56-516 75 Pt. 1C 43 BACKGROUND Studies on Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings (SHACOB) were initiated in September 1973 under the direction of the Research Applied to National Needs (RANN) branch of the National Science Foundation (NSF) to provide baseline information for the widespread application of solar energy. The potential application is dependent upon many factors costs, systems performance, climatic variation, societal, legal and environmental aspects are representative of these. The solution of such varied, interrelated problems requires a systematic, multi-disciplinary approach. Such an approach was structured by NSF. It involves participation by government, universities, and industry. The objective of the initial phases of this program are to set the stage for widespread utilization by establishment of the basic feasibility (Phase O) and the design (Phase 1) and implementation (Phase 2) of Proof-of-Concept Experiments (POCE). One major objective of Phase O is the establishment of an overall experimental program plan to provide visible evidence of the practicality of heating and cooling buildings with solar energy within the socio-economic environment of the United States. KEY STUDY ELEMENTS In order to fulfill the study objectives, the elements shown in Table 1 were addressed. The reference time frame for this study is from the present through the end of the century. STUDY BASIS AND APPROACH Emphasis has been placed in deriving a realistic technology base. Potential component and system improvements will improve the cost-effectiveness of future systems and provide increased acceleration to widescale usage. However, it was not the intent of this study to couple the utilization of solar energy with technology "breakthroughs" that may or may not occur. The conclusions reached here should be both conservative and achievable. Each of the elements in Table 1 were quantified, where STUDY TEAM AND METHODOLOGY The General Electric Space Division conducted the study and was supported by TEMPO (GE Center for Advanced Studies) and the Corporate Market Research organization. Other Company components, such as the Corporate Research and Development Center, Central Air Conditioning Department, and the Plastics Department were consulted on many issues. Major roles were played by the University of Pennsylvania and the Ballinger Company. The team organization is shown in Figure 1. The study was organized into ten interrelated tasks as shown in Figure 2. Tasks 1, 2, 3, and 5 produced the 3 technical evaluation of alternate solar systems based, where applicable, on the economic, demographic, and environmental data produced in Task 4. Definition and planning of proof-of-concept experiments (POCE) were accomplished in Tasks 6, 8, and 9. Possible special projects which were, in effect, early POCE's were studied in Task 7. Implementation and communication plans to accelerate acceptance of solar energy, where it is applicable, were developed under Task 10. SCENARIO PROJECTIONS A common starting point for any study is a statement of the assumptions. This project is concerned with a time frame of at least 25 years, from now until AD 2000. Assumptions on the expected or projected state of society over this period will constitute a baseline scenario. This scenario, significant elements of which are shown in Figure 3, postulates no major wars or depressions during the period to AD 2000, although it is hard to find a twenty-five year period in the country's history for which these postulates are true. If these happen, the alternative scenarios they produce are so varied that no reasonable "surprise-free" scenario can include them. All dollar values used in this study are given in terms of 1970 dollars. A sound starting place for economic assumptions about the period to AD 2000 is a projection of the future population and the future productivity per worker. While other factors enter, these are the two most important determinants of the quantitative economic growth. STUDY BASIS AND APPROACH (CONT) In the baseline scenario, the population of the United States will grow from 205 million in 1970 to 264 million in 2000; an average growth rate of 0.85 percent. This corresponds to the Bureau of the Census projection known as Series E (Bureau of Census, 1972). The baseline projection GNP in AD 2000 will be $2400 billion compared to $977 billion in 1970. This is considerably lower than many estimates made within the past few years. Economic indicators derive from the total labor force and estimates of the production per worker and the unemployment rate. The GNP is divided into categories called "Kinds of Purchases." Personal consumption and government expenditures will grow most rapidly. Net exports may vary widely from year to year. The "kinds of outputs" which these purchases buy are categorized as industries. Government will grow the fastest at an average rate of 3.7 percent. Both contract construction and services will grow faster than the 3 percent rate for GNP. Manufacturing, agriculture and mining will grow slower than the GNP. These rates symbolize the state of society: well beyond the agriculture stage, and passing rapidly from the industrial stage to a post-industrial era. Alternate high and low scenarios have been considered to provide the range of uncertainty. The high and low estimates of total population in AD 2000 are 300 million and 251 million. The high estimate of GNP in AD 2000 is 3400 GOVT, EXPEND NET EXPORTS KINDS OF OUTPUTS (818) AGRIC, & MINING MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION GOVT. ENTERPRISES SERVICES OTHER) Figure 3. Economic and Energy Scenarios The potential for application of solar energy systems for heating and 5 billion and assumes an average growth in productivity One of the major considerations affecting economic viability For dollar energy assessments, the retail fuel price at the STUDY BASIS AND APPROACH (CONT) factors. The fuel price projections were arrived at by a detailed examination of the interaction of supply and demand, based on historical precedents and projections of technological, economic and political developments. The units are expressed in terms of fuel energy content and Fuel shortage in the face of increasing demand, coupled 6 |