PROTECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. COMMITTEE ON IRRIGATION OF ARID LANDS, Mr. SWING. I would like to present Professor Durand, of Stanford University. Professor Durand is a graduate of the Annapolis Academy and has served in the United States Navy. He has been engaged in research work for the Government on water propellers and more recently on air propellers. He was professor of marine engineering at Cornell University and at present is professor of mechanical engineering at Stanford University. During the war he was chairman of the Advisory Committee for Aeronautics and was later scientific attaché at Paris. He was the connecting link between the United States Government and the Allies on war research. He is a member of the board of consulting engineers of San Francisco on the Hetch Hetchy project and has been a member of the Los Angeles Hydro Electric Consulting Board since 1909. STATEMENT OF PROF. W. F. DURAND. Professor DURAND. I should, perhaps, explain that the reason I am appearing before this committee (my primary connection being as a professor in Stanford University) is due to the fact that during the entire period of the development of the municipal power system of Los Angeles I have been in association with those undertakings in a consulting capacity and have, therefore, had an opportunity of becoming familiar with the power problems of Los Angeles as a city and, in a considerable degree, with those affecting the southern part of California, and, of course, in some lesser degree the entire section of the Southwest. Mr. LITTLE. Were you employed by the city? Professor DURAND. By the city, yes. Perhaps I should also say that my contact with these problems has been chiefly technical and the subjects which I might naturally discuss before this committee have already been generally covered by the Director of the Reclamation Service. Any detailed discussion of these phases of the subject would therefore lead to a repetition, in considerable degree, of a part of the testimony already presented before the committee. This I believe to be unnecessary and I shall, therefore, endeavor to restrict my comments to certain features which were not so fully dealt with by the Director of the Reclamation Service and to certain other points which may be of interest to the committee. Evidence has been shown, in the questions which members of the committee have asked, regarding the very keen interest which they take in the problem of financial reinbursement, the problem of the practicability of the scheme as a financial and economic undertaking, and I wish to speak to that point briefly-that is, regarding the question of the prospective market for power as we see it in the southern part of the State of California and generally throughout the Southwest. It is known, I take it, to most members of the committee, that the city of Los Angeles has already developed power along the line of the aqueduct to the extent, in round numbers, of about 100,000 horsepower; the remaining capacity of the aqueduct and of the streams immediately tributary thereto represents something like 150,000 horsepower more, so that the ultimate development of the power immediately along the line of the aqueduct thinking merely now of Los Angeles as the single customer-will be represented by something like 250,000 horsepower. The present demand for power in the city of Los Angeles far outruns its present development and it is itself at the present time a large purchaser of power i rom the private power companies. The business agent of the city of Los Angeles in recent years has been compelled to decline discussion with large prospective power users regarding power for industrial purposes and representing an aggregate of something like 100,000 horsepower. That is to say, there exists at present a void which might be immediately filled or filled at a very early date represented by some such figure. 63 Mr. LITTLE. One hundred thousand horsepower? Professor DURAND. Yes. Mr. RAKER. What is being done to develop this other 150,000 horsepower? Professor DURAND. They are proceeding as rapidly as circumstances will permit. Mr. RAKER. And expect in due course to develop it to the entire limit? Professor DURAND. Yes, sir; I am coming to that point immediately. The annual increase in power demand in the city of Los Angeles in recent years has run at about 20 per cent, so that looking forward into the future it is a 20 per cent compound interest program. Mr. LITTLE. Annually? Professor DURAND. Annually, yes, sir; for the increase of power. And what is true of Los Angeles is likewise substantially true for the other communities in the southern part of the State, as well as for the whole Southwest in a general way. At this rate of increase for the city of Los Angeles the entire capacity of its aqueduct power system will be required some time in 1925. That is to say, if Los Angeles is able to proceed promptly with the further development of these resources, it will in 1925 have reached the limit of their capacity and will immediately thereafter be in the market actively for other blocks of power. Mr. RAKER. About what is the estimated amount now required by the cities in southern California outside of Los Angeles? Professor DURAND. The demand for power in southern California outside of Los Angeles is such as to require an active working installation of something over 400,000 horsepower capacity, with, or course, a reasonable excess installed capacity to insure continuity of service. Mr. RAKER. They are now short too, are they not? Professor DURAND. There is a definite power shortage throughout the entire southern part of the State. This is especially the case in Los Angeles, and what is true of Los Angeles is, I am confident from my own contact with the situation in the southern part of the State, likewise true of other municipalities and of the entire section, and it is likewise true with regard to contiguous States and, in a general way, the entire section which would be related to the Colorado River as a source of power. In fact, what I believe to be a conservative estimate covering the probable increase in power demands during the future period of years seems to indicate that if there were no further supply in the meantime, the shortage within a period of seven or eight years, certainly by the time the Boulder Canyon Dam was completed and ready for service, would be sufficient to immediately absorb the entire amount, and by the entire amount I mean 600,000 continuous horsepower. Mr. RAKER. What is your view as to the construction of the Boulder Canyon Dam by the Government rather than by private individuals? Professor DURAND. I think the Government is the only agency which should undertake the construction of the dam. Mr. HAYDEN. Is it not true that the city of Los Angeles has not only developed power along the aqueduct but is also seeking to obtain permission to develop power sites in the Sierra Nevadas north of Tehachapi Pass, Calif., with the purpose of bringing the power down to the city of Los Angeles? Professor DURAND. I do not know to what extent the city is actively interested in the actual development of those sites but I know it has made some surveys and has estimated certain possibilities. Those possibilities, however, were not included in the figures which I gave a moment ago. Mr. HAYDEN. I also understood that there was objection on the part of those north of the Tehachapi Pass to Los Angeles invading their territory and developing the power which they would ultimately need, feeling that Los Angeles should be confined, as to its source of power, to southern California, and that the power resources of northern California be ultimately developed and used for the development of that section of the State. Professor DURAND. That is quite true.. Mr. BARBOUR. I can testify to that, too, Mr. Hayden. Professor DURAND. But I should also state, as far as I can speak for the city of Los Angeles, that she would much prefer to insure in some way an adequate supply of power from the Colorado River rather than from these other sources referred to. Mr. RAKER. Has Los Angeles an application now pending for power privileges on the Colorado River, I mean, before the power commission? Professor DURAND. I think there were certain applications filed some time ago simply for the purpose of insuring what might be called a hearing for Los Angeles when the question of the allocation of power should arise or in case the Federal Government should not proceed with the undertaking of securing for the city an opportunity of developing such power for herself. Mr. RAKER. Then, so far as you know, California, Nevada, Arizona, and that country are sort of a unit in favor of the Government commencing on this Boulder Canyon power project? Professor DURAND. Yes; I so understand, and I know furthermore that the communities generally in that section of the country are in immediate need of additional power and are desirous of its prompt development from the Colorado River. To come back to the point I was speaking of Mr. BARBOUR (interposing). Before you leave that, could you give us any statement as to the amount of horsepower, or electric energy in horsepower, that is now used by the city of Los Angeles? Professor DURAND. The present developments in its own plants, as I said a moment ago, represent 100,000 horsepower. Mr. BARBOUR. And that is all along the aqueduct? Professor DURAND. Yes, sir. It is, furthermore, a purchaser of power to a large degree and I am sorry I am unable to give those figures. I should, perhaps, state for the benefit of the committee that I am appearing here in some small way representing Mr. Scattergood, the electrical engineer of the city, who is, unfortunately, ill in the hospital and is unable for that reason to appear before the committee. I have myself just returned from Europe and was caught by a telegram when I landed in New York and asked to come over here to assist in presenting this situation before the committee. I have been quite familiar with certain phases of these problems but the chief electrical engineer of the city would have all of these figures at his fingers' ends while unfortunately I have not. Subsequent examination develops the figure of about 160,000 horsepower capacity as representing the present total requirements of the city of Los Angeles, with proper reserve in addition to insure reliability of service. I was about to say a moment ago, with regard to the aggregate amount of power which will be developed on the Colorado River at Boulder Canyon, 600,000 horsepower, that unquestionably the interests in the territory to be served from that site will not remain without some further power development in the meantime, but it is very sure, as far as we can in any way humanly forecast the situation, that the future power developments within the next six or eight years are going to run far short of the requirements in that period, so that at the time the Boulder Canyon project shall be completed and ready for service there will be a very large void for power ready to be filled up promptly from that source, and I am satisfied in my own mind that within a very short period of time after the completion of that project the entire output of the plant will be required and can be marketed at figures which, as I shall show in a moment, will represent an economic security for the money invested. Furthermore, I believe that the communities interested in this power will be ready, on the completion of the project, to become immediately responsible not only for such an amount of power from the Boulder Canyon plant as shall represent their immediate deficits, but also for such further amounts as will anticipate to some extent their future, and that in this manner the section of the country interested in this power will be ready to assume responsibility for the entire output of the plant and thus relieve the Government of all carrying charges. I believe that I am justified in saying that the city of Los Angeles is ready to assume such responsibility to an extent far beyond its presumable deficit of power at the time the Boulder Canyon project is ready for service, and I am confident that other communities will in like manner wish to safeguard against their future growth. I believe that on a conservative estimate, from one-half to two-thirds of the total output will be immediately required by the time the project is ready for service and that responsibility for the balance will be eagerly accepted by communities interested, thus covering the entire carrying charges as already stated. Mr. RAKER. Through what means and from what source are you going to secure the power you say you need between now and the time the Boulder Canyon dam is completed? Professor DURAND. The private power companies in the southern part of the State have still other projects in contemplation and in progress of development. These projects, by and large, will cost more per unit than will the power at the Boulder Canyon Dam, but the customers will not wait; there will be a market for power which will justify the development of some considerable amounts in the meantime but I can not undertake to say how much. Mr. RAKER. Is it your view that the private individuals and concerns that are now developing power and will have developed it by eight years from now, if the Boulder Canyon Dam is completed in eight years, will, at the time the Boulder Canyon Dam is working, lose their customers? Professor DURAND. No. I mean, they will not be able to develop power enough to supply the market. Mr. RAKER. In the meantime? Professor DURAND. Yes. Mr. RAKER. When the Boulder Canyon Dam is completed and 600,000 horsepower is developed will these private indiduals and concerns be put out of business? Professor DURAND. No; I take it they will not be put out of business, but there may be required some readjustment of rates. Mr. RAKER. Of course, that would be one of the things to be adjusted, but Mr. Hoover says that all of those things are now adjusted by commissions and, therefore, we do not have to worry about them, but if in the next 8 or 10 years there was a large development outside of Los Angeles by these private concerns and private individuals to supply the demand that is increasing all the time, I was wondering whether or not by the construction of the Boulder Canyon Dam they would thereby be put in the position that their property would be practically worthless? Mr. BARBOUR. Would not the developments in the other parts of the State result in the consumption of all that power? Even though Los Angeles did not use it other sections would be developing and thus result in a demand for more power in those sections. Mr. RAKER. I was trying to get the professor's view on that. Professor DURAND. My opinion as to that point is this: That there will possibly be required some careful consideration of rates on the part of the rate-making power at that period of time, but I do not foresee the putting out of business of any of these present or even immediately prospective power plants. I believe, furthermore, it is a fact that certain of these power companies are looking forward with considerable care to the projects which they propose undertaking in the immediate future, having an eye on the possibilities of the developments at Boulder Canyon Dam; they are, in other words, discounting to some extent the possible developments at Boulder Canyon Dam. To develop this thought in a little further detail, I should consider that by the time the Boulder Canyon project is ready for power service, the actual deficit or void awaiting to be filled will amount to one-third of the total output or more, and this without counting on more than the normal growth in present modes of power use. Additional or new industrial uses of hydropower, stimulated by favorable rates, will undoubtedly be planned for operation concident with the completion of the project. Among such uses mention may be made of irrigation pumping, mining and chemical industries and the electrification of railroads in the section within economic reach of this source of power. It is a matter of common knowledge that the Sante Fe Railroad is already manifesting an active interest in the possibilities of power from this source. Those new or extended uses, over and above what may be termed normal growth, will easily carry the total demand at the completion of the project to the amount of one-half or twothirds the total output, as stated at an earlier point. This would leave say one-third of the output only, as reserve against future growth, an amount representing only a moderate provision against the future and certainly in nowise justifying the scrapping of any of the earlier existing plants. Furthermore there are certain areas served by these existing companies which would not so readily come within the scope of service from Boulder Canyon and normal growth within such areas would aid in furnishing an outlet for their power product. Again, it is common practice with power companies, as the time approaches for bringing in a new station or a new block of power, to allow the margin of reserve power (power capacity over and above that normally required and serving as an insurance against interruptions in service) to gradually decrease, thus diminishing the margin intended to secure reliability and continuity of service. This policy will undoubtedly be followed in the case of the Boulder Canyon project and all power companies will thus anticipate service from this source by a continuous decrease in the desirable margin of reserve power and in a correspondingly increased use of their steam plants. This is what was referred to a moment ago as an anticipation of or a discounting of the future with reference to the influence of Boulder Canyon on the general power situation. It thus results that a considerable block of the Boulder Canyon power, when brought in, may be considered as no more than restoring the proper margin of reserve power desirable in order to insure continuity and reliability of service. Taking these various considerations into account, it seems clear that there need be no apprehension that the advent of Boulder Canyon power will result in putting out of business the earlier and smaller plants. There will be use for all the hydropower which we shall be able to develop. Mr. SMITH of Idaho. Do you know whether or not the city of Los Angeles is in a position or is inclined to make a proposition to the Government to take over and use a certain amount of this power in the event the Boulder Canyon Dam is constructed, so that we might have some idea as to when the Government will be reimbursed for its expenditure? |