JACK FROST. HA! ha! Jack Frost, Is the frontier crossed That divides us from Autumn's domain? Are we far on the road To your icy abode O'er the track of your wintry plain? Whose leafless trees All elbows and knees, All crooked, and crank, and cropt, Ho! ho! Jack Frost, To the winds our sylvan fleece? Bold thief of the wood You shall make it good With the folds of your snow pelisse. Of the Autumn fronds, A NOCTURNE. FROM THE GERMAN OF REINICK. EARTH in heavenly rest is sleeping, There, with moonbeams shining o'er it, Good-night! Good night! In her bower the maid lies dreaming Good-night! Good-night! Cassell's Magazine. A. L. MACKECHNIE. MARCH MEADOWS. A THICK white mist lies heavy on the valeHeavy, and soft, and cold; on either hand, Ghosts of themselves, the trees and hedges stand, Nor black nor green, but vaguely dull and pale; And in the clotted air, our lambs' weak wail Is stifled; and a silent spectral band Of cattle moves across the shadowless land, Wherein all forms are blurr'd, all voices fail. Ah me, how like is this our stern sad spring To life's yet sterner autumn! Such a mist, So cold, so formless, from the Lethe From The Fortnightly Review. THE PRESENT POSITION OF EUROPEAN POLITICS. PART III. RUSSIA. IN two previous articles it has been shown how Germany and Austria from the fear of a Franco-Russian alliance, how England from preference for peace and want of sufficient motive, and how France from the real peacefulness of the majority of its electors, are unlikely to begin a war. There remains Russia, the country which, intensely patriotic but not yet very sure of its position in the world, ridiculed as barbarous, and therefore very sensitive, and ruled by an autocrat of uncertain temper, is alone in a position to provoke a conflict. Will it do so? There appeared lately in a number of Russian newspapers some remarkable articles on the same question on which I am writing here the present position of the great powers. These articles, indeed, teach us nothing except the arrogance, or the consciousness of strength, of Russia, which scarcely seems to care what other powers may or may not do, and the extraordinary ignorance which prevails among even the best-informed real Russians in the empire. I say real Russians, because there are at St. Petersburg a number of able and highly cultured persons who are in the Russian service, and have no illusions upon the subject, but are either not of Russian race or are so much in touch with foreigners through constant travel or long residence abroad that they have ceased to share the more dangerous among the illusions of their countrymen. Unfortunately, however, it is the Russian emperor who governs Russia, and not these gentlemen. Some of them, as for example MM. de Giers, Jomini, and Vlangaly, are occasionally consulted by way of form, but their private opinions do not receive official sanction or become that policy of the Russian Empire which in public (and most conversations at St. Petersburg may be looked upon as public) they defend. To justify what I have said about articles in the Russian journals, let me quote the doctrines of one from the Novoe Vremya upon "The Western Pow ers and Russia." The phrase "the western powers" does not apply only to Great Britain and France, the meaning which it used to bear, but it includes five powers, or what we style the two central and the two western powers, with the addition of Italy. The writer states that if Prussia has managed to make an apparent German unity towards the exterior, it must be remembered both that German Austria is not yet included within Germany, and that there is no internal unity even among the kingdoms that are included. South and Catholic Germany, he declares, detests Prussian and Protestant Germany more than ever, and the southern States will seize the first opportunity to throw off the hegemony of Prussia, and once more make Austria supreme in the German Empire. Schleswig-Holstein too is a serious weakness to the empire. Germany is hated by Austria as well as by France, she suffers internally from socialism, she has alienated Great Britain by her colonial policy, and she could not even depend on Italian friendship unless she were willing to help Italy to take away from Austria the Tyrol, the Trentino, and Trieste itself, and this she will not do. Germany therefore is absolutely isolated. The emperor and Prince Bismarck himself will die before German unity has made a step, and the only chance they have of maintaining themselves lies in a Russian alliance. A somewhat flattering picture this, indeed, of what Prince Bismarck has done for Germany! The writer passes on to Austria. Austria desires to regain leadership in Germany, she refuses to become a Slav power and insists on remaining German, she is waiting only for the death of Prince Bismarck, but is too wretchedly weak to harm Russia. Turning to France, the writer points out that she has quarrelled with England and stands alone, whilst his glance at England, as might be expected, reveals to him the impossibility of her defending either her colonies or her trade, the danger that she incurs from Ireland, and the certainty that she will put up with anything rather than fight. The conclusion of the article, of course, is that Russia alone among the powers is quiet, strong, and really great, that if she gave to Germany her alliance she could wipe of other Russian tribes, of which the out Austria from the face of Europe, and fourteen millions of Little Russians are force France to remain at peace. If, the most numerous and the best known, on the other hand, she chooses a French furnishing as they do the picked men alliance she can destroy Germany, whilst of the Russian Guards. Some carethe destinies of England are in her hands, less observers are apt to make seriously inasmuch as she could easily deliver an exactly opposite statement, namely, India from the British yoke. The writer that there is such a diversity of races thinks it laughable to suppose that Russia under the Russian flag that Russia must will ask the consent of any power to settle be bound but loosely together, and be the Bulgarian question in the sense which always at the point of tumbling to pieces. she may prefer. It is hardly necessary to No doubt there are great numbers of picindicate the weak points of this article, turesque peoples of various races, tongues, and I shall have occasion to deal with the customs, and religions who are under the strong points, and to reveal the grain of Russian rule. Travellers affect their provtruth that it may contain, in demonstrating inces, and are rather repelled by the unithe immense power of the Russian Empire. form black dulness of Russia proper; but That with which I am here concerned is all those peoples bear to the mass of the only to show in what a fools' paradise Russians only about the same numerical those Russians live who really direct the and political importance as the sotnias of external policy of their country - the Persian, Armenian, Georgian, Mingrelian, emperor himself and the leading journal Circassian, Bashkir, and Uralian Cosists, who, however, it must be observed, sacks, who figure in the emperor's body are themselves powerless, except through guard at a great review at St. Petersburg, the immense influence of one of them, the bear numerical and military importance autocrat of the Moscow Gazette. to the fifty or sixty thousand men of the guards who are upon the field No doubt the Fins of Great Finland and the Samoyeds of northern Siberia, and the Sarts of central Asia, and the yellow-faced and slit-eyed Kalmucks of Astrakhan, the Golden-Horde Tatars of Kazan, the Turcomen of the Caspian steppes, the Indians of Baku, the Tchuvassi, Vatiki, Mordwa, and other Asiatic Fins upon the Volga, and countless other tribes and peoples who might be named, differ very greatly the one from the other, and all of them from the Russians; but on the whole they do not form a weakness to the Russian Empire, and their existence within its confines does not detract from the essential fact that there are some sixty millions of Russians who speak virtually one tongue. I am aware that much that I say in the course of this article will produce protest, for while I shall offend those who believe in the moderation or truth of Russia, I shall, on the other hand, displease those too patriotic persons, if there be such a thing as an overdose of patriotism, who dislike Russia so much that they cannot recognize either her power or the patriotism of her people. All that I shall try to do in this, as in the other articles of this series, is to ascertain facts, and the exact bearing of the facts with which we have to deal. I address myself to those, if there be such in these days, who are free from party prejudice, from prejudice personal and national to those, in short, who try to see things as they really are. The fact upon which it is necessary to insist in considering the position of Russia is that she has of all the European powers by far the largest homogeneous population. There are about as many Great Russians, speaking the same lan-ers of Europe. The accuracy of this guage, without any dialects, as there are real Germans in all Germany. In addition to these there are millions upon millions of closely connected Russians This nation, numerically the superior of any nation except the Chinese, and China is not yet organized for modern war, is also more religious and more patriotic as a body than is any of the other great pow remark will be contested, but hardly I think by those who know Russia well. The Russians are as religious at the least as are the people of the English colonies power, and especially where they are subjects of Hungary and Austria, Russia is to them a friend on whose power they build their hopes. The Ruthenians of the dual monarchy are so many Russians lost within its boundaries. There is no similar German or other colony lost in Russia, for what aliens there are are too few and too much dispersed. Some think that Russia is weakened by the German element in the Baltic provinces. Here, again, those who think so are behind the times. The Baltic provinces were never German, so far as the peasantry are concerned. A German aristocracy, with German traders in the towns, ruled over a peasantry of the Esthonian, Lettish, and Lithuanian races. To this peasantry the Russians, with all their despotic measures against the landowners and against the German tongue, have come as deliverers. Because Russia is very violent in her language and in her acts, we too often fail to see how a peasantry which an aristocratic government or a government of political economists could never win, is won over by her to her rule. The Moscow men failed in Bulgaria, but in Poland they succeeded, and in the Baltic provinces, too, their methods and their policy have not been found wanting, and it is probable that the problems that have so long perplexed this country in her relations with Ireland would have been solved in a week by Samarin, or Miliutin, or Prince Tcherkassky. or of the United States, and they are as patriotic as the citizens of the latter country. In the union of patriotism and of religion they present, I know no country in Europe which can approach them, although they may be rivalled by the people of the United States. We have here obviously, from the facts which I take to be admitted by careful observers, in Russia a power which, by the very nature of things and apart from any movement which she may make, is formidable in the highest degree. There are some fossil politicians in England who still think that Russia is weakened by the existence of a Poland. Poland died in 1863, and died forever. The men who, either in their own persons or in the persons of their ancestors, have illustrated literature by their genius, and countless battle-fields by their splendid courage, may refuse to recognize the extinction of their country; but the Poles, considered as an anti-Russian force, were an aristocracy, in the best as well as in the common sense of the word. The Polish peasantry, though often led by them against Russia, were never antiRussian to an unpurchasable degree, and a large portion of the Polish peasantry have now become as attached, through agrarian legislation, to the Russian Empire as the German peasantry of Alsace were to France by the agrarian legislation of the Revolution. At the time of the Crimean War Poland did not rise; but looking to what afterwards happened in 1863, it is impossible to say that it might not have been roused. Poland could now no longer be raised against the Russians; and in spite of the fairly successful attempts which have been made by Austria to conciliate the Galician Poles, there are Slavonic subjects of Austria who could far more easily be raised against the dual monarchy than any Polish or other Slavonic subjects of Russia could be raised against the tsar. It is difficult for us to realize the attraction of Russia for some of the weaker members of the Slavonic races. Where, as once in Servia and lately in Bulgaria, Russia has had a comparatively free hand, she has often alienated Slavonic feeling; but where Slavs have been the subjects of another great Some are disposed to think that Nihilism constitutes a great danger to the Russian Empire, weakening not only her offensive but even her defensive force. There can be no doubt that in Russia, in spite of the recent so-called cadet and staff conspiracy, the general belief of the best informed is that at this moment Austria and Germany have more to fear from socialism than Russia has from Nihilistic conspiracies. I shall have to return to the subject generally when I come to my Austrian paper; but as regards Russia I may say that my latest information leads me to agree with Russian writers upon this point. There can be no doubt, I think, in the mind of any reasonable observer, as to the real and lasting strength of Russia; and thoroughly examined at the time, and the the question which it is more interesting only extraordinary thing is that, even by to consider is in what manner that strength a portion of the public, and even for a is likely to be used. Russia is, though few months, they should have been beold in some senses, politically as young a lieved. The whole fabric of our policy in country as the United States, and has not 1878 having sunk in collapse, we are now yet by any means passed the growing told by some of the same persons who period. She is strong even while growing were instrumental in misleading us on fast, but will be still stronger in her prime. that occasion that Bulgaria is not a British In considering her power let me, in the interest, that Constantinople is not a Britfirst place, protest against the action of ish interest, that the continued existence those Englishmen who allow themselves of the Turkish Empire is not a British to be scared out of a policy which a short interest, and generally, that nothing is a time ago they thought right and wise. British interest which our own military The fact that a number of gentlemen have unreadiness would make it difficult for us come to realize the strength of Russia has to protect by force of arms. Just as a led them to begin to declare that they large portion of the public refused to acwere quite wrong a few years ago in say- cept the guidance of these gentlemen in ing that this country ought to keep Russia 1878, so it is possible that a portion of out of the Balkan Peninsula and away the public will refuse to accept their guidfrom Constantinople, and out of Herat ance now, and will insist on examining and away from the Persian Gulf; and the question for themselves. When we that on the contrary England should em- all but went to war in 1878 for the sultan's brace her with open arms and enter upon supremacy in eastern Roumelia, and were an alliance with the power which a short told that we had secured it, we soon found time ago they were declaring to be their that we had only secured it upon paper, country's mortal foe. No doubt it is im- and we were then assured that the idea possible to maintain the principles of Lord must be replaced by another. British polBeaconsfield's speeches of 1878; and it is icy, we were asked to believe, had shifted, really a useless waste of time to examine because circumstances had shifted, and how completely the so-called settlement the spirit of freedom found to exist in the of that year has broken down. All that Bulgarian race, and especially in eastern has happened was prophesied by clear- Roumelia, was to form the new bulwark sighted observers at the time. Sir Samuel against Russia-a bulwark better than Baker then stated that our policy "might the Balkan line. But as soon as Austria terminate in a friendship between the declined our alliance, and Russia refused Russians and the Turks to the detriment to make terms with the Bulgarians, then of British interests and to the confusion our instructors began to tell us that even of the assumed protectorate." alluding to the Asia Minor Convention interest, and it seems now to be generally He was Bulgarian independence was not a British and the appointment of military consuls understood that Constantinople itself is throughout the Turkish Asiatic provinces, not to be defended by this country, unless and his prophecy has come true to the Hungarian feeling should make Austria letter. In 1878 we were told that England fight, and unless a scratch pack of other had restored to Turkey the greater por- allies can also be obtained. Just as in the tion of her provinces, but eastern Rou- Belgian question, which I discussed in the melia was counted into what was restored, first article of this series, and to which I and Bosnia and Herzegovina were not shall return in the last, it is desirable that counted into what was taken away, so that England at all events should know what the inquiry need hardly be pursued. We she means and make up her mind, so too were told that our action had not only re-in this question of the Balkans and of stored her provinces to Turkey, but had Constantinople. Not that the question is insured the reform of their administration. No one I suppose can imagine that much progress has been made in that direction. We were told that Turkey had been given in the Balkans an impregnable frontier; that the power, military and civil, of the sultan in eastern Roumelia was complete, and that it was "absolutely necessary for securing the safety of Constantinople." All these considerations, however, were likely to be raised at present in an aggravated form. The sultan, knowing that he is now deserted by the most influential men in both the English parties, and that Austria will not fight for him if she can help it, because she knows that she is not a match for Russia in a military sense, expecting also, at he does, a rising in Crete, a Greek advance upon Janina, and a rising in southern Macedonia whenever |