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It is estimated that, in order adequately to sample some of the more promising known deposits during the 5-year period, the following will be required: (a) Facilities:

Million 2 ships

*$4 Equipment and instrumentation for sampling (free gear, etc.). (6) Operating costs : Field efforts, 2 ships per year for 5 years-

10 Sample processing, data analysis and interpretation, at $2 million per year.--

10 1 Included in summary budget for item 3-a.

D. Oceanographic surveys of areas of marked data deficiency, such as the South Pacific and polar seas, to include physical, chemical, biological, geological, and geophysical measurements. So little is known concerning extensive areas of the world oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, that prediction of possible economic benefits to the United States from studies of these regions is not now possible. However, it is a national goal of this country to be in the forefront of providing new knowledge of oceans for the future benefit of all mankind, and the international prestige of the United States would certainly gain from studies of these distant ocean areas, particularly if carried out in cooperation with countries bordering these areas. A reasonable goal for these studies would be to bring our knowledge of the vast expanses of the world oceans to a level comparable with that which we now possess for the North Atlantic, where probably the greatest density of observations in space and time now exists. Such a program would require a total field effort of 50 ship-years over a 5-year period, and require an annual expenditure of $10 million. In addition, shorebased evaluation of the data from such a field program would require $10 million per year, for a total annual expenditure over a 5-year period of $100 million. A recent Operations Research, Inc., report* for the Coast and Geodetic Survey estimates $455 million as the cost of a 10-year program to survey the entire world oceans to U.S. standards including the cost of new ship construction.

E. Detailed studies of the temporal and spatial variations in the circulation pattern and water-mass properties in areas in which reasonably good general survey data are available. Motion in the ocean, especially in the surface layers, is turbulent in character with eddies of all sizes passing energy both up and down from the large-scale current patterns through intermediate scales of motion associated in some cases with passing meteorological phenomena to smallscale turbulence and finally to the viscous-dissipation range. These transient motions are, in turn, associated with the temporal and spatial fluctuations in the chemical and physical properties of the ocean waters. An understanding of these fluctuations is important as part of the air-sea interaction study, and also from the standpoint of studies of the movement and mixing of introduced contaminants in the sea. Effective field studies at the time and space scale needed here will require the development of new observing tools, including moored recording buoys for current measurements. Well qualified physical oceanographers will be required for the analysis and interpretation of the observations. Such detailed studies of pertinent areas of the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the equatorial regions of these oceans will require a field effort involving 2 ship-years in each of the 5 years of study, costing $2 million per year. In addition, analysis and interpretation of data will require $2 million per year. Much of the cost of development and construction of special observing tools, such as moored recording buoys, is included in G below. Twentyfive to a hundred buoys will be needed depending on the experiment. This project would expend about $7 million for capital equipment (100 buoys at $50,000 each and $2 million for cables or other means of telemetering the data).

F. Tracking ocean currents with ships and drifting buoys. A great deal of new information about the major current systems of the world could be obtained by tracing their paths with ships and drifting drogue buoys. The major current systems (Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Peru Current, the equatorial currents, etc.) might have combined lengths of some 100,000 miles. Directional changes and the conditions at the boundaries of these major currents must be known in order to understand their influence on the ocean and the atmosphere. Ships and buoys would be used for this task. Ten ships per year for 5 years ($10 million per year) would cost $50 million. Analysis and interpretation will cost an additional $50 million. Another $5 million is recommended for buoys and expendable equipment.

4 Preliminary assessment of the ocean survey shipbuilding program of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, Operations Research, Inc., Technical Report 299, Sept. 15, 1963.

48-071-65--12

G. Synoptic oceanwide observations of lower atmosphere and upper-water layers using recording and transmitting buoy systems.

A recent study by the Weather Bureau suggests that the U.S. economy might save more than $100 million a year if it were possible to deliver accurate short-range forecasts. One problem with present numerical forecasting techniques is the lack of adequate data from the oceanic areas. On the land area of the United States there are 278 observing stations, or one station for every 13,000 square miles. A thousand oceanic weather buoys would provide one buoy for about every 40,000 square miles. Such an increase in the observing network should materially improve the short-range forecast.

Cost estimate.- One oceanic buoy installed and operating costs $100,000 (present cost of MAMOS buoys). Hence, 1,000 such buoys would be $100 million. Mass production servicing should reduce this to about $75 million. Assuming a life expectancy for the buoys of 5 years, 200 buoys should be added to the system each year. Laying, maintenance, and servicing would require 10 ships a year (100 buoys per ship) or $10 million. Since the Weather Bureau is already collecting and processing large amounts of data, the extra costs for communications and preliminary analysis are estimated at $1 million a year. Thus the 5-year cost of this program would be $205 million.

H. Detailed studies of the exchange of momentum, heat, and water between ocean and atmosphere. Assuming the buoy system outlined in program G above were in operation, some of the buoys could be especially instrumented to study the exchange of momentum, heat, and water between oceans and atmosphere. Increased knowledge of the air-sea interaction process promises to provide considerable improvement in long-range weather forecasting, another area of large potential economic benefit to the peacetime economy of the United States. Studies in this area will also require the development of new obserrational tools and the use of relatively large numbers of instrumented buoys, both free, drifting, and moored. Much of the ship time required for this study would be for the setting and maintenance of recording buoys. The cost of this expanded program, excepting the costs of buoy development and procurement, and the costs of special instrumentation, which are included in G would be $1 million per year for ship operation, and $1 million for data analysis and interpretation, giving a total cost of $10 million (not including buoys and equipment budgeted in program G) for the 5-year program.

1. Some moderate-scale experiments in the modification of ocean-atmosphere exchange processes could, in some situations, greatly advance our understanding of the coupling between the two halves of the great heat engine that governs our environment. Climate control and modification must be approached cau. tiously and at first in small areas where is can be proven that the experiment is self-healing. The experiment might involve attempts to modify the surface tension of a limited area of the sea where onshore winds prevail and thus introduce more salt condensation nuclei into the atmosphere, or it might consist of encouraging upwelling, either by taking advantage of potential energy or by introducing power, as has successfully been done in lakes. The cost of a cantious series of such experiments would not be more than $1 million per year over a period of 5 years.

J. Geochemical studies of the supply of marine elements and compounds, natural and manmade, inactive and radioactive, the history of such elements in the ocean, and the exchange of these materials through the ocean boundaries. In essence, what is needed is an understanding of the rates with which matter is or may be introduced into the ocean, the routes taken by matter in passing from the land masses through the ocean to the marine sediments and the reservoirs and subreservoirs occupied by these materials while in transit. In the final analysis, our understanding of these systems is testable by predictability and control in the systems. The knowledge obtained from such studies will have broad usefulness in other parts of oceanography for the indirect determination of the character and time scales of the deep ocean circulation, for use with geological and geophysical data in planning the ultimate exploration of the sea bottom for mineral wealth, and in the experimental design and interpretation of results in marine biochemistry. This work involves the employment of highly qualified chemists and the use of the most modern analytical tools. The ratio of the costs of manpower and equipment for shore-based analysis and evaluation to ship operation costs is high compared to most of the other programs. The total annual costs for this expanded program, including cost of securing the best laboratory analytical tools would be $2 million per year for one full-time ship and a geochemical institute composed of from 15 to 20 people.

K. Detailed studies of temporal and spatial variation of standing crop and productivity of pelagic organisms in areas where general survey data are available. Knowledge of the variations in time and space of standing crops and productivity of pelagic organisms at various trophic levels, in relationship to each other, and in relationship to variations in physical and chemical properties, are of large importance with respect to the fisheries and with respect to various pollution problems, as well as being of great intrinsic interest to marine ecologists. In those areas of the sea where rather general studies of this nature have been undertaken in the past, it should be possible now to design more detailed programs to arrive at a greatly improved understanding of the trophodynamics of the pelagic community. For such detailed studies of appropriate areas in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, including both the biological studies and related studies of physical parameters and chemical parameters, it is estimated that the following will be required during a 5-year period : (a) Facilities:

Million 5 new ships..

* $10 Instrumentation

2 50 bouys (fixed automatic instrument stations).

1 (6) Operation costs : Field efforts, 5 ships per year..

25 Analysis and interpretation of data, at $10 million per year--- 50 1 Included in summary budget item 3-a.

L. Marine aquaculture. The harvest of food products from the sea is at present primarily based on hunter-prey economy. Basic knowledge now available and engineering capabilities developed in other fields can be applied with advantage to many "fisheries” problems. We propose:

(1) An experiment in farming the sea.-Such an experiment might take the form of utilizing a semienclosed arm of the sea. Bubble screens could be used to control migration. Controlled addition of nutrients would be used to increase primary production, control of undesirable predators would be attempted, as well as maintenance of the desired product at optimum levels through controlled harvest. This item is included under research since existing knowledge must be augmented by findings during the course of the experiment. The costs of the pilot-plant experiment in marine aquaculture would be $1 million per year over a 5-year period.

(2) Extending the use of anadromous fish.The greatest problem concerned with the economical exploitation of marine fishes is the difficulty of locating and capturing fish in the sea. In the case of a fishery for pelagic species such as the tunas, the chief expense involved in landing the fish may be that associated with the vessel time lost in cruising about the fishing grounds in search of schools of tuna. Coupled with this economic problem is the sociological problem connected with the long absence of fishermen from their families in the home port. That this latter aspect of fishing is a real and pressing problem is shown by the recent Japanese experience. For the first time since 1954, Japanese fishery landings in 1963 did not show an increase over the catch of the previous year. The decline occurred primarily in the Japanese distant water fisheries and is attributed to the difficulty in finding crews for these vessels in competition with factory jobs ashore in Japan's expanding industrial economy.

One obvious way to increase marine fish production and at the same time to minimize both labor and the problems of accommodating fishermen at sea for long periods is to make greater use of anadromous fish. The concentration of mature fish returning to spawn in their parent streams makes it possible to harvest the fish at their maximum growth with a minimum of labor. The most promising fish in this regard is the pacific salmon, six species of which occupy characteristic environmental niches in the rivers and lakes of western North America and eastern Asia. One species has been successfully transplanted to rivers of New Zealand. Another has recently been established by Russian efforts in rivers of Arctic European Russia, from which it has spread to Norway, Iceland, and even Greenland. These successes suggest that managed efforts to extend the ranges of the various species of Pacific salmon have good prospects of success. Several specific lines of research suggest themselves.

A. The red salmon spawns in streams tributary to lakes that empty into the ocean, Is there economic return in artificially constructing dams (with fish ladders) in rivers not now supporting runs of red salmon, in order to create a suitable environment for their development? The red salmon is an economically more important species than most of those that spawn in lakeless rivers.

B. Research seems to indicate that each salmon river has a maximum population of young fish that it can support under natural conditions. Can artificial modification of these conditions increase the river's productivity? North American trout transplanted to Andean rivers and lakes grow to sizes unheard of in their native waters. Are there species of zooplankton in these lakes that could be transplanted to red salmon lakes and increase the food supply? Can artificial fertilization likewise increase productivity ? Effluent from treated sewage often damages rivers through encouraging increased productivity of phytoplankton. Would the effect be the same in rivers in high latitudes in the summers, when photosynthesis proceeds 20 or 22 hours a day?

C. The pink salmon, an abundant fish in rivers that cannot support red salmon, has an invariant 2-year life cycle. In many of its streams, the oddyear runs are very different in abundance from the even-year runs: Two subspecies have developed without breeding contact with each other. It has been observed that in some streams odd-year fish return at a different time of year than even-year fish. Is this difference in time of spawning related to the subsequent abundance? Can eggs and sperm be held over a year under refrigeration, to permit hatcheries to stock even-year fish in the odd year or vice versa ? If such aggs are not viable, then can sperm from last year's males be held over to make hybrids of the two subspecies? And what will be the spawning period of the hybrids? The characteristics of the pink salmon lend themselves to considerable manipulation in fish farming.

D. The potentiality of interspecific hybrids between other species of salmon should not be overlooked. The possibilities of developing races with hybrid vigor, which mature more rapidly, or develop at some point in their life cycle in a way that enables them to escape predators whose way of feeding on them had been adapted to suit the characteristics of one of their parents seems as good as the success of our ancestors with mules and our own generation with hybrid corn. This program is estimated at $1.5 million per year.

(3) Transplantation of marine organisms.-Agriculture in North America depends on introduced species. All our domestic animals are introductions except the turkey; our crops are introductions except cranberries, tobacco, and grapevines. Yet in aquaculture, we depend almost solely on the native species. The exceptions are well known: the Atlantic and Japanese oyster on the Pacific Coast; the striped bass and shad on the Pacific; rainbow trout in the drainage systems east of the Rockies. Some accidental introductions of predators are also well known: the sea lamprey in the Great Lakes, the oyster drill in the Pacific. Yet, around the world, there are environments from which important foodfishes are missing to which their introduction should be considered, and there are even examples of accidental introductions with considerable economic significance. One such is the Chesapeake blue crab, which was apparently carried in ballast tanks of tankers running between Norfolk and Haifa and which has become firmly established in suitable estuarine environments in the coastal waters of Israel. (Incidentally, it is not being harvested there because of dietary restrictions against its use.) Another example is a series of Indo-Pacific fishes which are found in Mediterranean waters as a result of migrating through the Suez Canal. Several years ago, the mullet on which the sea fisheries of Israel depended declined greatly in abundance, probably as a result of several years of high temperature conditions which affected the survival of successive year classes. One of the related Indian Ocean species, self-introduced through the Suez Canal now that the excess salt in the Bitter Lakes (the former faunal barrier) has been leached out, increased greatly in abundance and took the place of the scarce Mediterranean mullet in the local fishery. This observation suggests the possibility of introduction of species related to the Pacific sardine to replace the native fish whose abundance has been reduced so drastically through causes still not yet well understood. This program is estimated at $1.2 million per year.

Modern engineering should be applied to improve existing techniques and develop radically new methods for fish harvesting, handling, processing, and storage of fish at sea, and improvement in fishing vessel design. Several technological areas seem particularly ripe for further development at this time. Some of these are: Better navigation-efficient fishing for benthic and pelagic fishes requires precision navigation. Current navigational devices are relatively accurate within 300 miles of shore, but over much of the open ocean, precision navigation is lacking. Existing navigational services should be extended and satellite navigation and communication systems developed. Funds for better navigation are included in item 6 of the summary budget.

(4) Facsimile reports of oceanographic features as related to tuna and other pelagic fish distribution are needed. A system using buoys, ships, satellites, and radio communications could supply data on oceanographic and biological features, weather and catch data from the fishing vessels to be analyzed by computers and reprogramed via facsimile reports to fishermen operating at sea. The cost of developing and installing such a system is estimated at $2.8 million.

(5) The improvement of search techniques is of particular economic importance. Better resolution and interpretative data can be achieved by refinements and modifications of existing acoustic devices. The further development of FM Doppler acoustic instruments is particularly attractive. “Sniffers,” sensing devices capable of detecting extremely small quantities of substances given off by schools of fish should be developed. If systems could be devised to detect the paths of passing schools, and if directional gradients could be resolved, tracking of fish would be possible through mechanical means. Use of infrared and laserscopes should be studied. The ultimate for determining large-scale patterns of fish distribution would be a device that would allow aerial surveillance through the air-water interface. The cost of this program is estimated at $1.5 million per year.

Concentrating organisms.—The harvest of fishes in most near-shore regions is assisted by natural processes that tend to aggregate fishes in particular regions at particular times. In most of the open ocean, however, no such mechanism or phenomenon exists.

(6) Guidance, herding, or attracting systems for concentrating organisms should be developed. Some preliminary success has been achieved through electrotaxis in collecting fish in seines, and using electricity to drive shrimp from the ocean bed and into the path of an oncoming trawl. German investigators have had some success in attracting fish by reproduction of certain natural sounds, and whales and porpoises can be called from distances as much as several miles. Of even greater potential is the use of chemical substances to attract or herd fish to designated areas. The use of electrical fields, air bubble curtains, chemical curtains, light, and sound still requires considerable investigation before their usefulness can be evaluated. A program of investigating such systems at the rate of $1.5 million annually over a 5-year period would result in a payoff worth many times that amount in succeeding decades.

Although existing fishing nets and other gear could doubtless be improved through hydrodynamic studies, it would appear more desirable to develop harvest systems that forego the use of nets. For example, extension of the pump systems now employed by the Soviets to harvest anchovy-like fishes and saury might be considered along with physiochemical techniques employed to aggregate or corral fish.

Vessel engineering could improve existing types and provide entirely new concepts in fishing vessel design. Thought should be directed toward improving deck layouts for new fishing operations and for handling, processing, and storage of the fish once brought aboard. Studies into the feasibility of using atomic powered units should be made.

Other ideas worthy of study, but not budgeted in this report, are:

1. In the eastern Pacific tunas and porpoise commonly school together. What is the nature of this attraction? Could it be used for herding or attracting the tunas? Could porpoise be trained as decoys?

2. Use atomic reactors as a source of heat to trigger unstabilities to produce artificial upwelling in special areas and thus increase the fertility of surface waters.

3. Use of submarines, perhaps remotely controlled, for locating and capturing schools of fish or invertebrates.

4. Development of economical harvest techniques for plankton and methods for processing it into an attractive human food.

M. Use of vessels of opportunity (merchant ships, fishing ships, and Navy vessels) for rapid repeated synoptic mapping of biological and associated physical and chemical properties. Because of the spotty distributions of organisms, and because of the rapidity of changes in populations of organisms at the lower end of the food chain, it appears not possible to obtain synoptic mapping or rea

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