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Rising Above The Gathering Storm
Energizing and Employing America for a

Brighter Economic Future

Committee on Prospering in the

Global Economy of the 21st Century:
An Agenda for American Science and Technology

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

PRE-PUBLICATION VERSION

February 2006 Edition

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,
THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING, AND

THE INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their
special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the National Academies. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and
do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for
the project.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-10045-3

For more information about the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, see
http://www.nationalacademies.org/cosepup.

Available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Lockbox 285,
Washington, DC 20055;(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan
area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu

Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-acadomios.org

COMMITTEE ON PROSPERING IN THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE (Chair), Retired Chairman and CEO, Lockheed Martin
Corporation, Bethesda, MD
CRAIG BARRETT, Chairman of the Board, Intel Corporation, Chandler, AZ
GAIL CASSELL, Vice President, Scientific Affairs, and Distinguished Lilly Research Scholar
for Infectious Diseases, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN
STEVEN CHU, Director, E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
ROBERT GATES, President, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
NANCY GRASMICK, Maryland State Superintendent of Schools, Baltimore, MD
CHARLES HOLLIDAY JR., Chairman of the Board and CEO, DuPont Company,
Wilmington, DE
SHIRLEY ANN JACKSON, President, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY
ANITA K. JONES, Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Engineering and Applied Science,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, Sackler Foundation Scholar, Rockefeller University,
New York, NY
RICHARD LEVIN, President, Yale University, New Haven, CT
C. D. (DAN) MOTE JR., President, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
CHERRY MURRAY, Deputy Director for Science and Technology, Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, Livermore, CA
PETER O'DONNELL JR., President, O'Donnell Foundation, Dallas, TX
LEE R. RAYMOND, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Irving, TX
ROBERT C. RICHARDSON, F. R. Newman Professor of Physics and Vice Provost for
Research, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
P. ROY VAGELOS, Retired Chairman and CEO, Merck, Whitehouse Station, NJ
CHARLES M. VEST, President Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
MA
GEORGE M. WHITESIDES, Woodford L. & Ann A. Flowers University Professor, Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA
RICHARD N. ZARE, Marguerite Blake Wilbur Professor in Natural Science, Stanford
University, Stanford, CA

Principal Project Staff
DEBORAH STINE, Study Director
PETER HENDERSON, Senior Program Officer
JO HUSBANDS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREL HAAK, Program Officer
TOM ARRISON, Senior Program Officer
DAVID ATTIS, Policy Consultant
ALAN ANDERSON, Consultant Writer
STEVE OLSON, Consultant Writer
RACHEL COURTLAND, Research Associate
NEERAJ P. GORKHALY, Senior Program Assistant
JOHN SLANINA, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow
BENJAMIN NOVAK, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow
NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor
KATE KELLY, Editor

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND PUBLIC POLICY

GEORGE M. WHITESIDES (Chair), Woodford L. & Ann A. Flowers University Professor,
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
RALPH J. CICERONE (Ex officio), President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington,
DC
UMA CHOWDHRY, Vice President, Central Research and Development, DuPont Company,
Wilmington, DE
R. JAMES COOK, Interim Dean, College of Agriculture and Home Economics,
Washington State University, Pullman, WA
HAILE DEBAS, Executive Director, Global Health Sciences, and Maurice Galante
Distinguished Professor of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, CA
HARVEY FINEBERG (Ex officio), President, Institute of Medicine, Washington, DC
MARYE ANNE FOX (Ex officio), Chancellor, University of California, San Diego, CA
ELSA GARMIRE, Professor, School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH
M.R.C. GREENWOOD (Ex officio), Provost and Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs,
University of California, Oakland, CA
NANCY HOPKINS, Amgen Professor of Biology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA
WILLIAM H. JOYCE (Ex officio), Chairman and CEO, Nalco, Naperville, IL
MARY-CLAIRE KING, American Cancer Society Professor of Medicine and Genetics, University
of Washington, Seattle, WA
W. CARL LINEBERGER, Professor of Chemistry, Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
RICHARD A. MESERVE, President, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC
ROBERT M. NEREM, Parker H. Petit Professor and Director, Institute for Bioengineering and
Bioscience, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, Retired Sector Vice President for Integrated Solutions, Science
Applications International Corporation, San Diego, CA
ANNE PETERSEN, Senior Vice President, Programs, W. K. Kellogg Foundation,
Battle Creek, MI
CECIL PICKETT, President, Schering-Plough Research Institute, Kenilworth, NJ
EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Professor and Chair, Department of Biomedical Informatics,
Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY
HUGO SONNENSCHEIN, Charles L. Hutchinson Distinguished Service Professor, Department
of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
SHEILA E. WIDNALL, Abby Rockefeller Mauze Professor of Aeronautics, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA
WM. A. WULF (Ex officio), President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC
MARY LOU ZOBACK, Senior Research Scientist, Earthquake Hazards Team, US Geological
Survey, Menlo Park, CA

Staff
RICHARD BISSELL, Executive Director
DEBORAH STINE, Associate Director
LAUREL HAAK, Program Officer
MARION RAMSEY, Administrative Coordinator
CRAIG REED, Financial Associate

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