This is of great significance to me as we approach this problem because it seems to me when man undertakes to regulate the weather or to take upon himself the responsibility of doing something about weather, weather modification, then he makes himself liable for any bad effects that might happen to anyone weatherwise, whether they are directly traceable to what he is doing in his weather modification efforts or not.

I had a little experience with this.

It fell to my lot to do some of the details working out the St. Lawrence Seaway on the power project with Canada. When we took Lake Ontario and changed the levels at Lake Ontario from the state of nature to manmade regulations we had a lineup of people who said, "Whom do we sue when we are damaged by wave action at our summer homes on Lake Ontario?"

Even though we sought to make an improvement for all concerned by increasing the minimum level for navigation purposes, by taking the crest off the top to help the people who had summer homes on the lake or year-round homes on the lake, we found ourselves faced with the responsibility of being accountable to anyone who alleged that he was damaged by weather in that whole vicinity.

Now how do we address ourselves to such a far-reaching problem as this?

Mr. MALONE. I believe, sir, if I may revert to John Von Neumann again, that he pointed the way in his famous article in Fortune magazine. He said there would be no novel cure-all but "a long sequence of small correct decisions."

I believe we are going to have to approach this problem with the enormity you have sketched out by a series of small steps. I don't believe it is possible or intellectually honest to sit here and tell you that I or anyone else knows the answer to issues that we are posing. Senator JORDAN. Dr. MacDonald?

Dr. MACDONALD. Yes. I think the problems you raise are crucial to the whole question of how we evolve a weather modification program. I think your comments also point out the necessity of coupling predictions with modifications.

In my prepared statement I said one of the goals for the future is to be able to take a given meteorological situation, a decision is made to perturb it or not, perhaps let us say we cloud seed it, and be able to predict what the results of that experiment will be.

It is only when we develop that predictive capability to a sufficient extent that we have the same kind of reliance on it as we do on present forecasts, and it will be imperfect at best, but none the less we will then be able to make decisions in such a way that we can reduce the damage or the ill effects and maximize the return.

But it is necessary-I wish to underline this in a very important way that the needed research to develop that capability be pushed very hard. We must have that before we can really go into massive weather modification systems.

I cannot see us attempting to carry out even very large scale precipitation and enhancement operations without the ability, at least, to predict some of the consequences of such actions.

Senator JORDAN. We always have the problem of trying to convince this claimant, who alleged he was damaged, and his attorney that he might have been damaged worse in a state of nature.

Dr. MACDONALD. Yes. I think, if we did have this predicted capability, taking one of these small steps that Dr. Malone speaks of, that at least one can compare and say, "Well, if we had done this this would have happened, if we had not seeded this would have happened." Whether this would ever stand up in a court of law, of course, is something else.

Senator JORDAN. Thank you.

Senator ANDERSON. Thank you very much. You have been very interesting.

Dr. MACDONALD. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Senator ANDERSON. Now we will hear from Dr. Chamberlain. STATEMENT OF A. B. CHAMBERLAIN, VICE PRESIDENT OF COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; ACCOMPANIED BY TOM JONES, DIVISION DIRECTOR, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION; AND DR. EARL DRESSLER, ATMOSPHERIC PROGRAM, NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Mr. CHAMBERLAIN. Mr. Chairman:

My name is A. B. Chamberlain. I am vice president of Colorado State University. I am accompanied this afternoon by Tom Jones, Division Director of Environmental Sciences of the National Science Foundation, who will speak on behalf of the National Science Foundation; and Dr. Earl Dressler, of the Atmospheric Program of the National Science Foundation.

I would like to present to you a statement in my capacity as draft Chairman of the Special Commission on Weather Modification. This statement reads as follows:

The results of the work of National Science Foundation Special Commission on Weather Modification are very pertinent as you consider S. 2875. The Commission was charted to make recommendations to the National Science Foundation and to provide information requested by a committee of the Federal Council on Science and Technology. The assignment included consideration of the physical, legal, social, biological, and political aspects of weather and climate modification.

INTRODUCTION

Man's growing knowledge of the natural environment has given him an increasing awareness of the changes taking place in his earthly habitat. Fortunately his increasing knowledge has also indicated some possible means of deliberate modification of the environment. This knowledge may make it possible for him to plan effectively for conservation and development of the total global environment for the benefit of man. Man is rapidly learning he cannot consider himself free to exploit the air, water, land, and growing things of the earth without degradation of the quality of his environment.

The major issue of public policy considered by the Commission is simply stated in the form of the following question. Are the scientific and engineering possibilities of deliberate weather and climate modifications sufficiently promising of significant social benefit to indicate the time has arrived for the Nation to direct substantially larger resources of money and manpower to the many facets of the field? The

Commission concluded the question should be answered in the affirmative. For reasons of scientific, human, biological, legal and international need the time has arrived to greatly expand the Nation's activities in weather and climate modification. Such a program must consider modification of both natural systems and the adverse changes induced over cities by air pollution. Such a national program will require a budget increase of at least $40 to $50 million per year by 1970 over the fiscal year 1966 level for weather and climate modification research and development activities.

SCIENTIFIC PROSPECTS

The Commission feels the study of weather and climate modification is ready to pass from being considered a speculative field to one ready for a rapid expansion of carefully planned research and development. Many interesting and potentially valuable scientific and engineering opportunities are becomng evident that will attract some of the Nation's best minds to the field if fiscal resources are made available to support the intellectual talent of industry, academic institutions and government agencies.

The atmosphere can be viewed as a complex physical system in which changes in air motion will take place in response to identifiable forces. If the forces are altered, in principle the motion of the air can be influenced. Therefore, in principle, meaningful modification of the weather and climate should be feasible if one can demonstrate the capability to alter these natural forces so as to produce predictable consequences. In a practical sense, it is necessary to establish only beyond reasonable doubt that the cause and effect are related; and that the effect will lead to socially desirable results. Aside from intellectual curiosity, which admittedly has great value in itself, this has been the central problem of weather modification research.

Progress has been made. That seeding (the cause) can dissipate supercooled fog (the effect) has been so clearly demonstrated it is moving to the operational phase for some airports.

On a larger scale, there is evidence (though somewhat ambiguous) to support the view that precipitation from some types of clouds can be increased by the order of 10 percent by seeding. The question of corresponding decreases outside the target area is unresolved. Hail and lightning research is beginning to show some promise. A program of large, carefully instrumented and statistically designed field experiment is needed. These will take a great deal of money.

The study of the energy levels of atmospheric subsystems such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and extratropical cyclones leads to the conclusion that it is not practical to think of altering these subsystems by direct application of energy. Yet the study of instabilities in the atmosphere indicates at least four kinds of instabilities may be susceptible to man's efforts to "trigger" natural reactions, thereby potentially obtaining a large result for a relatively small input of energy. To affectively utilize these "triggers" in a way which will not result in undesirable consequences will require a great deal of thoretical, laboratory and field research.

Improved prediction of weather phenomena may be as important in many cases as modification, in terms of social and economic benefits.

Air pol

For this and others a global observation network will be necessary. Numerical simulation studies on large computers need to be expanded. The Commission was greatly concerned about the inadvertent modification of weather and climate due to the activities of man. lution from our cities is an example. This is a problem of grave importance. Little is understood of the weather and climate modification being induced by this means, or of ways to modify the weather so as to dissipate or alleviate smog and ventilation problems of urban environ

ments.

Weather modification is usually assumed to mean cloud seeding. Yet this is certainly not the only means of weather and climate modification. Other means exist. Since the atmosphere interacts with the expanses of earth and sea it may be possible to modify the characteristics of the land or the sea and thereby modify the weather and climate. Man's ability to induce large-scale alterations of the land and sea continues to increase. Such nonatmospheric means of modify ing weather and climate also need to receive increased attention. The possible consequences of such alteration of weather and climate need a great deal of study since it appears some of the technical possibilities, though now largely speculative, could be irreversible.

The Commission concludes the scientific and engineering prospects of meaningful progress in weather modification are sufficiently attractive that a great deal more manpower should be drawn into the field. This expansion of activity will require talent from several intellectual disciplines. Also required will be a great increase in the logistics support for field and laboratory research and operation. The results of increased concentration on the field would be important not only to those interested in precipitation augmentation but also the entire field of atmospheric resources.

BIOLOGICAL RELATIONSHIPS

Anything that has a significant effect upon plants and animals is of primary concern to man. Plants and animals are the foundation of his existence. Modifying weather and climate may intitiate changes in the abundance of certain plants and animals. It may also induce instabilities in numerous biologic populations-including those that prey on man and challenge his existence. Thus, a national program of weather and climate modification must include support for a substantial research program in ecology and related biological sciences.

The field of ecology has developed to a considerable level of sophis tication in recent years. Yet, to date, no real opportunities have been available for this knowledge to be applied to a long-range large scale field experiment in weather modification. Thus it is not known how adequate the present state of knowledge is for making good predictions of the biological consequence of specific weather modifica tion projects, except under limited conditions. For example, the ecological system associated with agricultural fields is well enough understood that good predictions can be made. But in a more complex system such as that of large uncultivated watersheds containing many species of interacting plants and animals it is not now possible to make quantitative predictions. One should add, however, that for many social purposes of weather modification a qualitative description of anticipated effects on the biological system may be adequate for public

area.

policy decisionmaking. Atmospheric water resources may be such an Living things are adapted to the weather that prevails. Any change in the weather will be generally deleterious to them. Weather and climate modification over large areas of a few hundred square miles or larger for long periods of time is likely to induce a decreased stability of biologic communities. This instability would manifest itself at least as an initial increase in pests, weeds, and pathogens.

It is extremely important that a national weather modification pro-gram involving large areas for field experiments have fiscal support for ecological studies by numerical simulation and both quantitative and qualitative field studies. Much better knowledge is needed than now available regarding the interactions of weather and organisms. Such research is expensive. The research studies may span several years in order to obtain meaningful conclusions.

The largest social credit item for weather modification is likely to be an increase in the production of food and forage plants on the drier parts of the earth's surface.

STATISTICS

As is well known, a controversy among statisticians over the validity of the conclusions of early research did not encourage weather modification research during the late 1950's. The situation is better now. The current central question on the role of statistics in weather and climate modification research is not whether to use statistics but how to use it in the early design through to the analysis of the research data.

The national program in weather and climate modification needs to provide for support of statisticians to work on all facets of physical, engineering, and biological studies in the field. Furthermore, support is needed for basic statistical methodology research. Arrangements are needed which will encourage a continuous dialog between statisticians and those scientists and engineers conducting studies in weather modification.

HUMAN EFFECTS

Sound public policy in the face of uncertainty about the techniques of weather modification requires that research also be initiated on the social and economic effects. Such research is needed to fully exploit what may be an historic opportunity to improve the environment for humanity and, at the same time, avoid activities which might be detrimental to man. So intricate are the interlocking motivations in human behavior that subtle changes may be initiated by weather modification and not even be detected. Some beneficial changes, such as bountiful crops and their impact on the economy, can be readily followed. But because the organization of society is so complex it is not evident whether the quality of life may be enhanced or degraded by every possibility of weather and climate modification. It seems clear, for example, that the power and motion of severe storms provides some of the most exhilerating experiences that the human mind assimilates. Would it be of social benefit to completely control weather and remove these phenomena from the realm of human experience? How