 points, closing at 26.12¢, which price was the lowest closing price reached so far this season, and on the New Orleans Cotton Exchange the decline for this option reached 123 points, closing at 25.32¢.

The average price of the quotations for No. 5 or Middling cotton in 10 designated spot markets was 26.94¢ per lb. on August 16, compared with 28.33e on August 9. The decline was attributed to the occurrence of general beneficial showers in Texas during the week, coupled with increased private estimates of the crop, which ranged from 12,500,000 to 13,300,000 bales or about 600,000 bales above previous prevailing trade estimates. 113

Livestock - Meats - Wool

Persistent Demand for Hogs

Demand for weighty grain-fed steers broadened during the week August 11-16, increased activity being traceable to improvement in Kosher demand. Yearlings and handy-weight offerings, however, attracted the most attention, highly finished little steers often being market toppers. Grass-steer prices fluctuated, but the trend was lower at market centers which received a liberal supply of the kind. There were sharp downturns on grass cows at Chicago where many were offered. Trade in stocker and feeder cattle broadened as the condition of the corn crop improved, and the supply of western grass cattle increased.

When too many finishers attempted to sell above $10, hog values grew erratic and the market turned weak, the top on the low day of the week falling to $9.70 at Chicago. Smaller loadings stimulated the general price list, however, and best butchers quickly advanced above $10 again, indicating a persistent demand. A liberal proportion of grassy hogs of practically all weights assisted in depressing the market, trade from all sources developing into a competitive scramble for high killing quality rather than for any particular weight specifications. However, light and handy butchers continued to top the market, shipping demand centering on these kinds.

SHEEP AND LAMBS HIGHER

Sheep and lambs worked higher, largely 25-50¢ at Chicago. Country outlet not only for thin lambs but for feeding sheep and breeding ewes remained broader than the supply. The spread

between fat lambs and thin lambs continued to narrow at some market centers, best 55-lb. feeders bringing $13.25 at Omaha, as contrasted with a top of $13.60 on best fat westerns to killers. Heavy long-fed bullocks topped at $11.20 at Chicago and yearlings reached $11.10, upturns on the better grades of both fed steers and yearlings being 25 although "near-choice" heavy weights often showed more advance. A large proportion of the fed steer and yearling supply sold much more actively than a week earlier at $8.75-$10.25, a liberal quota that had been fed grain for a considerable time bringing $10.50-$10.75. Grassy and short-fed natives at $8.50 down showed emphatic uneveness, most of the handy-weight descriptions of these meeting rather prompt action while rough heavy kinds were draggy. In spite of the better undertone of the general fat steer trade, big weight, rough but often exceptionally fat steers were sluggish at times, indicative of their narrow outlet. The peddling often required to sell rough, heavy steers did not have to be employed to dispose of yearlings and handyweights, the persistent demand for yearlings being broad enough to include even the fed heifer contingent.

MORE RANGE CATTLE COMING

More western grass cattle, from both southwestern and northwestern ranges, were sent to market and the season will soon be on in full blast at Chicago. Killers and feeder buyers competed for the steer end and the price spread was wide as a result of the various degrees of quality and condition. Fleshy 1,266-lb. Montanas sold to killers upward to $8.25 at Chicago, a moderate sprinkling of western grassers and cake-fed Texas cattle bringing $7-$8 at some of the "river" markets, but many light grassers sold downward to $5 inferior southwestern steers of nondescript breeding and in canner flesh often dropping to $3-$3.50.

Countrymen displayed more interest in the better grades of stockers and feeders than in lower grades. A spread of $5-$7 probably took the bulk but meaty westerns got action upward to $7.50-$8.10 at Kansas City, these being suitable for a short turn. Indicating the diversity of the demand on country account, inferior light thin steers sold for grazing purposes downward to $3.50 and below.

Many grassy cows and heifers sold within a price spread of $3.50-$5.50. Grain-fed heifers on the yearling order were taken to fill out a deficient supply of light-weight yearling steers at Chicago, choice long-fed Nebraska heifers averaging 773 lbs. making $10 25. Few fat cows sold above $7 but strictly choice long-fed kinds were quotable upward to $8. Light canners again sold below $2 at some of the markets with cutters

slightly above $3. The general status of the grassy and shortfed cow trade was sluggish and erratic, the dressed trade on lower grades of cow beef being so slow that many carcasses had to be sent to the boners. Downturns on most of the grassy cows at Chicago amounted to 75¢ and in spots more. Bologna bulls had a comparable decline, the practical top on bolognas at Chicago being $4.35 as the week closed. The most active branch of the trade in bovine animals was calves, which, spurred by scarcity and competition, advanced $1.50-$2 and more, packers and small killers paying upward to $12.50 at Chicago as contrasted with $11 a week earlier.

Daily Average Weight and Cost of Hogs Week August 11-16, 1924, with Comparisons

Aug. 11-16, 1924.. Aug. 4-9, 1924. Aug. 13-18, 1923..

Per 100

Per 100

Per 100

Per

100

Per

100

Per 100 Lhs. lbs. Lbs. lbs. Lbs. lbs. Lbs. lbs. Lbs. lbs. Lbs. lbs. 260 $9.45 219 $9.88 223 $9.22 243 $9.31 267 $8.70 254 $8.49 261 9.24 221 9.41 208 9. 19 238 9. 21 271 8. 49 258 8.33 263 9.09 217 9.39 211 8.95 234 9.03 271 8.40 265 8.16 247 9.37 192 9.75 208 9. 22 239 9. 20 276 8.72 263 8.32 246 9.40 208|10.01|| 196 9.09 234 9.59 265 8.82 253 8.59 269 9.03 216 9.98 231 9.47 229 9.61 266 8.70 242 8.64

257 9.27 214 9.71 212 9. 14 237 9.26 269 8.61 256 8.42 254 9.57 212 10. 16 214 9.51 235 9.50 262 8.61 258 8.68 250 7.65 209 8.42 191 7.32 228 7.75 264 7. 10 261 6.92