Senator ALLOTT. I might say that Congress has been very well researched to death these last few years.

Mr. GREEN. Yes, sir. I think it is quite true that almost every agency today is looking to research to improve its efficiency, and so

are we.

Senator ALLOTT. Let's put a question mark around the word "research" and I will accept your statement.

NATIONAL RESOURCE EVALUATION CENTER

Mr. GREEN. Well, sir, I would like to bracket our program in two general categories. The first is research related to our own operations, and while we are a planning agency, we also have two major Government-wide operations one of which is the National Resources Evaluation Center. This is a centralized computer facility serving the entire emergency preparedness community of some 25 agencies.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF POSTATTACK ECONOMY

Last year I did report to you that we were developing, under contract with the National Planning Association a mathematical model of the postattack economy.

I am pleased to report today that the research aspects of this model are completed, and that we are now engaged in what you might call the transition from research into an operating tool.

In fiscal year 1965 we plan to run and rerun these models on our computer.

We want to find out any inconsistencies or inaccuracies, if and where they exist, in a complex prototype of this nature, and we want to correct those. We want to find out what statistical inputs are significant, and be sure they are effectively done.

We want to prove out the logic.

Equally important, we want to train our personnel to operate the model.

In other words, we will bring this piece of promising research through development, through tests, into operations, by the end of fiscal year 1965.

We have $425,000 set aside for this. There has been an expenditure already of $850,000 in this model over prior years.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Now, the second Government-wide operational program also involves a computer effort but in a different field. It is telecommunications. But here also the work is developmental in nature, and is a follow-on of a research study which was completed successfully in 1963 and 1964.

During those years, an expert private firm, H. R. B. Singer, under contract, examined the present system for handling requests for frequency assignments with a view to introducing automatic methods instead of the manual method. Their study showed that the application of computer techniques will save time, manpower, and should increase the accuracy of frequency assignments.

This year we wish to test the conclusions of this study. Specifically we propose (a) to convert a group of frequency assignments requests

to machine language, (b) to rent time on a computer and (c) to contract with a qualified firm to prepare machine programs which will permit the comparison of these requests with frequencies already assigned and in use.

Then the use of machines for assignment of frequencies will be tried on an experimental or "pilot" basis. This developmental effort's purpose is to learn how best to employ machines and to insure an orderly transition from the present methods to a faster more accurate and more useful system.

OPERATIONS RESEARCH

The two projects described support major OEP operationsresources studies and frequency assignments. The next one is concerned with support of OEP's role as guide and monitor of the emergency operations assigned by Executive orders to other civilian agencies.

CRITICAL POSTATTACT ITEMS

It is generally agreed that a few items are critical to the successful recovery of our economy after attack. Without food, electric power, fuel, railway transport, or communications, our economy would be crippled. This has been recognized and Agriculture, Interior, Commerce, the Federal Power Commission, and others are designing emergency operations to insure the availability of these critical items. Now we need to take a look at the total postattack economy to see how these major agency programs interact with one another.

We need to find out answers to such questions as: whether the food supplies can be transported to the surviving population; whether the farmers can get fuel and spare parts to operate their farm machinery; whether trucks can get fuel to transport essential goods; whether the surviving power generators can be operated to send power to productive industries; and, whether skilled personnel will be available to operate the generators and allied equipment. Such questions lend themselves to solution by research.

A simulation of an actual postattack situation is made and by operational research techniques the "interactions" can be found. Then we can see if, collectively, the related agency programs are logical, consistent and mutually supporting. We propose to contract with competent operations research organizations for three such studies in fiscal year 1965 for a total of $250,000.

RESOURCE STUDIES FOR NATIONAL SECURITY

Next we come to the subject of resources significant to our national security. OEP's major effort here is the national stockpile. Our problem is to look ahead and make reasonable forecasts as to the availability of and demands for such resources. One logical step is to take advantage of those resource studies which are made from time to time by expert groups in and out of Government.

Today, several industries, leading trade associations, technical journals, Government agencies, research institutes, and private foundations undertake to make studies of specific resources. This is extremely valuable.

However, what is lacking today is the ability to relate one independent study to another. If each major resource study covered comparable time periods, and used similar methods of arriving at results, we would get a consistent picture of future resource problems.

We propose to contract with a research organization to bring together information on present, authoritative surveys, which are critical to security, and to see what can be extracted from them which will present us an orderly, sound plan of the future demands for

resources.

USE OF PREVIOUS RESEARCH

Senator ALLOTT. I do not want to cut you off-you can put that in the record. We have done all this before many times. We keep tracing over the same old pattern year after year after year.

DISPOSITION OF PREVIOUS REPORTS

What is done with the reports you completed last year? What is done with the research reports of the year before?

Each new year we are going to have a whole new program on all these things.

Mr. GREEN. No, sir. This is to take advantage of that research which has been completed, not to do new research.

There is a great deal of research that has been done, by Resources for the Future, by the Interior Department, by McGraw-Hill, and many others.

Senator ALLOTT. I hope the day never comes when this statement is challenged, but I doubt if some of the research that you have mentioned there is going to have any tangible benefits to this country in the case of an emergency, because I do not think that you can possibly research these you cannot guess into the future.

Mr. GREEN. Sir, I would agree with you completely, that you cannot completely rely on research. But you have to have research as a tool to obtain original insights and new approaches and to study these problems, so that our own people thereafter can make more orderly decisions. Without research, we look back to World War II; with research, we look ahead to the future.

PROJECT WITH NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

In this connection, I would like to describe in particular the only other considerably funded project, which is with the National Academy of Sciences.

Back in the days of the OCDM, there was a contract relation with the Academy, where they had an Advisory Committee which looked at the research programs, made useful suggestions and recommendations and submitted material. This was lost when OCDM was split into OEP and OCD.

What we would propose is to renew this contract relationship with the Academy-$50,000 would be for the normal relationships with the Academy, and $150,000 would support two specific research projects which we would expect in fiscal year 1965 the Academy would recommend to us, sir.

Senator SALTONSTALL. Would the Senator yield?

Senator ALLOTT. I yield. I do not want to go into this any further

now.

EFFECT OF REDUCTION IN FUNDS

Senator SALTONSTALL. May I just ask one more question, Mr. Chairman?

I will ask this of Mr. Chambers or the gentleman who just testified-you are asking us to increase your appropriation $3,315,000. Assume that some of that was cut back. In other words, to $2,310,000. Where, Mr. Chambers, would you cut down? You ask for a very substantial increase in research, as I read this. You are asking for $1,300,000 for research. And the estimate of 1964 was under that. You had a limitation.

Mr. CHAMBERS. Mr. Rice pointed out-with the exception of research, basically, we are asking for $185,000 less in our appropriation. Our heavy increase is in this research item. And Mr. Green has explained that.

Senator SALTONSTALL. Research is, of course, intangible. I mean you just cannot put your finger on a dollar value here, there, or someplace else. It is a question of how much research you want to do; isn't that about it?

Mr. GREEN. No, sir.

Mr. CHAMBERS. No, sir; it is not a question of how much we want to do. It is a question of what we think we have to do, Senator.

For instance, Congress has given us the money, and we think it has been wisely used to work on something that has never been done either by Government or industry, and that is trying to develop a computer model that can take damage-assessment figures, either on a simulated basis in advance of an attack, or the actual attack pattern, and produce very promptly a reasonable assessment of remaining resources right down to particular plants and localities.

I agree with Senator Allott that the probabilities of nuclear attack fade as nations begin to have a nuclear capability. But you have to plan against the possibility of a nuclear attack. They do it in the military. We have to do it.

This model we are talking about, and for which we have allocated about $425,000

Mr. GREEN. We have spent over prior years about $850,000 to bring it this far along. We wish to complete it.

Mr. CHAMBERS. We think we can. We think there are going to be bugs in this. There have been questions raised about certain aspects of it that need to be ironed out. And they will be ironed out. But this is a tangible thing, sir, in our line of endeavor.

TELECOMMUNICATION REQUEST

Now, the request for telecommunications-the volume of requests for frequencies in telecommunications has increased tremendously, and it is now taking many weeks to process these requests. We now manually process about 30,000 a year. Furthermore, we are more and more getting into the business of frequencies for use in space, due to the telecommunications satellites and things of that type. Our people are getting further and further behind.

We have paid for some research in the field of telecommunications and what we want to do now is to test the results of that research and

get this system operational. There is one way we believe there will be a savings of manpower and certainly an increased efficiency.

DEVELOPING COMPUTER CAPABILITIES

Coming back to the question of the computers capability that we have, this is a good capability. There are many studies dealing with the effect of a disarmament program on our industry. And the Council of Economic Advisers is hopeful that we can develop the input-output models to the point where we can be of assistance in forecasting if they cut back in armament the effect it will have on certain segments of our economy.

What we are asking for, again, sir, is an important part of the total security program. And while it looks big in our budget, it is a tiny drop in the budget of the total security program. I am not using that as a rationalization for you to give us some money. I am simply saying if we do not do some of these things, we might very well fail to do our job when the time comes. And if we fail, there is going to be chaos-because we will go back to what we tried to do in World War II, and it is just not going to work.

Senator SALTONSTALL. Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Senator MON RONEY. You may continue.

PLANS FOR CONTINUITY OF GOVERNMENT

Mr. CHAMBERS. Under OEP direction, the Federal Government has taken a series of practical steps which we believe will substantially strengthen its ability to survive and function under severe emergency conditions, while providing for an orderly transfer of power and preserving our tradition of civilian control. Some of these steps are: The establishment of official lines of succession to key positions to insure continuity of leadership and authority. These have been established in all agencies to meet the prescribed standard of eight successors for headquarters and at least three for important field offices.

Provisions have been made for the emergency transfer of authority to lower levels and field offices in 11 important agencies.

Emergency facilities have been established at 712 dispersed locations. Of these, 94 would support headquarters operations and are known as the Federal relocation arc.

Hardened headquarters centers have been established for some of the key elements of Government.

Last year, gentlemen, I think there were some off-the-record discussions about the provisions for the legislative branch in this connection. As I think perhaps you are aware, the leadership has now been briefed on the facilities that are available for the legislative branch.

Senator ALLOTT. They have?

Mr. CHAMBERS. Yes, sir.

Senator ALLOTT. Very interesting.

Mr. CHAMBERS. Well, I can assure you that they have been briefed. I was present at the briefing.

Survivable transportation and communications systems have been established to support most of the relocation centers.