Their estimate was based on inquiries by industries seeking new locations and on the potential labor pool available. The chamber of commerce estimates that 4,000 additional people would be directly employed in new industry in the next 50 years. This growth is expected to take place at a relatively uniform rate over the 50-year period. Using a very conservative factor of 21⁄2 service people, children, and unemployables for each industrial employee, this growth amounts to 14,000 additional people in the year 2010. If the 14,000 people for industrial growth is added to the 15,000 predicted population with present water supply, the total in the year 2010 then becomes 29,000. In order to predict the rate of growth with additional water supply, a line was constructed to spread this increase in population out over a predicted growth pattern. This line is shown in chart I and labeled "Population growth, increased water supply." Since this method is somewhat different than the usual population forecasts, it seemed desirable to obtain some confirmation by a separate method. For this confirmation, we obtained the local telephone company's long-range forecast which was based on the number of households in Augusta in future years. This forecast was converted to total population using the 1950 census figure of 3.07 people per household. This forecast, extrapolated to the year 2010, is also shown in chart I where it is labeled "Population growth, telephone company forecast." Agreement between these two forecasts is surprisingly good. The telephone company forecast shows 30,000 people in the year 2010, while the population growth with increased water supply shows 29,000 people for the same year. WATER USAGE The forecast of water usage is separated into two sections, the residential demand and the industrial demand. The reason for this separation is that residential demand increase and industrial demand increase do not follow the same general pattern. (4) Residential demand in this area is expected to increase at the approximate rate of 2 percent per capita per year. (4,5,6) Present residential demand is about 100 gallons per capita per day (table I). On this basis, growth in usage would continue at a uniform rate to 200 gallons per capita per day in the next 50 years. Calculations show that in the year 2010 domestic demand for 29,000 people would be 5,800,000 gallons per day and for 15,000 people, it would be 3 million per day. If increased water were available, population growth would nearly double the demand for domestic water. Industrial demand for Augusta will increase from expansion of present industries and from location of new industries in the community or immediate area. The only existing industry in Augusta which is a major water user is the Mobil Oil Co. refinery, presently processing 40,000 barrels per day of crude oil. Their demand increase will constitute nearly all of the increased usage by present industries. The Mobil Oil Co. refinery's increase in water demand will be proportional to the barrels of crude processed and it will vary in almost direct ratio to processing capacity. At the present 40,000 barrels per day capacity, water usage is about 1 million gallons per day. A growth forecast for Mobil Oil shows it will probably need about 3,750,000 gallons per day by the year 2010. The predicted increase in refinery usage is based on growth of the domestic refining industry in the United States for the next 50 years. It is assumed that the Mobil Oil Co. refinery will grow in processing capacity at the same rate as the industry as a whole because historically it has followed about this pattern. Growth rate for the industry as a whole is based on total energy demand in the United States. For this forecast we have chosen the figures of the National Planning Commission for total U.S. energy needs as shown in chart II. The oil industry has furnished about 40 percent of these needs in the last decade and will probably continue to strive to furnish the same percentage of total energy needs. Using a ratio calculation on the extrapolated energy demand, the Mobil Oil Co. refinery at Augusta should process about 150,000 barrels of crude per calendar day in the year 2010. Water demand for this increased capacity was calculated on a proportional basis to obtain the predicted demand of 3,750,000 gallons. This usage figure should be quite conservative because the refinery has always practiced water conservation due to limited water supply. Powell & Bacon (7) show that the average 40,000-barrel-per-day refinery requires 3,250,000 gallons of water per day. This forecast shows only 3,750,000 gallons per day for a processing capacity of 150,000 barrels of crude. The water demand resulting from new industrial installations in Augusta is more difficult to forecast. In order to forecast this growth, it was necessary to make several assumptions. 1. No other large water consuming industries, such as the Mobil refinery, would be attracted to Augusta. 2. Because the labor pool available is not inexhaustible, new industries located here would be relatively small. We have chosen the figure of an average of 50 people per industry. 3. These small industries would fall at the median of industrial water usage which is about 50,000 gallons per day. (8) The median figure is far below the national average because a relatively small percent of the industries consume a large percent of the industrial water in the United States. Using the population forecast figure of 4,000 people employed in new industry, we would have 80 establishments. These 80 establishments, each with an individual usage of 50,000 gallons would have a daily demand of 4 million gallons. Summarizing the individual demand figures; population 29,000, residential usage 5,800,000, Mobil Oil Co. 3,750,000, new industries 4 million, for a total daily usage of 13,500,000 gallons in the year 2010. Present water supply would be totally inadequate during periods of drought and a new source must be devel oped to allow this growth to take place. ECONOMIC PENALTIES FOR LACK OF ADEQUATE WATER The calculation of economic penalty in this report is based on total dollar value of goods produced. The reason these figures are used is that dollars added to value by individual manufacturers are very difficult to determine and often quite inaccurate. Therefore, the more reliable figure of total dollar value of goods produced is used. With the present sources of water, the only time the water supply will become inadequate is during periods of drought. As stated in the introduction, we expect about a 20-year cycle on drought conditions. This anticipated figure is based on both long-range weather forecast and previous weather conditions as we have had droughts in the 1935 period, the 1955 period and will expect to have droughts in the 1970-80 period and 1990-2000 period. Based on the 1952-57 drought, emergency conditions should exist for about 3 years during succeeding droughts. The only reliable source of domestic water for these periods will be the Mulvane water pipeline. In order to calculate economic penalties, we have calculated both penalty on existing industry with existing water supply, and penalty due to potential loss of new industry at Augusta. The penalty to existing industry with present water supply would be confined largely to the single large user, Mobil Oil Co. The city will have to preempt the water allocated to Mobil Oil Co. on the Mulvane line as a matter of necessity. Mobil Oil would, of course, have the options of not increasing the size of the Augusta refinery or installing additional costly water conservation equip ment. For this report we have assumed the refinery would be increased in size and water shortage would merely result in loss of output. For the first drought period, say 1975, Mobil will have grown to 75,000 barrels per day processing capacity and will require 1,875,000 gallons of water per day. The city, with not additional water supply sources, will have grown to at least 9,100 people who will have a residential water demand of 130 gallons per capita. This constitutes a daily demand of 1,180,000 gallons of water per day. The total Mulvane line allocation, as mentioned before, is 2,590,000 gallons per day for both the city of Augusta and Mobil Oil Co. After the city demand is satisfied, there would remain only 1,141,000 gallons per day for refinery use, leaving the refinery short 465,000 gallons per day. A refinery water shortage of 465,000 gallons per day would necessitate a reduction in crude run of 18,600 barrels per day for a 3-year period. Product value of 18,600 barrels per day of crude processed, based on present prices, amounts to $27,900,000 per year. For a 3-year period, total penalty would be $83,750,000. A similar calculation for the 1995 period will show a population of 12,600 with refinery capacity 115,000 barrels per day. Water demand for residential use would be 2,160,000 gallons per day. Mobil Oil Co. would require 2,880,000 gallons per day. Taking the residential requirements out of the Mulvane line allocation, this would leave Mobil 2,450,000 gallons per day short on their water needs. The shortage would, in turn, reduce crude run in the amount of 98,000 barrels per day. Total product value on a crude run of 98,000 barrels per day for 3 years is $441 million. Totaling the two drought periods, penalty to existing industry would be $524,750,000. ECONOMIC PENALTIES RESULTING FROM LOSS OF NEW INDUSTRY In order to make an estimate for output of potential new industry, we used figures for gross national products and total U.S. employment of non-agricultural employees. Gross national puroduct on a yearly basis in dollars was divided by the number of nonagricultural employees for the second quarter of this year. This computation gives a dollar value of production per capita in the following manner: $483,000,000,000 59,600,000 = $8,100 output per worker per year Assuming that one-half of the per capita growth due to industry will be actively employed, we have calculated an average number of additional people who would be employed in Augusta in the next 50 years if adequate water supply is available. Data in chart I was used to calculate an average difference in population between the line showing "Population with Increased Water Supply" and "Population with Present Water Supply." The calculated average was 3,000 people. These 3,000 people employed for 50 years with $8,100 per year output amounts to a total production output of $1,215 million worth of goods produced. If we add the $1,215 million loss of product value for potential new industry to the $524 million loss in product value for present industry, the total economic penalty becomes $1,739 million unless Augusta finds another reliable source for water. R. T. EVANS. TABLE I.-Per capita water consumption, city of Augusta, Kans. (1) Paul M. Reid, "Problems and Techniques in Population Forecasting," Journal AWWA 50:655 (May 1958). (2) K. L. Kollar, "Some Novel Approaches to Population Studies," Journal AWWA 48:430 (Apr. 1956). (3) Robert C. Schmitt, "Forecasting City Population by the Ratio Method," Journal AWWA 46:960 (Oct. 1954). (4) Jerome B. Wolff, "Forecasting Water Requirements for Distribution Systems," Journal AWWA 49:225 (Mar. 1957). (5) Task Group Report, "Study of Domestic Water Use," Journal AWWA 50:408 (Nov. 1958). (6) Porges R., "Factors Influencing Per Capita Water Consumption," Water & Sewer Works 104:199 (1957). (7) Shepard T. Powell and Hilary E. Bacon, "Magnitude of Industrial Demand for Process Water," Journal AWWA 42:777 (Aug. 1950). (8) Dwight F. Metzler, R. V. Smrha, and F. C. Foley, "Water in Kansas" (A report to the 1955 State legislature). (9) U.S. National Employment Security Division, Employment Statistics. STATEMENT OF FRANK HAUCKE, COUNCIL GROVE, KANS. I serve as chairman of the Kansas Soil and Water Conservation Committee and am vice president of the Neosho-Cottonwood Flood Control and Water Conservation Committee, as well as a member of the legislative committee of the Missouri-Arkansas Basins Flood Control and Conservation Committee. Through the years I have been engaged in farming and stock raising in the Neosho Valley. Here I have witnessed many devastating floods where lives were lost and millions of dollars worth of property destroyed. Intermittently between floods severe droughts have occurred. To help solve the above-mentioned problem the Corps of Engineers have recommended four reservoirs on the Neosho-Cottonwood Rivers. There has been recommended in the budget moneys for continued construction on two of these reservoirs and planning money on the third for which we are grateful to your committee and the Bureau of the Budget. We are here to request of your committee the following reasonable funds for the fourth reservoir. Cedar Point Reservoir on Cedar Creek, Cedar Point, Kans., $50,000 planning money. We are very desirous that you give favorable consideration to our requests so that these worthwhile projects may be brought to an early completion. I hope that the comprehensive flood control and water conservation program of the Missouri-Arkansas Basins Flood Control and Water Conservation Association and the Arkansas Basin Association will also be carried out as this will benefit a large segment of mid-America. We will deeply appreciate your recommendations that moneys be made available for these important projects, and thank you for the courtesies extended us. STATEMENT BY HARLEY COSBY, ARKANSAS CITY, KANS., IN BEHALF OF ARKANSASWALNUT VALLEY BASIN ASSOCIATION My name is Harley Cosby, and I live at Arkansas City, Kans. I am president of the Arkansas-Walnut Valley Basin Association, a voluntary, incorporated nonprofit association, in southcentral Kansas. The Walnut River runs approximately north and south through a rich basin, populated by about 75,000 people with many cities and towns along its route. The river's source is northeast of Wichita, in Butler County, Kans., and empties into the Arkansas River just below the city of Arkansas City, which is about 3 miles north of the Oklahoma State line. In this area we suffered huge losses created by floods-loss of our fertile top soil, which is irreplaceable; untold losses to our farmers through destruction of crops, fences, buildings, and livestock; losses to our counties and cities through destruction of bridges, highways, roads, and streets. During drought periods we have had serious curtailment of water supply for our industries, our municipalities, our farmers, and ranchers. During the past 15 years, since the 1945 flood, we have been endeavoring to get flood control and this effort has been accelerated by the drought years pointing to the necessity of water storage. The per capita use of water is three times what it was in 1900 and will double again by 1975. Washing machines, garbage disposals, millions more bathrooms, the new trend for swimming pools, and exist. ing and new industries consume more and more of our available water supplies. This increased water usage added to the great increase in population makes it imperative that adequate water storage be provided by construction of dams and reservoirs. Our association is opposed to the "No new start" policy but as part of our national improvement program, we hold that we should develop our water resources and protect our industries, farms, and homes from flood damage and destruction. The passing of the 1958 Flood Control Act permitting the Corps of Engineers to contract with municipalities for water storage will greatly facilitate matters as an adequate water supply in the Walnut River Basin is greatly needed. The use of surface water in our area appears to be the most satisfactory method of supplying domestic and industrial water needs. The amount of ground water is limited and the quality in some areas is unsatisfactory. The chloride content of the underground water supply in this area is continually increasing. An emergency pipeline from the valley of the main stem of the Arkansas River from near Mulvane to Augusta and El Dorado was constructed during the drought period. This pipeline would be insufficient to supply water in a rationed basis for domestic use to say the least of industry. This is shown in the recent report prepared by Mobile Oil Co. at the request of the city of Augusta, which report is attached hereto and filed with this statement. WATER REQUESTS These cities have indicated water storage needs to meet their requirements over a 50-year period: Arkansas City Augusta El Dorado... Winfield__-_ Total__ Gallons daily 25, 000, 000 13, 500, 000 22, 000, 000 15, 000, 000 75, 500, 000 The cost of this water storage would be computed by the Corps of Engineers and spread over a 50-year period as provided by the 1958 Flood Control Act, the various cities paying their proportionate share of the cost. Any excess water supply in the Walnut River Basin over local needs could be used to meet some of the municipal industrial needs of the Arkansas River Basin, south to the Keystone Reservoir above Tulsa, Okla. An outline of the Walnut River system is contained in the AWR report and includes the following: El Dorado Reservoir on Walnut River. Wingate Reservoir on Rock Creek. Stream bank pumping for irrigation. The project is a solution for the major flood, water supply, and irrigation problems in the basin. There are several fairly large cities and towns in the Walnut River Basin including: Arkansas City, Augusta, Douglas, El Dorado, Winfield, and several smaller towns and villages. Principal industries including oil refining, flour milling, meatpacking, and Some others all of which are directly related to the national interest in that they furnish large quantities of products necessary to successful conclusion in times of national emergency such as war. FLOOD CONTROL The Walnut River system would control runoff from more than a thousand square miles of drainage area above annual flood damages in the Walnut River Basin below. LOCAL PROTECTION WORKS At El Dorado, Kans., a program of channel straightening and possible construction of levees is under consideration, investigation, and study. This in order to protect a substantial residential and commercial area that has heretofore been flooded. Also it would open up an area for further improvement and development. At Winfield, Kans., a proposed improvement and extension of exitsing levees is under investigation and study. RECREATION There are few opportunities for recreation in connection with water areas in the Walnut River Basin. The population growth and shorter workweek in the |