1

1 Excludes premium pay for overtime and night work.
Data for Reading pertain to a November 1950 pay period.

ings decreased between October 1949 and March 1950 in each area. In Hickory-Statesville, for example, the range of 70 cents (from 66 cents for menders to $1.36 for adjusters and fixers) in October 1949 dropped to a range of 58 cents in March 1950 (from 78 cents for menders to $1.36 for adjusters and fixers). In the other two areas, decreases in the spread were somewhat smaller.

By the fall of 1950, additional wage adjustments, reflecting at least in part the post-Korea wage movement, had occurred. The level of earnings for all workers had increased to 93 cents. in Hickory-Statesville, 99 cents in Reading, and $1.09 in Winston-Salem-High Point. Whereas in the earlier period (October 1949 to March 1950) average earnings of men had generally increased less than those of women, in the March-October 1950 period the increase in average earnings for men was greater than that for women.

Average earnings for all occupations studied rose between October 1949 and October 1950, about two-thirds of the increases ranging from 5 to 15 percent. The selected men's occupations in each area, most of the women's jobs in WinstonSalem-High Point, and half of the women's jobs in Reading, showed greater increases between March and October 1950 than from October 1949 to March 1950. In Hickory-Statesville, on the

3 Insufficient data to permit presentation of an average.

4 Workers performing a combination job of folding and boxing.

other hand, average earnings for most women's jobs studied increased more during the earlier period.

Virtually all mills in Winston-Salem-High Point and Reading, and nearly half of those in Hickory-Statesville, reported general wage increases between March and October 1950, which usually applied to all plant workers.

-FRED W. MOHR Division of Wage Statistics

1 Data were collected by field representatives under the direction of the Bureau's regional wage analysts. More detailed information on wages and related practices in each of the areas is available on request.

The wage information summarized in this article relates to men's seamless hosiery mills employing 21 or more workers. In October 1950 approximately 13,000 workers were employed in plants of this size in the 3 areas studied.

Wage Chronology No. 4: Bituminous-Coal Mines1

Supplement No. 1

THE 1948 NATIONAL WAGE AGREEMENT between the United Mine Workers of America (Ind.) and the associations representing the bituminous

Consumer Finances Survey, 1951; Preliminary Findings

1

AN INFLATIONARY TREND in prices during 1951 is anticipated by purchasers of consumer commodities, according to a survey sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The survey, conducted early in 1951, indicated that at least 7 in every 10 consumers believed that prices of the durable goods that they buy would rise during the year. At the same time only 4 in 10 expected increases in their incomes. About half of all consumers reported that their earnings in early 1951 were at a higher rate than in 1950. Approximately a fifth of the consumers surveyed reported lower earning rates in 1951. A comparison of total income received in 1950 with that received in 1949 shows the same proportions. In both early 1951 and 1950, about 70 percent of those surveyed reported that they held some liquid assets (bank deposits and Government savings bonds); but the proportion of such holdings which exceeded $2,000 had decreased by 1951.

In 1951 a smaller proportion of consumers planned to buy new houses than in 1950. Fewer expected to buy new or used automobiles. About as many consumers as in early 1950 planned to buy other major durable goods (television, furniture, etc.), but plans were less certain than in 1950.

The survey findings, it is stated, "represent only one body of data indicative of tendencies in economic prospects and should always be viewed along with a wealth of other statistics reported currently through various governmental and private organizations."

Financial Expectations of Consumers

Imposition of controls late in January 1951 caused little immediate change in the belief that prices would go higher. Sizes of consumers' incomes and liquid assets held appeared to make no difference in their expectations concerning price rises; neither did opinions as to whether or not war was imminent.

The proportion of consumers who expected their incomes to rise during the year (approximately 40 percent) was 10 percent greater than

in 1950. However, nearly 40 percent expected no change in income, more than 10 percent expected lower incomes, and another 10 percent expressed uncertainty. The decrease in the proportion who planned to buy major durable goods. may be partly explained by the fact that a considerably greater proportion expected price rises than expected increases in their incomes.

Financial Position of Consumers

Only about half of the consumers with higher incomes in early 1951 than at the time of the 1950 survey stated that they felt "better off." Reports of a worsened financial position since the time of the previous survey were somewhat more numerous than in 1950 and nearly as numerous as in 1949, at the bottom of a minor recession. (These reports appeared to be concentrated in professional and semiprofessional and clerical and sales groups, with incomes of $2,000 and over.) Inflationary price rises, tax increases, and debts incurred probably account for this evaluation, notwithstanding that for the past year more than twice as many income increases as income decreases were reported.

Consumer prices in the year ending January 1951, as indicated by the Consumers' Price Index, rose 9 percent. This approximately offset a 9-percent rise in aggregate personal income after taxes, which Department of Commerce data indicated for the same period.

A current rate of earnings higher than in the previous year was reported by nearly half of all consumers; a lower rate was reported by a fifth. The median income rose from $2,700 in 1949 to about $3,000 in 1950. Professional and semiprofessional, skilled and unskilled, and clerical and sales workers reported increases most frequently. Farm operators, as in the previous year, reported a smaller proportion of increases and a larger proportion of decreases than other occupational groups. However, for farm operators, increases outnumbered decreases, in marked contrast with 1948-49, when the declines were one and a half times the increases.

Some liquid assets (bank deposits and United States savings bonds) were held by 7 in every 10 consumers, as indicated in both the 1950 and 1951 surveys. But the number of holdings amounting

to more than $2,000 declined from 1950 to 1951, and, as shown in the former survey, the decline appeared to be concentrated in the group having incomes of $5,000 or more.

Buying Plans for 1951

Uncertainty regarding availability, quality, prices, and credit appeared to have influenced consumers' plans for buying houses to a greater extent in early 1951 than in the previous year. Nearly as many of those surveyed were considering purchase of houses, new or existing, as in the record year 1950, but definiteness of intention was less marked. A smaller proportion planned to buy new houses; little or no change was apparent in the number expecting to buy existing houses.

Of the three-tenths of consumers who reported familiarity with recently effective regulation of real-estate credit, between 5 and 10 percent indicated that such regulation had influenced their plans. Two chief effects noted were withdrawal from the housing market and larger down pay

ments.

Definitely fewer consumer plans to buy automobiles-either new or used-during the coming year were reported in early 1951 than in early 1950. Slightly more than 4 in 10 of those expecting to buy automobiles planned to buy them without credit-approximately the same proportion as in early 1950. Although little or no decline had occurred in the number of consumers considering purchase of television sets, furniture, refrigerators, etc., less certainty about making the purchases was indicated. A tendency was shown in 1951 by consumers to plan their purchases for the first rather than the second half of the year. Concern for availability of the items rather than belief that prices would increase appeared to be the influencing factor.

The survey did not measure certain factors which may have influenced decisions concerning purchases. These factors are (1) expectation of production cut-backs; (2) anticipatory buying in the past autumn and early winter; (3) lack of confidence concerning personal financial prospects; (4) a shift in preference as to allocation of disposable income. To the extent that consumers at the beginning of 1951 may have been unduly

doubtful concerning availability of goods and their own financial prospects, purchases later in the year may be larger than is indicated by early plans.

Attitudes Toward Forms of Investment

Preferences of consumers with incomes of $3,000 or more as to forms of investment were included in the survey. Seventy percert of those surveyed in early 1951 indicated a preference for U. S. savings bonds and bank deposits together as modes of saving-compared with 80 percent 2 years earlier. U. S. savings bonds continued to be the favorite investment, being named as first choice by about half of the over$3,000 group in 1951. This proportion was somewhat smaller than in 1950, and reflected changes in the investment preferences of those with incomes between $3,000 and $5,000. Deposits of current savings in banks were preferred by about 10 percent in early 1951, compared with 20 percent at the beginning of 1950. This decrease had occurred principally in preferences of consumers with incomes of $5,000 or more.

Real estate and common stock together were the first choice of 20 percent of those in the over$3,000 group in early 1951, compared with 10 percent in early 1949. As in previous years, the income group that most frequently expressed this preference was that of highest income, the $7,500and-over group.

As in the past, the most usual reason given for preferring savings bonds was their safety; next was the interest rate; and third the patriotic motive. Rate of interest was mentioned less frequently in 1951 than in 1949, but the patriotic motive was cited oftener. Reasons for preference of other forms of savings were not available when preliminary results of the survey were published.

Roughly a tenth of the consumers surveyed own some savings bonds that will mature in 1951 or 1952. The amount involved is less than $200 in half the instances, between $200 and $999 in twofifths, and $1,000 or more in a tenth. About a third of those whose bonds would mature in 1951 or 1952 had no plans as to use of the funds. Of those who had plans, about three-fourths indicated some form of noninflationary saving, and approximately half expected to reinvest in savings bonds.

1 Data are from Selected Preliminary Results of the 1951 Survey of Consumer Finances (in Federal Reserve Bulletin, Federal Reserve System, Washington, April 1951, p. 385).

The Sixth Annual Survey of Consumer Finances, which was sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, was conducted by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan. Release of preliminary findings was made possible by an experimental program to speed the tabulation of certain parts of the survey in which usefulness of the data depends in part on their timeliness.

t

The preliminary findings are based on simplified tabulations of about 2,800 interviews in January and February 1951, in 66 sampling areas throughout the country. An additional 600 interviews will be included in the final figures to be published early in the summer of 1951. The interview unit is the "consumer spending unit," ordinarily a family in which income was pooled for living expenses.