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Chapter 16. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STATISTICS

Science and technology (S&T) are implicitly embedded in much, if not most, of the data collected by the Federal Government. This is not surprising, considering that science and technology are deeply ingrained in our culture and thus pervade almost all elements of our national fabric. Therefore, it would be conceptually incorrect to place all statistics related to science and technology into a single functional area. Science and technology provide the tools with which we as a Nation achieve our objectives and these objectives are and should be the appropriate functional categories used to describe the Federal statistics program.

However, there is one set of science and technology statistics which is a distinct, conceptually cohesive, functional group, namely the one dealing with the magnitude and nature of American science and technology. These statistics cover primarily the inputs such as human resources, funds, and institutions as well as some of the outputs attributable solely to science and technology activities.

As will be seen from the subsequent enumeration of Federal science and technology statistical programs, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is the principal generator and compiler of such data. This is in line with the Foundation's statutory authority, the National Science Foundation Act of 1950, and subsequent amendments which authorize and direct NSF:

... to maintain a current register of scientific and technical personnel, and in other ways to provide a central clearinghouse for the collection, interpretation and analysis of data on the availability of, and the current and projected need for, scientific and technical resources in the United States.

... to initiate and maintain a program for the determination of the total amount of money for scientific research received by each educational institution and appropriate nonprofit organization in the United States from agencies of the Federal Government, and to report annually thereon to the President and the Congress.

By Executive order, NSF has also been assigned focal agency responsibility for the "development and analysis of information on the supply, demand, utilization, and education of scientific and technical personnel."

Users

Science and technology statistics, as defined above, are utilized by a variety of organizations. The Federal Government is one of the principal users since this information is required for the development of Federal science and technology policy. Organizations in the Executive Office of the President that extensively use S&T statistics include the Office of the President's Science Advisor, the Science and Technology Policy Office, and the Office of Management and Budget. In addition, agencies and departments that are heavily involved in science and technology related activities make extensive use of S&T statistics. These include the National Institutes of Health, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Defense, the National Science Foundation, and the new Department of Energy. Congress is also a heavy user of S&T statistics, especially the committees that cover the activities of the agencies and departments listed above and those that deal with S&T-related topics such as energy or the environment.

The private sector requires and uses S&T statistical information. The higher education community, which has the responsibility for the training of new scientists and engineers, requires continually updated data pertaining to scientific and engineering human resources-supply, utilization, graduate student support, enrollments, and so forth. Furthermore, since this sector receives a significant amount of Federal research and development (R&D) funds, it is also interested in statistics relating to these financial resources. Industry, the principal performer of R&D, is a heavy user of S&T statistics, especially those dealing with R&D funding. Besides these institutional users, individual researchers in the science policy area depend on federally generated S&T statistics.

Statistics on Scientific and Technical

Personnel

This review examines data collection activities of the Federal Government in the area of scientific and technical personnel, and is divided into two major sections. The first is concerned with a description of responsible agencies and core programs. The second is concerned with gaps and limitations in Federal statistics for scientific and technical personnel. (The reader should also see the comprehensive treatment of manpower statistics in the Framework chapter on labor statistics.

Responsible Agencies and Core Programs

Statistics on scientific and technical personnel may be classified according to their primary concern with utilization, supply, or characteristics. Utilization statistics include such items as number employed, in total and by occupation, employer, location, industry, and the relationship or utilization of scientific and technical personnel vis-a-vis other workers in specific industries and economic sectors.

Statistics on the supply of scientific and technical personnel are concerned with the number of persons trained in science or engineering, the number of degrees awarded annually in science and engineering, migration, and the mobility of scientific and technical personnel into and out of the total personnel pool and between specific fields. Supply statistics also cover such variables as attrition rates from the labor force, fungibility (substitution) of persons from one occupation or field to another in the science and engineering labor force, and motivational factors leading to careers in science and engineering.

Statistics pertaining to the characteristics of scientific and technical personnel include demographic and economic elements such as age, education, race, sex, income, geographic location, employment status and work activity.

National Science Foundation

The NSF has primary responsibility within the Federal Government for the collection and analysis of statistical information on scientific and technical personnel. These activities are carried out by the Division of Science Resources Studies. The data and analyses are published in three summary report series: Composite Report of the Manpower Characteristics System, National Patterns of R&D Resources, and Science Indicators.

The major NSF vehicle for developing information on the demographic and economic characteristics of scientific and technical personnel is the manpower

characteristics system. This system was instituted in 1972 and became fully operable in 1974. It has three components, each designed to measure the characteristics of a particular segment of the scientific and technical labor market. The first component is concerned with the characteristics of doctoral scientists and engineers, and is obtained by a sample survey selected from the doctorate roster maintained for NSF by the National Academy of Sciences. Doctoral data are published periodically in Highlights and Reports of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers. The second component is the National Sample of Scientists and Engineers, maintained by the Census Bureau for NSF. This allows for surveys every two years of a sample of scientists and engineers identified as members of the science and engineering populations in the 1970 decennial census. Information collected in these surveys is published in Highlights and Reports of the National Sample. The third component is a survey of new entrants, designed to obtain data on the characteristics of recent graduates entering the labor force since 1970. This survey is conducted for NSF by private contractors. Analyses and tabulations of these data are published in Highlights of New Entrants to the Science and Engineering Labor Force.

The manpower characteristics system develops information every two years for scientific and technical personnel on sex, race, age, highest degree, employment status, field of science or engineering, primary work activity, type of employer, geographic location, and other characteristics.

NSF collects statistics on the utilization (employment) of scientific and technical personnel in a number of sectors, including universities and colleges, nonprofit organizations, government, and private industry. Data for the university and college sector include utilization information by field of science, employment status, sex, type of institution, educational attainment, and major function— teaching, research, and so on. Data are also collected on the number of and sources of support for scientists and engineers holding postdoctoral appointments. Estimates of the full-time equivalent number of scientists and engineers engaged in R&D in private industry are collected for NSF by the Census Bureau on an annual basis. These estimates are available for major industries within the private sector, and characteristics descriptive of employers, such as size of firms, employment, source of funds and total R&D expenditures. R&D manpower information is also collected. Information on the Federal employment of scientific and technical personnel is developed by NSF based on data from the Civil Service Commission and is published in Reviews of Federal Scientific and Technical Personnel. In ad

dition, occasional surveys are conducted on employment in nonprofit institutions and in State and local governments. Recently, NSF has provided support to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to help expand BLS's occupational employment survey program in order to obtain estimates of the employment of scientific and technical personnel by occupation and detailed industry within the private

sector.

Basic data on the number of students and graduates majoring in science and engineering, by field and degree level, are collected by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

Each year, NSF surveys collect information on the support of graduate students in scientific fields. These surveys also produce graduate enrollment data as a byproduct. Data are collected on sources of support, and types of major support, by sex and citizenship

status.

NSF supports and is the operating agency for the doctoral roster maintained for NSF, and for the Office of Education, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Endowment for the Humanities by the Committee on Human Resources of the National Academy of Sciences. The doctoral roster is based on data collected in an annual survey of earned doctorates. Information is provided for the detailed field of science, and for sex, race, citizenship status, and martial status. In addition to the basic demographic characteristics, data are developed on planned employment or postdoctoral study plans, and on the time lapse from bachelor degree to doctorate degree.

The data base on supply is augmented by information on immigrant scientists and engineers developed by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Based on NSF analyses, these data serve as inputs to the estimates of supply and utilization and are presented in Highlights of Immigration of Scientists and Engineers.

Other Federal Agencies

Various other Federal agencies collect and analyze labor, demographic, education, and social statistics. Although some of these Federal data systems include information on scientific and technical personnel, none are primarily designed to collect data for this segment of the population. The scientific and technical personnel components of major Federal data systems are outlined below. These systems include the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census, the National Center for Education Statistics, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Department of Energy.

The BLS, Department of Labor, maintains two data bases that include information on scientists and engineers. The Current Population Survey (CPS) is conducted monthly for BLS by Census in approximately 55,000 households throughout the United States. This survey supplies numerous statistics on employment, unemployment, and labor force status, as well as extensive data on demographic, occupational, and industry characteristics. Although adequate for the purposes for which the data are collected, the sample design and survey size do not generally permit the publication and use of data pertaining to scientific and technical personnel. Monthly unemployment rates for engineers, however, can be obtained from the CPS. Annual estimates of persons employed in selected science and engineering occupations are also available.

The CPS uses self-identification to classify persons occupationally; this classification differs from the NSF manpower characteristics system, which uses additional variables such as education to classify persons into various scientific and engineering occupations.

The BLS occupational employment survey is a Federal-State program designed to provide employment estimates for detailed occupations in detailed industries. For scientific and technical occupations, data also are collected on the number employed in R&D activities. BLS has received support from NSF since 1977 to help expand this system to all States and provide aggregate U.S. employment estimates for scientific and technical occupations.

In addition to the CPS, the Census Bureau collects a wide range of data on the labor force status and the economic and demographic characteristics of persons in scientific and technical occupations, as part of the decennial census. Again, data are collected using a "working as" or self-identification occupational classification.

The NCES in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare collects data on earned degrees and on students enrolled in graduate programs by specific field of science and technology, and by sex, race, and geographic location of schools. Information on enrollments and earned degrees provides basic inputs to the NSF system for estimating the supply of scientific and technical personnel. The higher education surveys also provide an educational context for assessing trends in enrolIments in specific fields, in comparison to other disciplines.

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in the Public Health Service is the locus for health manpower statistics in the Federal Government.

Some persons in the health field are engaged in research; they are, therefore, also included in the national science and engineering statistics.

The Department of Energy collects data on the employment of scientific and technical personnel in the nuclear energy field. In addition, programs are underway to develop data bases on the numbers of personnel, including scientists and engineers, engaged in other areas of energy development and utilization.

Statistics on Scientific and Technical Personnel-
Limitations and Data Gaps

A number of criteria can be employed to assess the adequacy of Federal statistics on scientific and technical personnel. These criteria include timeliness, quality, comparability, and the relevancy of the data to the needs of policymakers and other users, both currently and in light of anticipated needs.

This review does not attempt to list all possible "gaps" and limitations in the data. The mere fact that certain data elements are not available does not constitute a gap or limitation. Gaps and limitations exist only to the extent that they affect the utility of current data to actual or potential users, or when the absence of information significantly limits policymakers in their decision processes.

Thus, any discussion of the adequacy of Federal data on scientific and technical personnel must revolve around the uses of the data. For example, data on national levels of employment and unemployment are collected and reported monthly because such data are considered to be important in monitoring our economic well-being and are used as key economic indicators. How frequently are monthly data needed on the employment and unemployment levels of scientific and technical personnel? Data on unemployment of scientific and technical personnel, with the exception of engineers, are available only once every two years. This would seem adequate for periods of relatively low unemployment. In the past, when technical manpower unemployment increased significantly, a special one-time survey of current unemployment was carried out by NSF. However, this seems insufficient and a system should be developed to measure technical unemployment more frequently during periods of high unemployment or rapid economic change.

Related to the above limitation is the current inability to determine the labor market experience of recent college graduates who major in scientific and technical subjects. Such data could serve as an early warning system, alerting planners and educators to

possible labor market problems for all scientists and engineers. The availability of these data could also be helpful in the development of career guidance programs and science education policy. NSF's surveys of new entrants attempt to meet these needs; results of these surveys are available every two years.

Serious data gaps also exist with respect to the utilization of women and minorities in science and engineering. Data on sex and race are developed as part of the NSF manpower characteristics system. Since data on the utilization of scientific and technical personnel are collected by sample surveys, extensive or detailed tabulation may raise questions as to the statistical reliability of specific data. This is a complex problem involving trade-offs between benefits and costs. Thus, a sample may be adequate for analysis of data on female scientists by field, but inadequate for an analysis by field and race. Data on employment of scientific and technical personnel by detailed industry collected by BLS are not available by demographic characteristics such as race and sex.

Users of NSF data have consistently requested utilization data analyzed by finer field or specialization classifications than is currently available. Although important to an understanding of the utilization and characteristics of scientists and engineers, such data also are needed to better understand the dynamics of the scientific and technical labor market. Lack of these data inhibits the analysis of supply by obscuring mobility patterns and supply response to changes in relative wages.

Data are also lacking on the possible underutilization of scientific and technical personnel, and on the related question of the employment of persons trained in science and engineering in "nontraditional" fields. However, measurements of underutilization are difficult since subjectivity is often a controlling factor. The extent of the utilization of scientific and technical personnel in nontraditional fields-especially at the Ph.D. level— has far-reaching implications for science and science education policies.

Scientific and technical manpower data developed by NSF and others contain little if any information on the utilization of social scientists in the private sector. Recent NSF efforts in developing the manpower characteristics system represent a start in overcoming this shortcoming. Much work, however, remains to be done. Particular problems center around defining and measuring the utilization of social scientists in the private sector.

The number of degrees awarded in the social sciences has been increasing at a rapid rate, and the current inability to adequately measure the utiliza

tion of persons trained in the social sciences understates the magnitude of the scientific and technical population. In addition, this gap prevents the identification of possible problem areas in the social science fields or areas of opportunity. This gap is especially serious since increasing emphasis is currently being placed on "people-oriented" R&D, the type of work frequently performed by social scientists.

The analysis of scientific and technical manpower is limited by lack of information on the utilization of technicians and technologists, especially in the private sector. NSF is taking steps to obtain the needed utilization data as part of its support to BLS.

Data on the utilization of scientific and technical personnel in State and local governments and nonprofit organizations are collected on an infrequent basis. The last survey of the utilization of scientific and technical personnel in State governments was for 1972-73; for local governments, the latest data are for 1968-69; and in nonprofit organizations, the latest data are for 1973. This is particularly troublesome because of the rapid growth in State and local government employment in recent years. Statistics available on so infrequent a basis limit the analysis of the utilization of scientific and technical personnel, and may mask significant trends in utilization. The lack of data also presents problems in identifying both problem areas as well as areas of opportunity.

Also lacking are measures of the quality of our scientific and technical personnel. The scientific and technical labor force is increasingly better educated in terms of length of education and training. However, it is not clear that there is a uniform relationship between years of education and quality of the work force. The issue of quality is complicated by problems associated with measuring the output of scientific and technical personnel and by the lack of suitable quantitative measures.

Data relating to the impact of technology on the utilization of scientific and technical personnel needs to be improved if current utilization patterns are to be understood and future utilization levels projected. Related to the above concern are data needs to measure the changing job content of various scientific and technical occupations.

Few data are available on the impact of productivity on the utilization of scientific and technical personnel, and the contribution of these personnel to changes in productivity.

The limited availability of certain data elements may be more serious. For example, there is a lack of

data on retraining of scientists and engineers, and on the extent and nature of informal training received by these workers. Additional data are needed on the attrition of the scientific and technical work force. More needs to be known about death, retirement and other separations from the labor force to help develop sound supply-demand analyses and projections. The need for better attrition data is especially critical to an analysis of the need for scientists and engineers in universities and colleges.

The entire field of statistics on scientific and technical manpower is additionally complicated by the lack of a uniform taxonomy for scientific and technical manpower. Without a uniform taxonomy, statistics developed by one agency may not be of use to another, thereby reducing the effective utilization of available information. In 1966, NSF was directed by OMB to develop standard concepts and definitions for scientific and technical manpower. Although concepts and definitions have been developed by NSF, in consultation with other interested public and private parties, a uniform taxonomy is not in general use.

One of the most serious limitations in developing a fully operational system is the inability to translate a data base into a dynamic system suitable for input to policy decisions. Only limited progess has been made in measuring the effects of Federal programs on scientific and technical personnel. By imposing regulations and supporting R&D, science education, and alternative opportunities, federal agencies influence the career choice, training, and employment of scientists and engineers. NSF has funded some studies to assess the impact of energy and environmental programs on the employment of scientific and technical personnel, but a comprehensive system which would require manpower impact assessment by all Federal agencies has not been developed.

Financial Statistics on Science and
Technology

Science and technology financial data collected and maintained on a nationally aggregated basis. within the Federal Government are currently limited to research and development and, to a lesser extent, scientific and technical information activities. Studies of the financing of R&D activities are principally concerned with the flow of funds among the four economic sectors-Government, industry, universities and colleges, and other nonprofit institutions-between the sources and performers and with selected characteristics of R&D activity. These data serve a wide range of needs and interests

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