3.14.4 Cumulative Effects of Proposed Timber Harvest in
Jackson, Klamath and Josephine Sustained Yield Units

In 1978, the Bureau of Land Management prepared an environmental assessing the impacts of a proposed timber harvest from the Josephine Sustained Yield Unit (USDI, BLM 1978a). Since most of the Josephine SYU is in the same timber shed as the Jackson-Klamath SYUs (Beuter 1976) and adjacent to the Jackson SYU, this section analyzes the cumulative effects of the proposed timber harvests in all three units combined. Table 3-15 summarizes both the short-term and the long-term effects by county.

3.14.4.1 Short-term Effects

During the first decade of the proposed timber management plans, 223 MM bd. ft. would be harvested annually. Alternatively, continuation of current management practices would yield an average annual harvest of approximately 274 MM bd. ft. from the three units.

The 51 MM bd. ft. average annual difference in timber harvests would result in a corresponding difference of approximately 260 direct local jobs and 30 non-local jobs. Annual total local employment (direct plus indirect) would be nearly 370 less if the proposed harvests were adopted. The differences in direct employment would amount to about 7 percent of the total employment projected to be supported by logging and primary timber processing within the Medford Timbershed.

Locally, average annual direct income would be $22.1 million compared to an expected income of $26.8 million under current management. This would be about 21 percent less. The difference in total income (direct plus indirect) resulting from the different harvest levels would be approximately $8.3 million.

Average annual public revenues to O&C counties would be an expected $21.1 million from continued current management and $17.2 million from the proposal. This would be an annual difference of about 23 percent. The tax rate equivalence of revenues to compensate for the difference in O&C payments would vary from county to county. However, the average for the O&C counties would be $.11 per $1,000 true cash value.

The proposed timber harvests would have subtle effects on local populations. These impacts would be directly related to employment and would occur primarily in Josephine County with less significant effects in Douglas and Jackson Counties. Population impacts would occur sometime after the employment impacts occur. A "worst case" assessment would assume that all of the 260 individuals who would lose direct local employment would be unable to find alternative local employment. If all of these people migrated out of the area in search of alternative employment, the local population would eventually decline by approximately 650 people (260 X 2.5 workers and dependent population).

Table 3-15

Cumulative Annual Economic Effects of Current and Proposed Timber Management in the Josephine, Jackson, and
Klamath Sustained Yield Units

6/ Percentage distribution of 0&C receipts
1/ Refer to Appendix I for calculation procedure

3.14.4.2 Long-Term Effects

The combined average timber harvests from the Josephine, Jackson, and Klamath SYUS would be higher under a continuation of current management (274 MM bd. ft.) than under the proposed management (211 MM bd. ft.), during the first six decades. After the ninth decade the combined harvest from continued current management (209 MM bd. ft.) is expected to be less than under the proposed management (211 MM bd.ft.). This analysis compares the cumulative long term effects of timber harvest for the first six decades only.

Based on the projected 1990 labor productivity in lumber and the wood products industry (Table 2-16), continued average current harvest levels would result in the local direct employment of approximately 270 more people than would be employed under the proposed annual harvest levels. Total local (direct plus indirect) employment would be about 470 higher under a continuation of current average harvest levels. Total local employment generated by the timber harvests would be 20 percent less under the proposal than under continuation of current management. A comparative breakdown by county is available in Table 3-15.

Generally long-term income impacts would correspond to employment impacts and timber harvest trends. By 1990, total local direct income from continued current management is projected to be approximately $24.8 million compared to $20.6 million from the proposed management and total (direct plus indirect) local income from continued current management would be an estimated $7.3 million higher than from the proposed harvests.

By 1990, average annual public revenue generated by the three SYUS would be approximately $26.9 million and $21.5 million from continuation of current management and the proposal respectively. The proposal would represent a 25 percent decline from revenues expected under current management. The equivalent tax rate necessary to compensate for the difference in revenues would vary from county to county, but would average $.15 per $1,000 true cash value among the O&C counties, Table 3-15.

The differences between the projected cumulative short cumulative short term and long-term impacts are caused in part by an expected decline in labor intensive practices and an expected increase in stumpage prices.

3.14.4.3 Conclusion

In summary, relatively insignificant short-term and long-term changes in timber harvest would occur in the Jackson and Klamath SYUS while substantial changes would occur in the Josephine SYU. Consequently, the environmental statement on the Josephine Sustained Yield Unit Ten-Year Timber Management Plan (USDI, BLM 1978a) analyzes most of the specific economic impacts. Implementing the proposed harvest in all proposed harvest in all three units would intensify the impacts in each county.

IMPACTS ON SOCIAL CONDITIONS

3.15 IMPACTS ON SOCIAL CONDITIONS

This analysis projects social impacts expected from implementing the proposed action. Social values and attitudes are assumed to be affected in the following ways:

A person's attitudes are strongly influenced by material interests: those things felt to be important such as economic income and physical possessions, especially houses and land. Activities which are believed to threaten these interests are likely to be opposed.

Organized groups provide their members with information and shared definitions of the situation which are influenced by and reinforce existing values and attitudes of the members.

Attitudes which are not supported by a personal stake in material interests or by membership in organizations will be most easily influenced by mass media reporting.

Using this framework, it is expected that many people have strong and immediate personal reactions to BLM actions that affect their job situation, business or property values. Other individuals form opinions on the basis of formal positions taken by groups and organizations to which they belong such as Southern Oregon Timber Industries or the Sierra Club. Finally, some people have very little opinion about agency actions, e.g., herbicide use, road closures, or harvest practices, until such actions become controversial or affect them personally.

The population most directly affected by the proposed action would be those who lose or gain employment. The workers who would lose their timber related jobs and those who would fill the forest development jobs are not necessarily interchangeable. Forest development jobs such as planting, thinning and cone collecting have been adopted by larger private forest products companies and, to a lesser degree, government agencies. The general image of this type of work, however, is that it is low paying, dangerous in some seasonal. A planter generally makes between $25 and $50 per day before expenses while a thinner makes $25 to $75 before expenses. Those employed in traditional high-risk logging jobs on the other hand, such as timber fallers, make between $125 to $175 a day. Because of these factors, most of the forest development work is done by young, single people, and it is generally done for only a limited amount of time. Under conditions of extreme hardship, people involved in the more traditional fields of logging and mill work might take such jobs, but they would not do so without a certain amount of resentment and a feeling that they were doing so in desperation. It is to be expected that certain groups (young, inexperienced, possibly countercultural) would experience a higher level of employment than other groups (traditional timber industry workers, described by Stevens 1976). Even a small change in the

employment structure may intensify already existing conflict between individuals in each group.

Social impacts would be somewhat site specific. A number of variables would affect the social impact of a given action. These include visibility of the action, communication with impacted population, negotiation, explanation, receptiveness by BLM personnel to local concern, and adaptability of the impacted population.

3.15.2 Impacts of Proposed Action on Specific Values

People whose first priority is esthetics would probably favor planting and oppose road building and clear cutting. Although specific impacts would depend on the location of the action, salvage cutting and forest regeneration efforts would probably be accepted.

Herbicide application is likely to result in significant organized opposition, especially if such application is on land near residential areas or water supplies. This would result in intensification of the value conflicts between groups and may lead to organized protest, legal action, and/or violence. Rural residential development may be slowed, relocated, or avoided because of its proximity to areas of herbicide application or degraded viewsheds. These reactions would tend to complicate or disrupt the local lifestyles. The area may become less appealing if it is perceived to have lost its esthetic appeal and simplicity of life. Even if these are just perceptions, e.g., if residents think herbicide applications have harmful health effects even if they actually don't, the quality of life in the area would be degraded because of residents' sense of helplessness in controlling their environment and their own lives.

Most persons who relate to the forests in terms of the recreational opportunities would favor additional roads and access to recreational areas. Providing such access would reinforce the recreational value associated with the forests. However, wilderness advocates and some hunters would view additional roads as a potential threat to natural habitats. Those who value the forest's beauty, clean air, and water would oppose herbicide applications and other forest management practices that would affect the esthetic values of the land, e.g., scarification or clearcutting.

3.15.3 Conclusions

The proposal may increase the underlying conflict between people with personal economic interests and those with health, esthetic or recreational interests. The impacts of specific treatments on personal and/or community values would depend in part on the locations of treatment application, the manner in which BLM communicates and negotiates its actions with affected residents, and the adaptibility of those who are affected.