and energy, generation and transmission planning, guidelines for reliable and economic system expansion, minute-to-minute operation and dispatch of all generation and major transmission, accurate billing for all pool transactions.

The concept of NEPOOL is to operate all facilities without regard to ownership, thereby assuring the load total cost of New England consumers. In 1982, NEPOOL savings reached $62,000,000 in which 17,000,000 were generated from transactions with New Brunswick and New York. The 3.7 million megawatt hours of energy purchased from these neighboring pools displaced 6.4 million barrels of oil in New England.

The highest peak load that New England ever experienced was 15,702 megawatts in January 1982, while the highest summer peak was 15,400 megawatts in July 1982. Över the 1963 to 1972 period, the New England average compound load growth was 712 percent, and had this continued, we would have experienced that peak in 1974. The actual average compound load growth over the 1973 to 1982 period was about 1.9 percent. This loss of the equivalent of 10 years load growth is an illustration of the effects of the oil embargo, conservation, and the resulting economic recession during the last decade which is continuing to some extent today.

Price induced conservation by residential, commercial, and industrial customers since 1974 has significantly impacted load growth and eliminated the need to install approximately 10,000 megawatts of generating capacity. Load management by the NEPOOL company has also drastically affected the load level. Reflected in our current load forecast is more than 1,000 megawatts of load management by the year 2000.

The current forecast for electrical load growth through the year 2000 calls for an average annual compound growth of about 1.8 percent for both winter and summer and 2.2 percent for energy. Based on NEPOOL's present schedule of additions, purchases, and retirement, it is expected that adequate reserves to serve the forecasted load and provide for unforseen contingencies will be available to 95, 96 as shown in table 1. Beyond that year, we project we will require additional resources of about 2,000 megawatts to adequately meet the needs through the end of the century.

The energy forecast and source of supply by fuel types is shown in table 2. No major generation is being actively pursued for completion in the 1990's, although several potential projects are under consideration.

Our goal in New England for the last decade has been to reduce dependence on foreign oil. In 1973, 65.5 percent of the electricity was generated by oil. By 1980 we reduced it to 55.6 percent. In 1982 further reduced it to 39.8 percent. Exhibits 1 through 3 dramatically illustrates that oil generation is projected to drop to a low of about 15. percent in contribution in 1990 and subsequently increases to 28 percent by the year 2000. Therefore, we must have additional resources in the 1990's and planning must start soon if we are continuing to meet this objective.

The following NEPOOL units are under construction, Seabrook nuclear units No. 1 and No. 2, and Millstone nuclear unit No. 3. I can't

emphasize enough that they must be finished along with 1,600 megawatts of future coal conversion if we are to achieve the reduction in oil consumption highlighted in my exhibits.

I mentioned earlier our plans to complete an interconnection with Hydro-Quebec. We finished negotiations in March of this year with Hydro-Quebec, and I have given you some details on page 5. We are in negotiations now with Hydro-Quebec for phase 2 which would increase the capacity to 2,000 megawatts. We are also exploring other possible purchases which have been recently offered such as capacity for New Brunswick and coal plants in New York. New England has several potential coal plants of our own including Sears Island and Canal No. 3 project, both which could be operational by 1995.

NEPOOL will examine every possible alternative for meeting expected capacity needs during the 1990's. Alternatives include but are not limited to biomass, cogeneration, fuel cells, small hydro, trash burning, solar, wind, and advanced coal technology. These alternatives could possibly contribute as much as 1,500 megawatts of capacity through the New England system by the year 2000. They will be evaluated on their own merits, but must compete economically against the other alternatives that are available and have been cited above.

There exists in the NEPOOL system 200 megawatts of deactivated oil-fired capacity that could be returned to service if needed and the existing NEPOOL generating unit retirement plans include an additional 1,900 megawatts of oil-fired generation that could be continued if necessary. However, many units will be over 50 years old by the year 2000 having long exceeded their expected useful and efficient service life.

We believe it is important to explore all opportunities for power development, especially in the Northeast area where we have been overly dependent on fossil fuel. In planning for the future, we must seek both additional resources within our own system and strong transmission interconnections with other systems. Only through strong interconnection can we take advantage of regional diversities including hydro potential weather, tides, daylight, and so on. A series of such interconnections where large movements of power can take place in a reliable manner over great distances could result in substantial savings to our customers. We encourage the committee's further study of the environmental effects of the Canadian tidal power project. We must do our homework now if we are to make the wisest choice of resources for the future.

I hope this information, Senator, will be of assistance to you and your committee. Again, I thank you for your time, and I appreciate the opportunity to be with you this afternoon.

Senatr MITCHELL. Thank you, Mr. Otness. Your comments are very useful. Mr. Ishkanian.

STATEMENT OF MARK ISHKANIAN, NATURAL RESOURCES
COUNCIL OF MAINE

Mr. ISHKANIAN. I would like to thank you for the opportunity to express viewpoints of the Natural Resources Council, a private citizens conservation organization based here in Augusta.

It has been suggested to me on a number of occasions that the Fundy tidal project is Canada's means of seeking revenge upon the United States for millions of tons of sulfur dioxide we dump on eastern Canada each year in the form of acid rain. While Maine, as a victim of acid rain pollution itself can certainly sympathize with the viewpoints, we feel their efforts are somewhat misdirected. Instead of flooding the Maine coastline, they should try to raise the level of Lake Erie enough to threaten the Midwest. Then we may get somewhere in solving the acid rain problem.

On a more serious note, the council has a strong interest in the use of tidal power as an alternative energy source to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear power. We have closely followed the developments of the Cobscook Bay and Halfmoon Cove tidal projects and maintain an open mind on these projects pending the availability of detailed environmental studies, but the magnitude of the Minas Basin project and the tremendous environmental uncertainties surrounding it cannot but help alarm conservation interests. At stake are Maine's rich coastal and marine resources-a unique part of our natural heritage and essential components of our State's economy and a way of life.

The Gulf of Maine is a vast, complex and poorly understood ecosystem. Experts here today have only been able to hint at the environmental implications of the Fundy tidal project. They readily admit the difficulty in predicting with any accuracy the full impacts of the project. It is an unfortunate dilemma of these times that our ability to manipulate the world environment is progressing at a far more rapid rate than our ability to understand the implications of these actions. Acid rain, hazardous waste, and toxic pesticides are but a few of yesterday's mistakes that we are paying for today. But even when we look at the few impacts of the Minas Basin project what we can predict today with some certainty, the council finds compelling arguments against its construction.

The devastating effect on the shad fishery that has already been mentioned and the work that Dr. Michael Dadswell has done in discovering that 10- to 40-percent mortality rate would occur with shad over 1 year and a potential 40- to 70-percent mortality rate of the shad population over a 10-year period are cause enough to look at this project seriously.

Second known impact of the Fundy project which is of great concern to the council is the inundation and accelerated erosion of Maine sand beaches and dunes. For close to a decade, the Natural Resource Council has been a strong voice advocating the wise management of our sand dune systems. We have been involved in dozens of sand dune cases before the Department and the Board of Environmental Protection.

Just a few weeks ago the State of Maine took a big step forward by implementing new regulations which will improve the protection of our sand beaches from inappropriate development. All of these gains in past years are overshadowed by the potential consequences of the Minas Basin project.

The Bigelow lab study estimates that some beaches in southern Maine would retreat as much as 60 feet and severe storms causing extensive beach erosion would be more than double in frequency.

To understand the full implications of these impacts, one must first understand our sand beaches today. These beaches, while comprising only a small fraction of the State's overall coastline, are a major recreational, economic, and ecological resource. Even now our 37 miles of sand beaches are a highly stressed ecosystem. Over 60 percent of our beaches are developed and much of this development has occured in a manner which has accelerated erosion. Each summer millions of people descend upon the beaches taking their toll on vitally important dune vegetation and critical wildlife. Increased tidal levels and storm surges created by the Fundy project will fundamentally change the character of our southern coastline, swelling up sections of beach to say nothing of the houses built upon them. This, in turn, will concentrate human pressures on the remaining sand beaches and dunes leading to increased destruction of these fragile areas.

For years we have encroached upon these fragile sand systems from the land. If we now encroach upon them from the sea, we may find little left to enjoy.

But what alarms the council most about this project is the multitude of unanswered questions and the questions which haven't even been thought of yet. Shifts in circulation patterns, decrease in surface water temperature, salt marsh flooding, climatic changes, increased red tide occurrence, and fluctuation in primary productivity are all areas of great uncertainty. How these changes go together effect the distribution and abundance of our fisheries is of utmost importance, yet it appears to be beyond the tools of modern day marine science.

Only a few pieces of the Fundy Bay tidal project puzzle are in place but already a picture of unprecedented environmental and economic destruction of our ocean and coast is appearing, understanding that many of the predicted impacts of the project are based on Dr. Greenberg's model, the council recommends further research to substantiate and refine Dr. Greenberg's work.

Additionally, we recommend that the Canadians explore other smaller scale tidal projects options whose impacts we would expect to be of smaller magnitude and less far reaching. With our experience in tidal power production still in its infancy, it seems prudent to develop several small stations and evaluate their impact prior to consideration of such a gargantuan affair as the Minas Basin.

Thank you, Senator Mitchell, for the opportunity to present the Natural Resources Council's views on the Fundy tidal project. Senator MITCHELL. Thank you, Mr. Ishkanian.

Colonel Sciple.

STATEMENT OF COL. CARL B. SCIPLE, DIVISION ENGINEER, NEW ENGLAND DIVISION, CORPS OF ENGINEERS

Mr. SCIPLE. Senator Mitchell, I'm Carl Sciple, division engineer for the New England Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It is a pleasure to appear before your committee today to discuss the items in the Bay of Fundy. Senator Stafford asked our Chief of Engineers, General Bratton to discuss studies that have been conducted by the corps relating to tidal power development in the Bay of Fundy and the Gulf of Maine together with an outline of work still to be accomplished

by the corps. The chairman also asked a discussion of studies that should be reasonably undertaken together with the discussion of the studies that would be within the abilities of the corps to analyze the environmental impact of the proposed Canadian Bay of Fundy project in the United States.

On the first request, to save time, I would like to provide for the record a written statement discussing the corps' activities on power development in Passamaquoddy and Cobscook Bays.

Senator MITCHELL. Thank you. That will be placed in the record. (See p. 272.)

Colonel SCIPLE. Just by way of general comparison, the largest of the alternatives that the corps evaluated at Cobscock Bay would generate 790 million kilowatt-hours annually. Proposed Canadian development in Minas Basin is reported to be able to produce about 12 billion kilowatt-hours. It is a factor of about 15. That brings us to the second question that I was asked to respond to; mainly, the analysis of the environmental impacts of the proposed Canadian Bay of Fundy project on the United States.

The proposed Canadian development in the Minas Basin could create problems through an increase in tidal range extending from Maine southward to Cape Cod. It's been reported that this change in the tidal range could vary from 6 to 18 inches. If this is true, the raising of mean high water levels could seriously impact on the manmade structures along the coastal regions as a possibility of damaging the fragile natural ecosystems recently protected by the Congress when they passed their barrier island bill.

There could be a physical impact on navigation projects if the mean water levels are lowered. For instance, with the difference of 12 inches, commercial vessels which fully use the available depth would need to enter the harbor light loaded or wait for higher tides, resulting in a decrease in efficiency and an increase in cost to business and consumer alike.

There are about 125 projects of the New England Division of the Corps which could be affected by these tidal changes. In addition, State, local, and private interest have also constructed many other channels and facilities which could be affected.

A grave concern would be the impact of public and private shorefront development. Significant erosion could occur that would affect homes, cottages, hotels, and many miles of beaches.

In order to evaluate these problems, studies that should be undertaken at this time relating to the Bay of Fundy power development, should initially focus on verifying the amount of tidal surges that could be expected to occur and what natural and manmade resources could be threatened by such shifts. This means a reevaluation of the previous mathematical model which was first used to predict tidal stage changes. The Corps is a leader in tidal hydraulics and has outstanding expertise in the sophisticated state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques and could provide assistance in this area. Upon verification of the analytical approach used in the previous model, attention would then shift to determining the necessary environmental baseline requirement needed in the mathematical model. Information would have to be drawn not only from the Corps