(9) AUTONOMY The SWMF must have a degree of autonomy and be free to collect and, whe the occasion arises, to publish data and evaluations at its own discretion. I particular, SWMF should be financially independent of the institutions engage in actual experimentation with weather control. This would insure impartialit in the analysis performed by a group which would have no vested interests i the results. Perhaps the best way to achieve this autonomy is to locate the SWMF withi the academic community rather than to have it attached to a governmenta agency. [Enclosure B] MOTIVATION FOR THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE THE STATISTICAL WEATHER MODIFICATION FACILITY (1) USEFULNESS OF "COLLATERAL DATA" ON WEATHER MODIFICATION EXPERIMENTS The usefulness of collateral data on weather modification experiments ma be dramatically illustrated by the following fact: As revealed at the recen meeting "Weather Modification Section of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium" (se attached program), the first and, thus far, the only unambiguous evidence tha cloud seeding with silver iodide can increase precipitation came from the hai prevention experiment, so-called Grossversuch III, performed in Switzerlan from 1957 to 1963. Here, then, precipitation amounts were "collateral” to th purpose of the experiment and it is pure luck that they were published in th annual reports. The significance of the precipitation data was largely over looked. Thus, for example, the 1964 preliminary report of the NAS Panel dis misses the Swiss experiment in one sentence to the effect that no significant effec of seeding on hail incidence was found. (In actual fact, a more detailed analysi revealed that seeding increased the incidence of hail.) (2) A SPECIAL AGENCY TO ASSEMBLE AND TO PRESERVE DATA ON COMPLETED EXPERIMENTS IS NEEDED Here, again, Grossversuch III is bound to be considered as an intrusion and b resented. A special agency, established on the principle that the results of al experiment performed from public funds are public property, an agency estab lished for the specific purpose of preserving this property, would be treate differently. (3) NEED FOR THEORETICAL RESEARCH IN STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY AND THE DESIG! OF EXPERIMENTS Experiments in physics and chemistry are as old as these sciences. They wer going on without special theory and with great success, because in the laboratorie it was possible to isolate the factors studied and to eliminate extraneous source of variation. This was not and is not the case in the domains where great varia bility is an inherent feature of the subjects of study. Cases in point are agricul tural, medical, and, more generally, biological studies. Here the variability fron one plot of land to the next, from one patient or from one rat to another is s large as to hide the effects of treatments studied. In these domains, scientifi experimentation was born in the 1920's and 1930's with the foundation, by R. A Fisher, of special discipline: theory of experimentation. Through the work o Fisher and of his numerous followers, the theory of experimentation spread ove many domains of science. However, thus far very little has been done with reference to weather modification experiments where there are special specifi difficulties. In parallel with the extension of the theory of experimental design there are other statistical theoretical problems to be solved. Such work as ha been done already indicates that merely by a change of a statistical techniqu and/or by a modification of the experimental design, the time of experimenta tion necessary for detecting a significant effect of cloud-seeding may be shortene by a factor of two or more. Research of this kind requires special qualifications, those of a mathematica statistician. However, it cannot be conducted in the abstract, but requires con tacts with live experimental and observational data. The creation of the pro posed Statistical Weather Modification Facility would provide an appropriat ground for such contacts. Senator ANDERSON. We are very happy to have here today Senator Alan Bible, a longtime advocate of the causes of the West, and Senator Jordan of Idaho, whom I've found to be one of the most knowledgeable men on the committee. He represents the minority. I would like Senator Bible to make a statement for the record. Senator BIBLE. Mr. Chairman, as I have on so many occasions during my years in the U.S. Senate, I want to congratulate you on the leadership that you provided in initiating hearings on S. 2875. My interest in this program goes back, not quite as long as yours, but it does go back to 1957. As a member of the Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee, I chaired hearings on a bill at that time for experimental research in cloud modification. Again in 1959 I cosponsored legislation designed to improve our knowledge in this very, very interesting field. In view of the lack of urgency which was indicated by the National Science Foundation, I proposed, in 1964, that the Bureau of Reclamation appropriation be increased from $100,000 to $1,100,000 to implement a full-scale campaign to increase precipitation on the Colorado River. Data supplied by the Bureau of Reclamation indicate the benefits of increased rainfall through weather modification could be tremendous. An additional inch of precipitation in the Colorado River Basin above Glen Canyon Dam would produce a runoff of 575,000 acre-feet. This extra amount of flow through Federal powerplants could boost income, at established power rates, by $2.5 million. Naturally, this additional water could be available for agricultural, municipal, and industrial uses. Allowing for losses in runoff, this added inch of precipitation would still provide 500,000 acre-feet of water for irrigation which, based on a 1962 water-crop benefit formula, would produce a gross crop income of $24.7 million. Municipal and industrial uses, of course, would increase the value of this extra precipitation even more. These funds were utilized by the Bureau both as grants to universities, including the Desert Research Institute, and for a field program in the basin. Because of the effectiveness of the Bureau's program, the Appropriations Committee approved funding of this program for the present or current fiscal year in the sum of $2,980,000. This is but a step in the right direction. The legislation now before you, Mr. Chairman, would prove whether or not weather control is presently within the grasp of our scientists. As you, yourself, have well said, and I quote you from your statement made in the hearings in Washington, D.C., on March 21: It is readily apparent that it is vital to the public interest to reassess the position of weather modification research with a view toward paralleling Government-supported basic research with more extensive field applications. Again, my congratulations to you, Mr. Chairman, in your initiative in introducing this legislation. In calling the hearings, you have again, as is so often the case, my pledge of complete cooperation in securing enactment of the present bill. Senator ANDERSON. Thank you very much. Senator JORDAN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would just want to join Senator Bible in paying tribute to you in your leadership in this area. I am pleased, indeed, to be a cosponsor of S. 2875 which really works in an area, a new frontier, of which we know not enough. With the enactment of this legislation-we hope it will be enacted-it will enable us to probe into this very important matter of weather modification. I would like to say, too, that I follow you in other committee work. I am pleased to serve on the Senate Space and Aeronautical Sciences Committee, under your leadership, and I find it inspiring and constructive indeed. Senator ANDERSON. I am pleased to have you there. I noticed as I came in a friend of mine, Don Diego, a Navajo Indian. He asked us to put a resolution in the record which I ask be included at this point, (The resolution follows:) RESOLUTION Whereas Pueblo Indian people of New Mexico have contributed to the economy and growth of the State and rely upon the purity of the waters therein for domes tic and agricultural uses; and Whereas some of the important rivers and streams, such as the Rio Grande, and the Rio Jemez, and the Rio San Jose, serve domestic, commercial, and irrigation needs for our people; and Whereas there exists a genuine concern over the pollution of the streams in the Rio Grande Valley and other areas, posing a threat to the health and safety of the people who depend upon these waters for their use; and Whereas the Pueblo Indian people have found that this water pollution seems to occur mostly when the natural flow of the water is low, at which time more refuse from storm sewers and silt, etc., flow into the main streams, as well as the contributions of waste from the ever-growing trend toward development of properties upstream without regard to welfare of water users downstream, thus increasing the seriousness of this problem: Now, therefore, be it Resolved, That we hereby take official notice of this possible threat to the health and safety of the Pueblo Indian people in the Rio Grande Valley, and elsewhere in the State of New Mexico where this situation exists, being aware of the possible adverse effect on the agricultural and economic future of water users in our pueblos, do hereby respectfully request that a serious study be made into this matter of pollution of our streams to insure the health of our people and the natural growth of our agricultural crops, and to the end that this problem be eliminated. (Signed) DIEGO ABEITA, Chairman, Irrigation Committee, All Indian Pueblo Council. Senator ANDERSON. The first witness is from the New Mexico State University, the vice president of research, Dr. Duncan. We are very happy to have you here and appreciate your coming. I was very pleased yesterday to have a fine conversation with Dr. Corbett, the president of the university, and a longtime friend and a wonderful I am sorry that his situation was such that he could not come. But we welcome Dr. Duncan in his place. man. STATEMENT OF DR. RICHARD H. DUNCAN, VICE PRESIDENT OF RESEARCH, NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY, ACCOMPANIED BY DR. RALPH STUCKY, DIRECTOR, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH INSTITUTE; AND DR. NERANDA GUNAJI, PROFESSOR OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Dr. DUNCAN. First, I was asked by Dr. Corbett to express his regrets for not being here, Senator Anderson, as he has taken such an interest in this legislation. I will read through our statement and then answer any questions ou may have. New Mexico State University welcomes this opportunity to present his statement to the Subcommittee on Water and Power Resources f the Senate Interior Committee in Albuquerque, N. Mex. New Mexico State University is well qualified to make an opinion n this subject by virtue of its large research and development proram, its long concern with agricultural research, and the fact that t is the designated State agency in water resources research. The ubject is one of interest to the whole Nation, but it is especially mportant to the arid regions of the Southwest and New Mexico. It is necessary that water in the atmosphere, as well as water in ivers, lakes, and oceans, be considered as an important natural reource. Augmentation of water from the atmosphere is one of the mportant facets of the overall effort on weather modification and ontrol of climate. It must be recognized that weather modification eeks to change the efficiency of natural processes in order to create a etter environment for all people. The complexities of problems inolved, therefore, will encompass many diversified fields of science nd engineering and each field will require the same competence and concentrated efforts of those who are to solve the problems. When pproached by the Nation in this manner, overall scientific advancenent in the area of weather modification will be assured. The initial effort in weather modification was in the fulfillment of the requirements of the Department of Defense. This was followed by research in the universities largely sponsored by the National Science Foundation and by pilot projects supported by industry to fulfill their own specific needs. The time has now arrived for a coordinated national program relative to accelerating the development of scientific knowledge and to apply the available knowledge to the welfare of mankind. This requires the highest level of national support and coordination. Senate bill S. 2875 recognizes the need for increased water resources from the atmosphere. It also incorporates within the same agency the operative and regulatory functions. Since separation of power is a recognized principle of American law and to avoid conflict of interest which may eventually develop, it is suggested that regulatory powers of this bill be separated and be made the topic of another bill. Regulatory powers of weather modification should be assigned to a board or a commission established by the Federal Government and independent from any operative body of the Government. The Federal Power Commission and the Civil Aeronautics Board are examples of separately appointed regulatory bodies of the Federal Government now in use. During the formative period of such a board, it is recommended that the responsibility of regulatory activities of weather modification remain with the assigned responsibilities of the National Science Foundation, where it was placed under Public Law 510. This will insure continuance of the existing programs without interruption and confusion. This bill also recognizes the problem of liability. It is, therefore, necessary to pass appropriate legislation at the earliest possible opportunity to protect the individual, the Government, and other agencies who are engaged in weather modification efforts. 61-553-66-22 Areas of weather modification which are of human necessity and of great interest to specific mission-oriented agencies of the Federal Government are as follows: general circulation modification, U.S. Weather Bureau; severe storm modification, U.S. Weather Bureau; hurricane dissipation, U.S. Weather Bureau and Department of Defense; hail and lightning control, Department of Agriculture; and supercooled fog suppression and modification of warm fog, Federal Aviation Agency and Department of Defense. The appropriate committees in the Senate and the House of Rep resentatives should recognize the importance of weather modification and encourage other mission-oriented agencies of the Federal Govern. ment to fully explore the potential benefits of climate control for the welfare of the Nation. In conclusion, New Mexico State University recommends that— 1. S. 2875 be the first realistic engineering step toward increased national efforts to fulfill those portions of conclusions presented in the two reports of the National Academy of Science and a report by special commission of the National Science Foundation. 2. The Department of the Interior be the agency of the Federal Government for those aspects of weather modification related to increasing the yield of water from atmosphere as a part of its responsibility in the management of the Nation's water resources. 3. The other scientific mission oriented agencies of the Federal Government who might benefit from climate control be directed to formulate their plans and requirements and apply for support directly from Congress. 4. An independent regulatory board be formed to deal with licensing and legal problems of weather modification. 5. Appropriate legislation concerning liability be enacted at the earliest possible opportunity. 6. The National Science Foundation be directed and encouraged to expand its research activities and continue its present responsibilities in the field of weather modification and climate control. 7. The universities, research centers, and industries concerned with atmospheric science be encouraged to continue their activities as predominant forces in the Nation's program in climate control. 8. The coordination of those Federal agencies involved in weather modification be performed through the Office of the Science Adviser of the President. This bill, upon its enactment, will greatly affect and enhance the management and production of the Nation's water resources. New Mexico State University wishes to express sincere thanks to this committee for this opportunity to state its views in relation to S. 2875. Thank you. Senator ANDERSON. Dr. Duncan, you say: "The National Science Foundation be directed and encouraged to expand its research activities and continue its present responsibility in the field of weather modification and climate control." Does that mean that the new work on weather modification would be in the National Science Foundation? Dr. DUNCAN. No, sir. Senator ANDERSON. It has it now. |