4. All persons applying for a first preference visa would be able to obtain one.

Because only 5,280 first preference visas were issued in 1978, an assumption was made that a substantial number of unused first preference visa numbers would be carried over and become available to applicants in the other relative preference categories. For purposes of these charts, it was assumed that 6,000 first preference visas would be used in the first year of the new immigrant selection system proposed in Recommendation 2.1.

Thus, 48,000 unused first preference visas would be available for applicants in other relative preference categories.

(Note that, as reflected in the accompanying charts, this computation was applied only during the first year of operation under the proposed immigrant selection system without per-country and dependent territory numerical limitations and not to succeeding years. Its application in succeeding years would undoubtedly result in the elimination of the fifth preference category backlog at a much earlier date.) 5. The estimated number of unused first preference visas in the first year of the proposed system was added to the total visa numbers that would be available for second preference visa applicants in the first year.

Thus, an assumption is made that 118,200 visas would be available to applicants for second preference visas.

6. An assumption was also made that there would be no unused second preference visas available for

applicants in the fourth and fifth preference categories.

Thus, fourth and fifth preference visa applicants would be limited strictly to the percentage allotted under the annual worldwide ceiling. (Of course, if there were any unused visas in the first and second preference categories, they would be available to fourth and fifth preference visa applicants, thus reducing the potential backlog of visa applications in those preference categories that might exist at the initial implementation of the proposed immigrant selection system of Recommendation 2.1).

Based on those assumptions, charts A2-A3 were constructed. The charts for each preference category show the numerical and percentage distribution of immigrant visas within that preference for countries or dependent territories with potential backlogs. Thus, for example, the chart for second preference shows that during the first year following implementation of Recommendation 2.1, an estimated 79,917 of second preference immigrants would come from Mexico, the Philippines, Antigua, Belize, Hong Kong, and St. Christopher-Nevis, while the remaining 38,283 of second preference immigrants would come from all countries on a first-come, firstserved basis. Charts for third and fifth preference indicate that more than one year would probably be required to eliminate the potential backlog of visa applications within those preferences. Charts for first, second, fourth, and sixth preference indicate that the potential backlog of visa applicants in those preference categories would probably be eliminated in the first year.

Elimination of Backlogs Within Preference Categories under Proposed New Immigrant Selection System Without Per-Country and Dependent Territory Numerical Limitations

'Number of visas available in this preference category.

27,000 -19,620

+ 7,380

2Estimated number of persons seeking visas in this preference category (present backlog). 3Estimated number of persons seeking visas in this preference category (new applicants in year 1).

64,8001 -167,9502

-103,150

64,8001 -103,1502

- 38,350

64,8001 38,3502 26,450

Sixth
preference

27,0001
-11,3332

+ 15,667

Source: Calculated from data in U.S., Department of State, "Active Immigrant Visa Applicants Registered at Consular Offices as of January 1, 1979," and Visa Bulletin, February 1979.